Three facts from “Our World in Data” that everyone should know • Hacker News Board

Re: Three facts from “Our World in Data” that everyone should know

#11

Post by amingilani » Thu, Jun 28, 2018, 9:09 AM UTC

ItsMe000001 wrote: post #5

amingilani wrote: post #3

Relevant Kurzgesagt video on overpopulation: https://youtu.be/QsBT5EQt348 I learnt about the overpopulation myth during my undergrad, but I'm continuously surprised by how many people (including Thanos) didn't know this. Edit: Here's a chart of expected population growths. It's expected to start slowing down[1] [1]: Select WORLD from the menu: https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Graphs/Probabilistic/POP/TOT/

I don't see why you called it myth. Just because it sort of works short term does not tell you anything about long term consequences. Earth has changed drastically with all the humans on it. You need a lot of optimism about solutions for global warming and pollution. The linked short "feel good" video asks an extreme question "Will this lead to the end of our civilization?" (pretend the other side made a ridiculous c…

I think you misunderstand, the video isn't a happy colorful animation about an optimistic conclusion to humanity's problems. It discusses one specific problem: over-population. And distills a ton of data collected over the several decades to offer the conclusion.

Historical evidence supports that a decrease in mortality rates is followed by a decrease in birth rate. Here, check out the data for yourself[1]

The theory of population growth leading to resource depletion is fairly old. Thomas Malthus published this in 1798[2], but guess what: we're all still alive, despite growing over 7 billion in size, and the empirical evidence debunked this theory. There are a fairly large number of theories why this didn't happen, but that's off topic.

My point is:

- The shortage of resource because of over-population is an old theory, but we've seen no evidence to it yet.

- Population growth eventually slows down when the mortality rate decreases.

- The population growth rate is expected to begin slowing[3]

- Colorful animations help people understand a point, but that doesn't necessarily mean they're wrong.

[1]: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/Demographic-Transition-Mi...

[2]:https://www.intelligenteconomist.com/malthusian-theory/

[3]:https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Graphs/Probabilistic/POP/TOT/

Re: Three facts from “Our World in Data” that everyone should know

#12

Post by amingilani » Thu, Jun 28, 2018, 9:12 AM UTC

lancebeet wrote: post #6

WA wrote: post #2

There is a fantastic video by Hans Rosling about the global population growth and why global population might actually stall around 10 billion people: https://www.ted.com/talks/hans_rosling_on_global_population_... This relates to fact 2 in the article.

His foundation's website also has some really nice data visualizations: https://www.gapminder.org/tools/

Here's a UN chart: https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Graphs/Probabilistic/POP/TOT/

Re: Three facts from “Our World in Data” that everyone should know

#13

Post by alberto_ol » Thu, Jun 28, 2018, 9:18 AM UTC

rubyn00bie wrote: post #4

If you want more facts like this I’d highly suggest anything but Steven Pinker especially: https://www.amazon.com/Better-Angels-Our-Nature-Violence/dp/...

I am always confused buy the expression "anything but". I assume you want to suggest that people should read the Pinker's book, but I think it could be interpreted also as read everything except that book. https://english.stackexchange.com/questions/8061/what-is-the...

Re: Three facts from “Our World in Data” that everyone should know

#14

Post by ItsMe000001 » Thu, Jun 28, 2018, 9:18 AM UTC

amingilani wrote: post #11

ItsMe000001 wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't see why you called it myth. Just because it sort of works short term does not tell you anything about long term consequences. Earth has changed drastically with all the humans on it. You need a lot of optimism about solutions for global warming and pollution. The linked short "feel good" video asks an extreme question "Will this lead to the end of our civilization?" (pretend the other side made a ridiculous c…

I think you misunderstand, the video isn't a happy colorful animation about an optimistic conclusion to humanity's problems. It discusses one specific problem : over-population. And distills a ton of data collected over the several decades to offer the conclusion. Historical evidence supports that a decrease in mortality rates is followed by a decrease in birth rate. Here, check out the data for yourself[1] The theor…

> It discusses one specific problem: over-population

As I said, they make exactly zero effort to say anything of substance about that issue. Key word is "over". I refer back to my comment. They say something about "population" - but the vital "over-" part is not addressed at all. For good reason, that's a complex topic with mostly unknowns.

> Colorful animations help people understand a point, but that doesn't necessarily mean they're wrong.

If there is no substance and the topic is complex and big than that alone is wrong already.

Re: Three facts from “Our World in Data” that everyone should know

#15

Post by vosper » Thu, Jun 28, 2018, 9:29 AM UTC

alberto_ol wrote: post #13

rubyn00bie wrote: post #4

If you want more facts like this I’d highly suggest anything but Steven Pinker especially: https://www.amazon.com/Better-Angels-Our-Nature-Violence/dp/...

