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If You Say Something Is “Likely,” How Likely Do People Think It Is?

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Re: If You Say Something Is “Likely,” How Likely Do People Think It Is?

#11

Post by crispyambulance »

It depends on the context.

Hillary Clinton had a >70% of winning the US presidential election according to the most responsible analyses (see 538: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/).

Most folks took 70% to mean that she would certainly win and were bitterly disappointed the morning after.

On the other hand no sane person would (willingly) play Russian roulette with a 70% or even 5 of 6 chance of "winning".

In everyday life, one conflates probability with severity of outcome. This is normal and is part of how people assess and act on risk in a qualitative way.

Re: If You Say Something Is “Likely,” How Likely Do People Think It Is?

#12

Post by pacificpendant »

When people say things like "serious possibility" they are not merely intending to alter the perception of the likelihood but also attempting to impress upon the listener the gravity of the event.

In cold war era America would people have felt any different knowing that a Russian invasion was only 20% likely rather than 30%? For something so /serious/ any non-zero probability is something that should be prepared for.

Re: If You Say Something Is “Likely,” How Likely Do People Think It Is?

#13

Post by lifeisstillgood »

crispyambulance wrote: post #11

It depends on the context. Hillary Clinton had a >70% of winning the US presidential election according to the most responsible analyses (see 538: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ ). Most folks took 70% to mean that she would certainly win and were bitterly disappointed the morning after. On the other hand no sane person would (willingly) play Russian roulette with a 70% or even 5 of 6 cha…

That's probably the first time I have mapped Russian Roulette odds to percentages - and 83% chance used to look pretty good.

Now I understand Robert Downey Jrs maths skills in Kiss Kiss Bang Bang.

Re: If You Say Something Is “Likely,” How Likely Do People Think It Is?

#14

Post by jmount »

Another fun one: Fermi's definition of "remote possibility" as a chance of no more than 1 in 10. (Scary when talking about the odds of initiating a chain reaction, making a small atomic weapon, or even igniting the atmosphere in the first atomic test.)

https://books.google.com/books?id=2G2TlJOhGI8C&pg=PA280&lpg=...

Re: If You Say Something Is “Likely,” How Likely Do People Think It Is?

#15

Post by tgb »

kashyapc wrote: post #6

That impreciseness is one reason why William Zinsser in his book, On Writing Well , argues: - "Get rid of the adjective-by-habit." - "Don't hedge your prose with little timidities. Good writing is lean and confident."

Why not just say "with timidities"?

Re: If You Say Something Is “Likely,” How Likely Do People Think It Is?

#16

Post by smallnamespace »

crispyambulance wrote: post #11

It depends on the context. Hillary Clinton had a >70% of winning the US presidential election according to the most responsible analyses (see 538: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ ). Most folks took 70% to mean that she would certainly win and were bitterly disappointed the morning after. On the other hand no sane person would (willingly) play Russian roulette with a 70% or even 5 of 6 cha…

> In everyday life, one conflates probability with severity of outcome

Probability * (new status - old status) = Expected Payoff

Re: If You Say Something Is “Likely,” How Likely Do People Think It Is?

#17

Post by ska »

twiss wrote: post #2

Using numbers for probabilities is not a panacea either, when those numbers are not the result of a calculation. One person might say "99% of the time" to mean "almost always", and another person might say "9 out of 10 times" to mean exactly the same thing. The problem is that it's hard to estimate the probability of something that you know happens "almost always" without doing the counting, which most people don't d…

This is somewhere that common usage and mathematical usage diverge strongly. To anyone versed in measure theory talking about "almost always" wrt probability will mean that there is zero probability of the event not happening (even thought there may be other outcomes in the space).

Re: If You Say Something Is “Likely,” How Likely Do People Think It Is?

#18

Post by dsr_ »

Related: RFC 2119, https://www.ietf.org/rfc/rfc2119.txt

which defines the key words "MUST", "MUST NOT", "REQUIRED", "SHALL", "SHALL NOT", "SHOULD", "SHOULD NOT", "RECOMMENDED", "MAY", and "OPTIONAL". Most subsequent RFCs begin with a reference to it.

Re: If You Say Something Is “Likely,” How Likely Do People Think It Is?

#19

Post by resu_nimda »

kashyapc wrote: post #6

That impreciseness is one reason why William Zinsser in his book, On Writing Well , argues: - "Get rid of the adjective-by-habit." - "Don't hedge your prose with little timidities. Good writing is lean and confident."

"Don't hedge your prose with little timidities. Good writing is lean and confident."

This is a separate issue, and one I would disagree with. In fact I feel like this is a problematic attitude in our culture. Too many people overconfidently asserting their subjective viewpoints. Real life is full of nuance, gray area, second-guessing, and different perspectives; simple bold assertions usually don't hold water.

David Foster Wallace, considered one of the greatest writers of recent times, filled his writings with qualifications, side notes, devil's advocacy, and at times insecure waffling. To me this is a more accurate reflection of the mind and reality and should not be suppressed for a macho bravado façade.

Re: If You Say Something Is “Likely,” How Likely Do People Think It Is?

#20

Post by GuB-42 »

It also depends on the individual. And as you get to know people better, you tend to interpret their probabilities better.

Take the question "are you coming?". "Maybe" can mean "yes, except in case of nuclear war" to "not unless you kidnap me", depending on the person.

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