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Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

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11–20 of 228 posts

Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#11
post #3

When I read articles like this I wish I had a better grounding in economics, I guess specifically macroeconomics? Is there a well-known, digestible textbook?

Macroeconomics by Paul Krugman and Robin Wells is a good one.

Please don't read anything by Paul Krugman, unless you believe we are in the global recession he predicted after Trump's election.

Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#13
post #8

The combination of tax repatriation, tax cuts, and large-scale deficit spending (fiscal expansion) late in the economic cycle (recessions typically happen every 8 years or so, and the current expansion has been going on for ~10 yrs now) while the Federal reserve is raising interest rates (monetary 'contraction') is more or less unprecedented (we've never seen it happen in modern times in the US or any other large dev…

Just to clarify. There is no inherent business cycle. The Great Depression proved that the lows can continue on indefinitely without abatement. Laissez faire economics are dead.

The Great Depression itself had periodic upswings and downturns. 'This time is different' is also the mantra of every late-cycle investor buying at the peak.

I started my working life right into the jaws of the Great Recession and try not to forget that lesson.

Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#14
post #9
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just to clarify. There is no inherent business cycle. The Great Depression proved that the lows can continue on indefinitely without abatement. Laissez faire economics are dead.

The buisness cycle is closer to the truth than calling economic growth a random walk. You get feedback loops which prevent a steady state.

You’re probably basing that on data benefiting from a supervisory political institution. If that data exist.

Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#15
post #8

The combination of tax repatriation, tax cuts, and large-scale deficit spending (fiscal expansion) late in the economic cycle (recessions typically happen every 8 years or so, and the current expansion has been going on for ~10 yrs now) while the Federal reserve is raising interest rates (monetary 'contraction') is more or less unprecedented (we've never seen it happen in modern times in the US or any other large dev…

Just to clarify. There is no inherent business cycle. The Great Depression proved that the lows can continue on indefinitely without abatement. Laissez faire economics are dead.

> There is no inherent business cycle

Yes, there is. It's driven by individual credit cycles syncing up due to the economies of scale of financial distribution. Borrowing money fundamentally means more income today and less income (than otherwise) tomorrow. That drives cycles.

Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#16

This is just another reminder to always have emergency funds in your bank account, not tied into the markets. Allows you to weather the storm, until things correct themselves.

How does savings in a bank account help you weather inflation?

Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Macroeconomics by Paul Krugman and Robin Wells is a good one.

Please don't read anything by Paul Krugman, unless you believe we are in the global recession he predicted after Trump's election.

While this particular prediction didn't (yet) come true, Krugman is at least one of the few name-brand economists who will admit when he is wrong. He's also got a Nobel in the field, so to write off his textbook as unreadable for a failed prediction seems like a little much.

Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Macroeconomics by Paul Krugman and Robin Wells is a good one.

Please don't read anything by Paul Krugman, unless you believe we are in the global recession he predicted after Trump's election.

Economists have predicted 7 of the last 5 recessions.

Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#19
post #3

When I read articles like this I wish I had a better grounding in economics, I guess specifically macroeconomics? Is there a well-known, digestible textbook?

Macroeconomics by Abel, Bernanke and Croushore is a digestible text.
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