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Phase 3: Profit

mattmaroon.com

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Re: Phase 3: Profit

#11

Post by SwellJoe »

Mistone wrote: post #7

so many fb haters - yet they keep growing users, keep launching features, you can say they have no tech (baseless), they can't monetize (eer ask pg about this one; build something people want - a business model will emerge) and all the rest - yet you can say nothing about their growth and engagement.

Matt's not saying they aren't getting a lot of traffic, or that a lot of people don't enjoy using Facebook (nobody in their right mind would claim those things). Matt's saying that it's a rare form of chutzpah that Zuckerberg possesses that allows him to make up stuff like "the social graph" as justification for his second-place social network being worth 30 times the first-place social network (he's also saying some other stuff, but I think that's the funniest/truest part). And, of course, it takes an astounding reality distortion field for him to be able to convince half the people in the valley that it's a done deal: Facebook is "the next Google".

Re: Phase 3: Profit

#12

Post by run4yourlives »

Mistone wrote: post #8
run4yourlives wrote: post #2

The biggest problem with facebook, imo. All the lovers will come and razz Matt and this comment, but none of them will be able to provide any evidence that facebook is doing anything but spending capital.

how about growing users?..hmm thats seems like a valuable way to spend your time if your a consumer web company.

When you have over "65 billion page views per month", you don't need to focus on more users.

You need to focus on getting paid. Fast.

EDIT: In other words:

if Money In - Money Out > 0: Success

if Money In - Money Out The number of users doesn't matter.

Re: Phase 3: Profit

#13

Post by dangoldin »

Xichekolas wrote: post #9
cglee wrote: post #6

One easy way for them to make money is to charge some nominal fee (say $15/yr) for premium services or ad-free experience. I don't use facebook myself, but most of my friends do, and most of them would gladly pay a small fee to just keep using facebook as is, nevermind premium features. Mining the social graph is the holy grail of social networks, but facebook, with its millions of addicted users, doesn't have to sol…

I'd pay $15/yr to automatically block all Facebook Apps. Sadly I don't think I'm alone. It was useful before, but it's gotten increasingly spammy.

Facebook will keep on getting more and more users but it just seems that if they want to get to the next level, they need to do something about this App thing. Once they figure it out I don't doubt they'll be able to offer some type of productivity software - they already have the social infrastructure as well as the users in place for that.

When they launched the API and the apps I, as many others, were excited about the entire idea of a facebook OS but it seems that notion is drifting farther and farther away.

Re: Phase 3: Profit

#14

Post by Mistone »

SwellJoe wrote: post #11
Mistone wrote: post #7

so many fb haters - yet they keep growing users, keep launching features, you can say they have no tech (baseless), they can't monetize (eer ask pg about this one; build something people want - a business model will emerge) and all the rest - yet you can say nothing about their growth and engagement.

Matt's not saying they aren't getting a lot of traffic, or that a lot of people don't enjoy using Facebook (nobody in their right mind would claim those things). Matt's saying that it's a rare form of chutzpah that Zuckerberg possesses that allows him to make up stuff like "the social graph" as justification for his second-place social network being worth 30 times the first-place social network (he's also saying some…

nice point - but myspace was a steal for fox and should be kicking themselves for selling so low. fb's valuation is mind boggling indeed and fb is not the next google - it does however have people excited about something besides the big G which is refreshing. chutzpa is making people believe, not telling the literal truth.

Re: Phase 3: Profit

#15

Post by alex_c »

run4yourlives wrote: post #2

The biggest problem with facebook, imo. All the lovers will come and razz Matt and this comment, but none of them will be able to provide any evidence that facebook is doing anything but spending capital.

My suspicion is that Facebook will have to change how online advertising works, or die.

Look at Compete data: average stay of 15 minutes * 350 million visits/month = 87.5 million hours / month in the US. That is coupled with decent demographic data and ability to target. How much would that much attention be worth in TV or newspaper advertising? A lot more than Facebook is currently getting, I suspect.

If it can convince major brands that Facebook eyeballs are worth the same as traditional advertising (in effect sell them CPM, not CPC - "Facebook is the new TV"), then Facebook will do quite well. That's a very tough sell for smaller players, but it might not be impossible for Facebook.

Re: Phase 3: Profit

#16

Post by rms »

Mistone wrote: post #10

quick name the only company in the valley that scares googles mngt team? quick name the only company in the valley thats harvesting googlers like its October in Napa valley?

Facebook!

Re: Phase 3: Profit

#17

Post by rrival »

cglee wrote: post #6

One easy way for them to make money is to charge some nominal fee (say $15/yr) for premium services or ad-free experience. I don't use facebook myself, but most of my friends do, and most of them would gladly pay a small fee to just keep using facebook as is, nevermind premium features. Mining the social graph is the holy grail of social networks, but facebook, with its millions of addicted users, doesn't have to sol…

But then they'd have some kind of rational yardstick for measuring valuation, and we have that -and- keep Zuckerberg a paper billionaire.

Re: Phase 3: Profit

#18

Post by okeumeni »

run4yourlives wrote: post #12
Mistone wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

how about growing users?..hmm thats seems like a valuable way to spend your time if your a consumer web company.

When you have over "65 billion page views per month", you don't need to focus on more users. You need to focus on getting paid. Fast. EDIT: In other words: if Money In - Money Out > 0: Success if Money In - Money Out The number of users doesn't matter.

Good point!

Re: Phase 3: Profit

#19

Post by Goladus »

cglee wrote: post #6

One easy way for them to make money is to charge some nominal fee (say $15/yr) for premium services or ad-free experience. I don't use facebook myself, but most of my friends do, and most of them would gladly pay a small fee to just keep using facebook as is, nevermind premium features. Mining the social graph is the holy grail of social networks, but facebook, with its millions of addicted users, doesn't have to sol…

Facebook is a bit sticky, but switching is not as hard as you might think. If I had to dump facebook, I could probably rebuild my network (as much as I really cared about) pretty quickly starting with just a couple of phone numbers and emails.

Re: Phase 3: Profit

#20

Post by wumi »

Somebody should start a poll:

Facebook + Email + IM + Phone vs. HN + Email + IM + Phone

Which would you rather have?

I suspect this would provide some valuable information as to the near future of the internet -- so many of us are on HN because it is specific to our current interests -- whether hobby or professional -- and our desire to know and bounce ideas off of similar minds.

Now for specific interests replace HN with (Popsugar, TMZ, Social Investing sites, etc.)

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