I don't understand. I know what [hf]odl mean. Can anyone tell me what these charts and conclusions are trying to communicate here? edit: I mistakenly assumed the HN would the understand the regex of "[hf]odl" was just a clever way of saying hodl/fodl. No need for more comments explaining those terms.
HODLometer – was it better to HODL or trade?
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Re: HODLometer – was it better to HODL or trade?
#12Sure it shows the algorithm beats a hold strategy in 8/10 instances...
...but the "hodlometer.com" domain was registered 3 days ago.
It's trivial to develop an algorithm by cherry-picking parameters that will give any desired results for historical data.
But there's vast research on how it's impossible to predict/beat the market like this in reality [1], and this site is obviously designed to prey on the uneducated and naive.
[1] For a good intro, see chapter 5 of "A Random Walk Down Wall Street" which talks about "technical analysis", which is exactly what HODLometer is doing -- https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0393352242
Re: HODLometer – was it better to HODL or trade?
#13So if everyone follows this guidance then it would more or less work like a pump and dump?
Re: HODLometer – was it better to HODL or trade?
#14The philosophy behind HODL is that you need to hold for 5-10 years plus in order for the strategy to work. The 1-year timespan in the graphs on the site are way too short.
If you want to cherry pick a point to "disprove" HODL, just look at the fact that in November 2013 Bitcoin traded at an eye-watering $950+, and then for 2.5 years beat a steady retreat to $400.
At this point, bitcoin can taper down to $3K in value till 2020 and we would not have seen anything new in terms of relative price movement over a fix timespan.
For those who have watched bitcoin for a while, 2018 is just 2014 all over again, except this time a lot more people are paying attention.
Re: HODLometer – was it better to HODL or trade?
#15I don't understand. I know what [hf]odl mean. Can anyone tell me what these charts and conclusions are trying to communicate here? edit: I mistakenly assumed the HN would the understand the regex of "[hf]odl" was just a clever way of saying hodl/fodl. No need for more comments explaining those terms.
Basically if it was more profitable to sell the rips or buy the dips.
Re: HODLometer – was it better to HODL or trade?
#16The philosophy behind HODL is that you need to hold for 5-10 years plus in order for the strategy to work. The 1-year timespan in the graphs on the site are way too short. If you want to cherry pick a point to "disprove" HODL, just look at the fact that in November 2013 Bitcoin traded at an eye-watering $950+, and then for 2.5 years beat a steady retreat to $400. At this point, bitcoin can taper down to $3K in value…
What's the reasoning behind the philosophy?
Re: HODLometer – was it better to HODL or trade?
#17Sure it shows the algorithm beats a hold strategy in 8/10 instances... ...but the "hodlometer.com" domain was registered 3 days ago. It's trivial to develop an algorithm by cherry-picking parameters that will give any desired results for historical data. But there's vast research on how it's impossible to predict/beat the market like this in reality [1], and this site is obviously designed to prey on the uneducated a…
People who know a thing or two about finance are having the time of their lives watching Bitcoin evangelists genuinely believe in technical analysis and not understand that it's on the level of astrology and tarot cards as far as usefulness in predicting prices. (And that's in a fair market. On Bitcoin exchanges, where it's certain that the exchanges are using every trick in the book-- frontrunning, painting the tape, wash trading etc.-- to stack the deck and extract extra value from your trades, technical analysis is even more useless)
Re: HODLometer – was it better to HODL or trade?
#18Sure it shows the algorithm beats a hold strategy in 8/10 instances... ...but the "hodlometer.com" domain was registered 3 days ago. It's trivial to develop an algorithm by cherry-picking parameters that will give any desired results for historical data. But there's vast research on how it's impossible to predict/beat the market like this in reality [1], and this site is obviously designed to prey on the uneducated a…
I notice that the N in "N days return" is different for each currency shown. The cherry picking here isn't even subtle!
Re: HODLometer – was it better to HODL or trade?
#19Sure it shows the algorithm beats a hold strategy in 8/10 instances... ...but the "hodlometer.com" domain was registered 3 days ago. It's trivial to develop an algorithm by cherry-picking parameters that will give any desired results for historical data. But there's vast research on how it's impossible to predict/beat the market like this in reality [1], and this site is obviously designed to prey on the uneducated a…
People who know a thing or two about finance are having the time of their lives watching Bitcoin evangelists genuinely believe in technical analysis and not understand that it's on the level of astrology and tarot cards as far as usefulness in predicting prices. (And that's in a fair market. On Bitcoin exchanges, where it's certain that the exchanges are using every trick in the book-- frontrunning, painting the tape…
There is a basic pattern (bubble/pop/settle) but for any advantage you have to know better than someone else. There's been a number of images showing graphs scaled and overlaid over other graphs. There's quite possibly good reasons for the correlation in shapes, but it is also quite useless for investment. You might know something will probably happen but you don't know when or at what speed.
Once you go past the patterns that everyone can plainly see, you are looking for patterns in what appears to be noise to everyone else. Accurate future predictions is really the only way to tell if it is anything other than staring at tea leaves.
Re: HODLometer – was it better to HODL or trade?
#20The philosophy behind HODL is that you need to hold for 5-10 years plus in order for the strategy to work. The 1-year timespan in the graphs on the site are way too short. If you want to cherry pick a point to "disprove" HODL, just look at the fact that in November 2013 Bitcoin traded at an eye-watering $950+, and then for 2.5 years beat a steady retreat to $400. At this point, bitcoin can taper down to $3K in value…
What's the reasoning behind the philosophy?
Bitcoin's a deflating currency; there's a fixed number that will ever be mined, and a number are lost to forgotten private keys etc, and so the supply will only ever go downwards.
Meanwhile, if its boosters can actually keep it in the news, build things with it, and use it as a currency, demand for it in the long run will continue going up. This is the other unspoken assumption of HODLing, unspoken because most people don't want it explicitly known that they're hyping & propagandizing, but pretty apparent in their actions. This is also not true in the short run; hype cycles like what we saw in Dec 2017 are impossible to sustain forever, which is why the price today is significantly lower than it was then, which is why HODLing only works on long (5-10 year) timespans rather than short ones.
Reduced supply + increased demand = higher price.