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Netflix is now worth more than Comcast

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Re: Netflix is now worth more than Comcast

#11

What's more shocking to me is that Netflix is worth more than Disney. Just look at the list of Disney subsidiaries[1], then look at how bad the average Netflix original movie is and then tell me if the market caps makes any sense at all. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_assets_owned_by_Disney

I love netflix but have never seen one of their original movies, happy to see them made but that isn't the point of Netflix

Re: Netflix is now worth more than Comcast

#12
post #3

Comcast has 15 billion in net income last quarter whereas Netflix had 185 million. And PE ratio of comccast is 19 whereas Netflix is 188. In the future where the cord cutting trend continues and Netflix gains tons of subscribers the valuation might make sense. But for now, I feel this looks like very overvalued.

Sounds like a good time to buy Comcast stock, and/or short Netflix stock. I'm no fan of Comcast (I've been trolling my city's building permit listings, drooling over the small fiber providers inching closer to my neighborhood), but they do still own a ton of physical infrastructure, as well as a massive IP library. Netflix has branding and momentum on their side, but they're also in a much more fragile position.

That might make sense from a mathematical perspective but something still needs to drive the price up or down, fundamentals alone don't always.

Re: Netflix is now worth more than Comcast

#13
post #3

Comcast has 15 billion in net income last quarter whereas Netflix had 185 million. And PE ratio of comccast is 19 whereas Netflix is 188. In the future where the cord cutting trend continues and Netflix gains tons of subscribers the valuation might make sense. But for now, I feel this looks like very overvalued.

The whole idea of "cord cutting" hurting cable is insane. If you don't subscribe to cable and you subscribe to internet based streaming services, you're still getting content delivered to your home via either a cable "cord" or the phone company. Netflix at most gets $12/month per subscriber. Comcast will get $80 - $110/month for internet service. Comcaast also has either no competitors in their market or at most one.

Comcast owns NBC and bunch of cable companies and has an ownership stake in Hulu. Comcast gets your money either way.

Netflix has to spend money on content and only has one way to recoup the cost -- subscriptions. Comcast also produces content via its TV and movie studios but makes money off of content via broadcast networks, cable companies, video on demand, and licensing to streaming companies and pay tv.

Re: Netflix is now worth more than Comcast

#14
post #6
post #2

This zeitgeist is exactly what cable companies still try to fight against. We no longer need content to be served whenever someone streams it; we need content available whenever we want to access it. For this, we no longer need cable companies; we need internet service providers.

Funny. I think of Comcast as an ISP. I know they provide cable TV, and do everything they can to upsell/bundle it with their Internet access, but to me they're just an ISP. I just checked, and it seems revenue-wise they're still more TV than Internet, but the trend is towards Internet revenue, and in subscriber-count, it flipped in 2015. I'm guessing, though, that the ISP revenue won't grow a ton, whereas the TV reve…

They are more "TV" because they own NBC. They also make money by licensing content to among other companies - Netflix.

Re: Netflix is now worth more than Comcast

#15
post #3

Comcast has 15 billion in net income last quarter whereas Netflix had 185 million. And PE ratio of comccast is 19 whereas Netflix is 188. In the future where the cord cutting trend continues and Netflix gains tons of subscribers the valuation might make sense. But for now, I feel this looks like very overvalued.

Valuations are based more on predictions of future performance, not based on current already known performance. The market just thinks Comcast is a falling star and Netflix is a rising one.

Re: Netflix is now worth more than Comcast

#16

What's more shocking to me is that Netflix is worth more than Disney. Just look at the list of Disney subsidiaries[1], then look at how bad the average Netflix original movie is and then tell me if the market caps makes any sense at all. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_assets_owned_by_Disney

I love netflix but have never seen one of their original movies, happy to see them made but that isn't the point of Netflix

I'm puzzled by your comment about 'the point of Netflix.' It seems myopic to think that they should limit themselves to simply serving up others peoples content. I would imaging the point of Netflix is to be the most success company they can be.

Re: Netflix is now worth more than Comcast

#17
post #3

Comcast has 15 billion in net income last quarter whereas Netflix had 185 million. And PE ratio of comccast is 19 whereas Netflix is 188. In the future where the cord cutting trend continues and Netflix gains tons of subscribers the valuation might make sense. But for now, I feel this looks like very overvalued.

Is there some kind of price to tangible assets ratio? Because I suspect Comcast has Netflix beat handily there as well.

Re: Netflix is now worth more than Comcast

#18
post #3

Comcast has 15 billion in net income last quarter whereas Netflix had 185 million. And PE ratio of comccast is 19 whereas Netflix is 188. In the future where the cord cutting trend continues and Netflix gains tons of subscribers the valuation might make sense. But for now, I feel this looks like very overvalued.

The whole idea of "cord cutting" hurting cable is insane. If you don't subscribe to cable and you subscribe to internet based streaming services, you're still getting content delivered to your home via either a cable "cord" or the phone company. Netflix at most gets $12/month per subscriber. Comcast will get $80 - $110/month for internet service. Comcaast also has either no competitors in their market or at most one.…

Not sure where you get the monthly internet pricing from but my 250MB Comcast is $59.99 a month and 150MB Frontier is $40 a month.

Re: Netflix is now worth more than Comcast

#19

What's more shocking to me is that Netflix is worth more than Disney. Just look at the list of Disney subsidiaries[1], then look at how bad the average Netflix original movie is and then tell me if the market caps makes any sense at all. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_assets_owned_by_Disney

I love netflix but have never seen one of their original movies, happy to see them made but that isn't the point of Netflix

I believe that creating original content that attracts subscribers (the HBO model) is what Netflix is trying to make one of the main points of Netflix.

Re: Netflix is now worth more than Comcast

#20

What's more shocking to me is that Netflix is worth more than Disney. Just look at the list of Disney subsidiaries[1], then look at how bad the average Netflix original movie is and then tell me if the market caps makes any sense at all. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_assets_owned_by_Disney

I love netflix but have never seen one of their original movies, happy to see them made but that isn't the point of Netflix

> but that isn't the point of Netflix

It'll increasingly be as the other content producers feel threatened by Netflix and balkanize their content into their own services. Netflix has to convert to more of an HBO model where they have their own quality originals that bring eyeballs, and they're already on their way towards that.

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