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CNN this morning: "Tesla will soon report whether it met its target to make 2,500 Model 3s a week. It is on pace to make about half that number, according to Bloomberg." [1] From the statement: "In the past seven days, Tesla produced 2,020 Model 3 vehicles." A pretty big improvement, still some hard work to do, but they really are ramping up. I'm relieved at the announcement they won't need another debt/equity raise…
That said, TSLA, just like SpaceX plays really close to the edge with equity and risk in pursuit of a vision. What most Tesla shorts fail to recognize is that Tesla has already gotten to the point that if something really really bad where to happen, any number of well capitalized tech firms would scoop them up in a instant (looking at Apple in particular). The cars are really a minimal amount of hardware, with software wrapped around them. They have loyalty like the iPhone had loyalty and Alexa has loyalty.
The big bottleneck to this point has been battery assembly lines at the Gigafactory. They just installed a new line for the battery packing line that they yanked back from Panasonic. Now they need to prove they can start scaling more linearly.
The press reaction to all of this is a good example of the media not knowing what they are talking about. The press has issued breathless reports about there being too much skilled labor and parts by hand, then too much robotic automation. They point at the low uptake of reservation holders (30%) without noting that the reservations are holding constant, and that this is mostly a effect of only the most premium of the premium going on sale right now.
Tesla's barb on the Model T is interesting as well. "This is the fastest growth of any automotive company in the modern era. If this rate of growth continues, it will exceed even that of Ford and the Model T. "
What Tesla is trying to do is hard. There is a reason no one has been successful in doing it in more then 50+ years. Watching the people who are opposed to what Tesla is doing is just as interesting.
But I am no longer that person. I read his biography (Elon Musk: Tesla, SpaceX, and the Quest for a Fantastic Future) and this is a guy who genuinely wants to change things on a macro scale: opening up space, changing transportation. He is also a genuine risk taker, who will bet his own money and risk everything for something he believes in. I now root for Musk and his companies to succeed. I wouldn't take short positions on Tesla now.
Plus the deletion of the SpaceX and Tesla facebook pages, when told over Twitter they existed was pretty funny.
"Tesla Goes Bankrupt Palo Alto, California, April 1, 2018 -- Despite intense efforts to raise money, including a last-ditch mass sale of Easter Eggs, we are sad to report that Tesla has gone completely and totally bankrupt. So bankrupt, you can't believe it." - Elon Musk https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/980566101124722688
For those who didn't already get it, it's an April Fool's joke.
CNN this morning: "Tesla will soon report whether it met its target to make 2,500 Model 3s a week. It is on pace to make about half that number, according to Bloomberg." [1] From the statement: "In the past seven days, Tesla produced 2,020 Model 3 vehicles." A pretty big improvement, still some hard work to do, but they really are ramping up. I'm relieved at the announcement they won't need another debt/equity raise…
Depends on what made these numbers. Late night burn or proper automation ?
But I hope they succeed in general and I guess we'll know one way or the other by next quarter.
2,020 is under Elon's 2,500 prediction, but well above the 1,000-1,500 expectations of those shorting the stock (unless the shorts' articles were deliberately misleading, of course). Also, according to the release, those are customer-delivered numbers. Overall, a good trajectory and a sign of long-term health.
The game around Tesla stock is pure and simple speculation - by all sides. There is no world that justifies the current value of Tesla's stock, and there is also clear evidence that there is significant illegal market manipulation by shorts.. This is becoming more of a problem. Remember the fairly benign AMD "security" issue where it was discovered that root users could update security code? The announcement of that exploit came with a "this should drive AMD stock to zero" comment.
Just a little bit over oversight please, SEC?
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Depends on what made these numbers. Late night burn or proper automation ?
Indeed. They say last week and next week will be ballpark 2K Model 3s, and that's good, but is that their new sustainable number or just an artificially inflated figure for this report? Their carefully chosen wording leans me more towards the latter. But I hope they succeed in general and I guess we'll know one way or the other by next quarter.
I assume this is their way of saying, we have a sustainable rate here.
That said, the VIN numbers are rolling off at a massive rate. It's pretty easy to see if Tesla does that again.
> The Model 3 output increased exponentially, representing a fourfold increase over last quarter. This is the fastest growth of any automotive company in the modern era. If this rate of growth continues, it will exceed even that of Ford and the Model T. Way to spin all the production issues and delay of the previous quarter into a positive. They're way behind the goals they set for themselves, but instead of measurin…
The other major automakers are running years behind where Tesla is at today. That's where the embarrassment should be today: those automakers are still gleefully selling tens of millions of fossil-fuel-only vehicles.
Producing 20,000 Model 3 vehicles per quarter this year will be an accomplishment (even in spite of Musk's absurd prior goal). It implies they can push well over 100,000 units in 2019. These days they're being given little credit for what they are accomplishing. When they hit that 20,000 quarterly marker, the Model 3 becomes one of the best selling mid-priced luxury vehicles on the planet in its first year.