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The Future of Tesla Hinges on This Gigantic Tent

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Re: The Future of Tesla Hinges on This Gigantic Tent

#11

Post by rossdavidh »

aresant wrote: post #3

The Tesla story has effectively become a manufacturing story. Can they meet production targets? Can they maintain product quality while they scale? Will they run out of money before they solve the CapEx intensive, low margin problem of automobile manufacturing!!!? Despite the scrapiness of the "build a gigantic tent" story it's a bizarre risk. Musk's desire for full vertical integration obviously mirror's that of Ste…

I'm not sure the "let's build it in China" route would have worked out well here. If you're building something that's just like what lots of other people are building, you can probably outsource it to somewhere that's already building something like that for other people. If you're building something that's not, then putting the manufacturing on the other side of the planet in a different company's hands, is suicide.

Re: The Future of Tesla Hinges on This Gigantic Tent

#12

Post by rossdavidh »

Animats wrote: post #7

The previous word from Musk was that they just had some minor problems with their production line and were on track to ramp up to the normal production rate for the line. Starting up a new line for a new model sometimes takes quite a while, and Tesla had a much more optimistic schedule than is normal in the auto industry. But they seemed to be getting that under control. Now they're operating a temporary manual assem…

Not really a coverup any more. He has already admitted that they went full-in on robotic automation that has not worked out.

Re: The Future of Tesla Hinges on This Gigantic Tent

#13

Post by dingo_bat »

rossdavidh wrote: post #11
aresant wrote: post #3

The Tesla story has effectively become a manufacturing story. Can they meet production targets? Can they maintain product quality while they scale? Will they run out of money before they solve the CapEx intensive, low margin problem of automobile manufacturing!!!? Despite the scrapiness of the "build a gigantic tent" story it's a bizarre risk. Musk's desire for full vertical integration obviously mirror's that of Ste…

I'm not sure the "let's build it in China" route would have worked out well here. If you're building something that's just like what lots of other people are building, you can probably outsource it to somewhere that's already building something like that for other people. If you're building something that's not, then putting the manufacturing on the other side of the planet in a different company's hands, is suicide.

Exactly, if the company is not able to convert its designs to product right here, how will they do that same thing but thousands of miles away in China?

Re: The Future of Tesla Hinges on This Gigantic Tent

#14

Post by ux-app »

djrogers wrote: post #8
aslkdjaslkdj1 wrote: post #2

“The existing line isn’t functional, it can’t build cars as planned and there isn’t room to get people into work stations to replace the non-functioning robots,” Warburton said in an email. “So here we have it—build cars manually in the parking lot.” This theory makes sense to me. Changing a over-automated line to one that is safe to use by humans must be way more expensive and time consuming then just rebuilding the…

Why would a car built in a 40+ year old factory have lower defect rates than one built in a tent? Honest question here...

FTA: "The chaos of how Musk is going about this makes it difficult for him to provide the standardized, repeatable work routines that allow people to function"

It's not so much the tent that's the issue. It's more to do with the "fk it, we're in a bind, quick, everyone in the tent" approach which is raising eyebrows. Say what you want about Tesla, but they do make for interesting watching. I'll be grabbing my popcorn for this new episode in the story :)

Re: The Future of Tesla Hinges on This Gigantic Tent

#15

Post by [deleted] »

djrogers wrote: post #8
aslkdjaslkdj1 wrote: post #2

“The existing line isn’t functional, it can’t build cars as planned and there isn’t room to get people into work stations to replace the non-functioning robots,” Warburton said in an email. “So here we have it—build cars manually in the parking lot.” This theory makes sense to me. Changing a over-automated line to one that is safe to use by humans must be way more expensive and time consuming then just rebuilding the…

Why would a car built in a 40+ year old factory have lower defect rates than one built in a tent? Honest question here...

[deleted]

Re: The Future of Tesla Hinges on This Gigantic Tent

#16

Post by dingo_bat »

djrogers wrote: post #8
aslkdjaslkdj1 wrote: post #2

“The existing line isn’t functional, it can’t build cars as planned and there isn’t room to get people into work stations to replace the non-functioning robots,” Warburton said in an email. “So here we have it—build cars manually in the parking lot.” This theory makes sense to me. Changing a over-automated line to one that is safe to use by humans must be way more expensive and time consuming then just rebuilding the…

Why would a car built in a 40+ year old factory have lower defect rates than one built in a tent? Honest question here...

I don't think the factory is 40 years old. They built it in the last 5 years.

Re: The Future of Tesla Hinges on This Gigantic Tent

#17

Post by paxys »

aresant wrote: post #3

The Tesla story has effectively become a manufacturing story. Can they meet production targets? Can they maintain product quality while they scale? Will they run out of money before they solve the CapEx intensive, low margin problem of automobile manufacturing!!!? Despite the scrapiness of the "build a gigantic tent" story it's a bizarre risk. Musk's desire for full vertical integration obviously mirror's that of Ste…

Remember that China has had expertise in manufacturing personal electronics since well before the iPhone. Cars, not so much.

Re: The Future of Tesla Hinges on This Gigantic Tent

#18

Post by maxerickson »

djrogers wrote: post #8
aslkdjaslkdj1 wrote: post #2

“The existing line isn’t functional, it can’t build cars as planned and there isn’t room to get people into work stations to replace the non-functioning robots,” Warburton said in an email. “So here we have it—build cars manually in the parking lot.” This theory makes sense to me. Changing a over-automated line to one that is safe to use by humans must be way more expensive and time consuming then just rebuilding the…

Why would a car built in a 40+ year old factory have lower defect rates than one built in a tent? Honest question here...

The building and the tent is the wrong comparison. The right comparison is between a well setup assembly line (say at some other automaker) and one tossed together in a parking lot.

Re: The Future of Tesla Hinges on This Gigantic Tent

#19

Post by pranjalv123 »

djrogers wrote: post #8
aslkdjaslkdj1 wrote: post #2

“The existing line isn’t functional, it can’t build cars as planned and there isn’t room to get people into work stations to replace the non-functioning robots,” Warburton said in an email. “So here we have it—build cars manually in the parking lot.” This theory makes sense to me. Changing a over-automated line to one that is safe to use by humans must be way more expensive and time consuming then just rebuilding the…

Why would a car built in a 40+ year old factory have lower defect rates than one built in a tent? Honest question here...

Because you've had 40 years to iron out any problems on the line.

Re: The Future of Tesla Hinges on This Gigantic Tent

#20

Post by [deleted] »

Animats wrote: post #10
aresant wrote: post #3

The Tesla story has effectively become a manufacturing story. Can they meet production targets? Can they maintain product quality while they scale? Will they run out of money before they solve the CapEx intensive, low margin problem of automobile manufacturing!!!? Despite the scrapiness of the "build a gigantic tent" story it's a bizarre risk. Musk's desire for full vertical integration obviously mirror's that of Ste…

Musk's desire for full vertical integration One reason for Tesla's vertical integration may be that they want ordinary components like seats done Their Way, but they don't buy in big enough quantities to get major suppliers to do that. This is why you see a lot of high-end but low volume cars with Recaro-branded seats.

[deleted]
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