I am always confused buy the expression "anything but". I assume you want to suggest that people should read the Pinker's book, but I think it could be interpreted also as read everything except that book. https://english.stackexchange.com/questions/8061/what-is-the...

I think “anything but” was just a typo for “anything by”

Re: Three facts from “Our World in Data” that everyone should know

#16

Post by mnx » Thu, Jun 28, 2018, 9:41 AM UTC

vosper wrote: post #15

alberto_ol wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am always confused buy the expression "anything but". I assume you want to suggest that people should read the Pinker's book, but I think it could be interpreted also as read everything except that book. https://english.stackexchange.com/questions/8061/what-is-the...

I think “anything but” was just a typo for “anything by”

For full correctness, it should be "... anything by Steven Pinker, especially..."

Re: Three facts from “Our World in Data” that everyone should know

#17

Post by [deleted] » Thu, Jun 28, 2018, 9:43 AM UTC

BerislavLopac wrote: post #8

TangoTrotFox wrote: post #7

I'm curious about one thing. Like the article alludes to there is currently an extremely strong connection between fertility and low education, low income, and high religiosity. This [1] is a list of nations by net natural population growth. So births - deaths. From the top (according to UN predictions for 2015-2020): Uganda, Angola, Mali, Somalia, Tanzania, etc. From the bottom on nations that are collectively dying…

> But what happens when the part of society that is living in economically stable and educated households > is not even reproducing to the point of replacing itself, while those living in low education and low > income households are massively reproducing? Migration is what happens. Followed by integration.

[deleted]

Re: Three facts from “Our World in Data” that everyone should know

#18

Post by radicalbyte » Thu, Jun 28, 2018, 9:52 AM UTC

TangoTrotFox wrote: post #7

I'm curious about one thing. Like the article alludes to there is currently an extremely strong connection between fertility and low education, low income, and high religiosity. This [1] is a list of nations by net natural population growth. So births - deaths. From the top (according to UN predictions for 2015-2020): Uganda, Angola, Mali, Somalia, Tanzania, etc. From the bottom on nations that are collectively dying…

Within a nation this is a very good argument for taxation and wealth redistribution. You have to give those kids born to poorer parents a chance. It's better for them, it's better for you, it's better for everyone.

It's also what Gates is kind of doing - redistributing his wealth to help the people who most need it.

Re: Three facts from “Our World in Data” that everyone should know

#19

Post by TangoTrotFox » Thu, Jun 28, 2018, 9:53 AM UTC

BerislavLopac wrote: post #8

TangoTrotFox wrote: post #7

I'm curious about one thing. Like the article alludes to there is currently an extremely strong connection between fertility and low education, low income, and high religiosity. This [1] is a list of nations by net natural population growth. So births - deaths. From the top (according to UN predictions for 2015-2020): Uganda, Angola, Mali, Somalia, Tanzania, etc. From the bottom on nations that are collectively dying…

> But what happens when the part of society that is living in economically stable and educated households > is not even reproducing to the point of replacing itself, while those living in low education and low > income households are massively reproducing? Migration is what happens. Followed by integration.

Can you explain how you see this as a solution?

We can view this problem on any scale as it seems to be applicable everywhere. On a world scale the fundamental issue is that people who are of low education, low income, and high religiosity are increasingly the ones primarily repopulating our planet. This means that any given child is more and more likely to be born into this sort of circumstance. And many of these characteristics tend to pass from parent to child. It matters not what chunk of land they call home.

Re: Three facts from “Our World in Data” that everyone should know

#20

Post by fwdpropaganda » Thu, Jun 28, 2018, 10:22 AM UTC

ItsMe000001 wrote: post #5

amingilani wrote: post #3

Relevant Kurzgesagt video on overpopulation: https://youtu.be/QsBT5EQt348 I learnt about the overpopulation myth during my undergrad, but I'm continuously surprised by how many people (including Thanos) didn't know this. Edit: Here's a chart of expected population growths. It's expected to start slowing down[1] [1]: Select WORLD from the menu: https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Graphs/Probabilistic/POP/TOT/

I don't see why you called it myth. Just because it sort of works short term does not tell you anything about long term consequences. Earth has changed drastically with all the humans on it. You need a lot of optimism about solutions for global warming and pollution. The linked short "feel good" video asks an extreme question "Will this lead to the end of our civilization?" (pretend the other side made a ridiculous c…

> You need a lot of optimism about solutions for global warming and pollution.

I disagree. Unless you can show me a first-principle calculation for why a specific number should be "too much", then I don't think it's reasonable to assume that we're either above or below such a number. Don't get me wrong: I agree that such a number must exist. But you seem certain that we're above it, which isn't based on anything as far as I can tell.