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The Economist house-price indices

economist.com

11–20 of 46 posts

Re: The Economist house-price indices

#12
post #3

Chicago is so ridiculously cheap compared to the rest of the very small group of "large american cities with big functional public transit networks." Never thought I'd really consider moving back home, but that's definitely something I didn't appreciate growing up. Given the lack of geographic constraints, it's amazing how expensive the DC area is. In % terms since 2000 it looks like only SF has exceeded it out of th…

Same, I didn't appreciate Chicago when I lived there. The El is pretty great in retrospect. The idea of not having a car in Seattle seems ludicrous.

Re: The Economist house-price indices

#15
post #3

Chicago is so ridiculously cheap compared to the rest of the very small group of "large american cities with big functional public transit networks." Never thought I'd really consider moving back home, but that's definitely something I didn't appreciate growing up. Given the lack of geographic constraints, it's amazing how expensive the DC area is. In % terms since 2000 it looks like only SF has exceeded it out of th…

Part of what's keeping Chicago home prices low may be a relatively high property tax that's predicted to increase in the near future, in order to stabilize underfunded pensions.

There was an interesting discussion on HN about a year ago about the Greek debt crisis and how the Greek State had effectively increased property taxes to 6%+, to the point where prices cratered and the re-sale market in some areas froze up. I think the catalyst for the discussion was an article about heirs refusing to inherit certain properties because the hassle to sell, and upkeep costs in the meantime, just wasn't worth it. It made me appreciate that if things get bad enough, governments have a legal and fairly accessible mechanism for confiscating a large portion of the property wealth held by their citizens.

Re: The Economist house-price indices

#16
post #15
post #3

Chicago is so ridiculously cheap compared to the rest of the very small group of "large american cities with big functional public transit networks." Never thought I'd really consider moving back home, but that's definitely something I didn't appreciate growing up. Given the lack of geographic constraints, it's amazing how expensive the DC area is. In % terms since 2000 it looks like only SF has exceeded it out of th…

Part of what's keeping Chicago home prices low may be a relatively high property tax that's predicted to increase in the near future, in order to stabilize underfunded pensions. There was an interesting discussion on HN about a year ago about the Greek debt crisis and how the Greek State had effectively increased property taxes to 6%+, to the point where prices cratered and the re-sale market in some areas froze up.…

I do not expect the pension to last. It seems like a failed socioeconomic experiment. Corruption and mismanagement play a role for sure but the big killer is increasing life spans coupled with declining fertility. With 1.5-2 kids per couple and an extra 20 years of retirement the math does not work. The only thing that could save it is crazy economic growth but that is unlikely.

Re: The Economist house-price indices

#17

The cost of the actual home is only one third of the story. The other two thirds being interest rate and property tax. I'd love to see an analysis with those other variables.

I've forever wanted to see this, and I'm not sure if I just suck at searching, or if no one does this.

It doesn't seem like it should be /too/ hard. I mean, property taxes are going to be different in different regions of each country, but getting a rough average shouldn't be too hard. And it's not too hard to get interest rates for countries for the past 20-ish years.

Re: The Economist house-price indices

#18

The cost of the actual home is only one third of the story. The other two thirds being interest rate and property tax. I'd love to see an analysis with those other variables.

Good point. There's no sense in buying cheaper property if it costs more monthly to maintain.

Re: The Economist house-price indices

#19

The cost of the actual home is only one third of the story. The other two thirds being interest rate and property tax. I'd love to see an analysis with those other variables.

Not sure how it works in the US but in the UK you pay a stamp duty tax when your purchase a property, and then "council tax" on a monthly/annual basis which pays for municipal services like refuse, social care etc

Interestingly the amount of council tax you pay is tiered based on a valuation of the property in the 1990s.

Re: The Economist house-price indices

#20
post #16
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Part of what's keeping Chicago home prices low may be a relatively high property tax that's predicted to increase in the near future, in order to stabilize underfunded pensions. There was an interesting discussion on HN about a year ago about the Greek debt crisis and how the Greek State had effectively increased property taxes to 6%+, to the point where prices cratered and the re-sale market in some areas froze up.…

I do not expect the pension to last. It seems like a failed socioeconomic experiment. Corruption and mismanagement play a role for sure but the big killer is increasing life spans coupled with declining fertility. With 1.5-2 kids per couple and an extra 20 years of retirement the math does not work. The only thing that could save it is crazy economic growth but that is unlikely.

Exactly. It might not sound like a big deal if life expectancy increases from 70-75. That's only a 7% increase!

But, when the retirement age is 65, you're retired for TWICE as long. That's a huge difference. Either pension contributions need to increase AT LEAST two-fold, benefits cut in half, or retirement age is always set at life-expectancy - 5 years.

Not to mention, somehow now 62 is the new 65. Making the problem almost 3-times as bad.

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