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What happened last time it was as warm as it’s going to get later this century?

arstechnica.com

11–20 of 59 posts

Re: What happened last time it was as warm as it’s going to get later this century?

#11
post #4

Does anyone know if there is any party or even organization anywhere right now pushing proper utilization of the free market to at least internalize the current cost of CO2 emissions (though that by itself could not solve the historical lack). It seems like this would actually be one of the few places where a free market should work extremely well: simply set the price of emitting a ton of CO2 at the ratcheted price…

> Anyone who could meet a minimum volume level (the whole point is massive industrial scale removal)

Just shard your operation so that no one "company" exceeds that level.

Re: What happened last time it was as warm as it’s going to get later this century?

#12

Global warming is real and humans contribute to it. Just stating that so I am not called a 'denier' as I have been before. That being said, the computer models predicting what the consequences of global warming will be, have greatly over estimated (at least the timeline of) real world impacts. Since I was a kid I've heard in the news that in the next 5 years or 10 years there will be all these catastrophes linked to…

Yeah the media's bias for sensationalism has really bitten us on the ass on this one. Of course they're going to heavily report anything that can be interpreted as "the world is ending", and now there is a boy who cried wolf effect whenever they report anything on global warming.

The media should be more responsible about this kind of thing.

Re: What happened last time it was as warm as it’s going to get later this century?

#13
post #4

Does anyone know if there is any party or even organization anywhere right now pushing proper utilization of the free market to at least internalize the current cost of CO2 emissions (though that by itself could not solve the historical lack). It seems like this would actually be one of the few places where a free market should work extremely well: simply set the price of emitting a ton of CO2 at the ratcheted price…

You keep saying "The government" - we have lots of governments, with a lot of variation in how effective and corrupt they are. I'd expect that in total a lot of people would get the permission to exit CO2, a lot of money would be exchanged and somehow very little CO2 would actually be extracted.

Maybe if we had a single "world government" but then the cure (not to the mention the process required to get to that state) might be worse than the disease!

Re: What happened last time it was as warm as it’s going to get later this century?

#14
post #4

Does anyone know if there is any party or even organization anywhere right now pushing proper utilization of the free market to at least internalize the current cost of CO2 emissions (though that by itself could not solve the historical lack). It seems like this would actually be one of the few places where a free market should work extremely well: simply set the price of emitting a ton of CO2 at the ratcheted price…

Carbon pricing is a feature of most interpretations of Georgist economics, a model that proposes fees on the industrial consumption of things that are or should be commonly owned (air, water, the radio spectrum, fossil fuels, etc), and redistributing the income. The Alaska Permanent Fund is an example - companies are charged a hefty fee for extracting Alaskan oil, which goes into a trust fund. That trust is then distributed equally to all Alaskan residents.

This is probably a more effective approach than the usual cap-and-trade carbon tax models.

Re: What happened last time it was as warm as it’s going to get later this century?

#15
post #4

Does anyone know if there is any party or even organization anywhere right now pushing proper utilization of the free market to at least internalize the current cost of CO2 emissions (though that by itself could not solve the historical lack). It seems like this would actually be one of the few places where a free market should work extremely well: simply set the price of emitting a ton of CO2 at the ratcheted price…

That sounds like Citizens Climate Lobby, which supports a carbon tax with a tax on imports from countries that don't implement a similar carbon tax.

Re: What happened last time it was as warm as it’s going to get later this century?

#16
post #5
post #4

Does anyone know if there is any party or even organization anywhere right now pushing proper utilization of the free market to at least internalize the current cost of CO2 emissions (though that by itself could not solve the historical lack). It seems like this would actually be one of the few places where a free market should work extremely well: simply set the price of emitting a ton of CO2 at the ratcheted price…

So far the free market has failed spectacularly at addressing global warming.

The free market has never been used to address global warming (it's badly used in general in fact, possibly in part because few people seem to actually understand what it is or even internalize that it's a tool at all, not an end, and like any tool there are applications it is a poor fit for). Amongst the foundational requirements for a free market to work at all is that the price should embody all costs. There are some problems of course where this simply isn't very practical, particularly ones that are heavily non-linear/non-reversible. But that's not the case for carbon emissions, in fact it's a pretty good fit. The problem is "release of fossil/long term stored carbon into the atmosphere", it's easy to measure at various points at the fuel level, and since it's a gas that will evenly diffuse worldwide and is uniform removal from the atmosphere can take place anywhere in the world by anyone using any method. That makes it well suited to abstraction, with a market system on each side of the equation and government acting as a pivot. Wouldn't even require global buy-in to make a difference given that the energy market is primarily globalized anyway, if a few major polities decided to require it and also made access to their own markets take it into account it'd have a major effect no matter what anyone else wanted.

Re: What happened last time it was as warm as it’s going to get later this century?

#17
post #4

Does anyone know if there is any party or even organization anywhere right now pushing proper utilization of the free market to at least internalize the current cost of CO2 emissions (though that by itself could not solve the historical lack). It seems like this would actually be one of the few places where a free market should work extremely well: simply set the price of emitting a ton of CO2 at the ratcheted price…

> Anyone who could meet a minimum volume level (the whole point is massive industrial scale removal) Just shard your operation so that no one "company" exceeds that level.

I don't understand what you're saying here, could you clarify? Why would an operation want to be prevented from bidding on collecting the money from carbon removal?

Re: What happened last time it was as warm as it’s going to get later this century?

#18

Global warming is real and humans contribute to it. Just stating that so I am not called a 'denier' as I have been before. That being said, the computer models predicting what the consequences of global warming will be, have greatly over estimated (at least the timeline of) real world impacts. Since I was a kid I've heard in the news that in the next 5 years or 10 years there will be all these catastrophes linked to…

With regards to England, it is slowly going that direction. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/12/often-does-snow-...

Re: What happened last time it was as warm as it’s going to get later this century?

#19
post #6
post #4

Does anyone know if there is any party or even organization anywhere right now pushing proper utilization of the free market to at least internalize the current cost of CO2 emissions (though that by itself could not solve the historical lack). It seems like this would actually be one of the few places where a free market should work extremely well: simply set the price of emitting a ton of CO2 at the ratcheted price…

As my ECON 101 teacher said many times, the way to handle negative externalities is to tax them. The free market cannot handle this. Look at it this way- say you can make a ton of money manufacturing widgets, but you also make a ton of CO2. There is no law against this discharge, so you do it anyway. Climate change might cause you many problems, but it's 50 years or more until you start to personally feel the heat. T…

>As my ECON 101 teacher said many times, the way to handle negative externalities is to tax them. The free market cannot handle this.

To take your second part first, taxing is part of the free market. The free market is a creation of and tool for use of government. Regulation to ensure cost internalization, information symmetry, contractual enforcement, and so forth are all basics for it to work at all. And a market has no goals of its own nor does it take into account human floor levels, it's up to society (and in turn its government) to choose goal states and then use all tools to find the most efficient routes towards reaching and then maintaining them.

To go back to the first, you've just restated the question: how do you "tax" the externality? How do you find the right rate? How do you adjust it and account for changing factors? It's government that sets the goal, but government tends to be bad at figuring out implementations and then reacting with high temporal or spatial granularity. In this case we have two linked problems, and we don't care about the "how" at all so long as its within framework requirements, we care about the end of "net zero carbon increase in the atmosphere" (or long term dealing with past emissions, though that'd require taxing other sources). This is exactly the sort of situation that's an ideal fit for using "market" (massively crowd sourced value apportionment utilizing capitalism) to optimize. On the one side is energy generation, which must directly pay per unit for the cost of dealing with their own emissions, and on the other side is finding the ways to most efficiently remove each unit and then collect the money. That would be expected to vary over time and by location, and to feedback into each other (and overall demand/efficiency) via the simple mechanism of price.

Re: What happened last time it was as warm as it’s going to get later this century?

#20

Global warming is real and humans contribute to it. Just stating that so I am not called a 'denier' as I have been before. That being said, the computer models predicting what the consequences of global warming will be, have greatly over estimated (at least the timeline of) real world impacts. Since I was a kid I've heard in the news that in the next 5 years or 10 years there will be all these catastrophes linked to…

The numerous one-in-a-thousand-year floods don't get you? The super-typhoons and unprecedented hurricanes? Drought and the human migration motivated by drought and flood? Species extinction? Wildfires? Loss of islands?

I think it was the photos of disinterred coffins floating through the flooded streets of New Orleans that first really hit me: it's here.

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