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Airbus ready to axe A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

reuters.com

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Re: Airbus ready to axe A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

#11

Post by nollbit »

brndnmtthws wrote: post #5

When it comes to airplanes, bigger isn't necessarily better. I guess the novelty value has worn off and giant jets like this have limited appeal. If there was a significant cost saving (there isn't) then of course it would make sense, but due to the limited number of airports that can service these planes and the high cost, I don't see much future in them. The efficiency just isn't there.

This isn't about efficiency or cost per passenger mile I think.

The A380 was a bet that the hub and spoke model (where passengers travel to an airline's hub in small planes and onwards from there in larger ones like the A380) would continue to rule the industry.

Instead, what happened was low cost carriers flying passenger directly to the destinations. It appears that passengers prefers that, which is why the B797 and A350 exists.

Re: Airbus ready to axe A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

#12

Post by brndnmtthws »

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #8
brndnmtthws wrote: post #5

When it comes to airplanes, bigger isn't necessarily better. I guess the novelty value has worn off and giant jets like this have limited appeal. If there was a significant cost saving (there isn't) then of course it would make sense, but due to the limited number of airports that can service these planes and the high cost, I don't see much future in them. The efficiency just isn't there.

They do pay off for large congested airports with limited landing slots (e.g. Beijing between Guangzhou, which is the only 380 I’ve flown on). But this isn’t as much of a problem as we thought it would be 20 years ago. Incidentally, this used to be why Japan flew so many 747s on domestic routes.

Right, but in order for that to work you need to be able to consistently fill the planes to capacity. That's not as easy as it sounds. There's a limited number of routes where it makes sense, so that means you don't really have an economy of scale opportunity.

Re: Airbus ready to axe A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

#13

Post by pmcollins »

code4tee wrote: post #6

Boeing played the market correctly here. When everyone was oohing over the A380 Boeing said super jumbos were on their way out and focused on the 787. If it hadn’t been for Emirates buying so many A380s to begin with it would have been a flop from the start (Emirates alone operates almost half of the A380s ever built). The future in long haul is mid-size highly efficient twin engine jets and here Airbus is scrambling…

Boeing's market analysis said that the market could barely support one super-jumbo, let alone two, so they opted for the much cheaper 747 upgrade and we got the 747-8 (which is also headed for extinction).

I heard an analyst say that you have to carry a lot of fuel to carry a lot of fuel. The optimal size from an efficiency perspective is the much smaller 737 -- the more you deviate from that, the larger the efficiency penalty.

Re: Airbus ready to axe A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

#14

Post by namdnay »

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #8
brndnmtthws wrote: post #5

When it comes to airplanes, bigger isn't necessarily better. I guess the novelty value has worn off and giant jets like this have limited appeal. If there was a significant cost saving (there isn't) then of course it would make sense, but due to the limited number of airports that can service these planes and the high cost, I don't see much future in them. The efficiency just isn't there.

They do pay off for large congested airports with limited landing slots (e.g. Beijing between Guangzhou, which is the only 380 I’ve flown on). But this isn’t as much of a problem as we thought it would be 20 years ago. Incidentally, this used to be why Japan flew so many 747s on domestic routes.

The problem is that the A380 creates so much wake turbulence that the next aircraft has to take off a bit later, negating some (but not all) of the advantage!

Re: Airbus ready to axe A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

#15

Post by seanmcdirmid »

brndnmtthws wrote: post #12
seanmcdirmid wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They do pay off for large congested airports with limited landing slots (e.g. Beijing between Guangzhou, which is the only 380 I’ve flown on). But this isn’t as much of a problem as we thought it would be 20 years ago. Incidentally, this used to be why Japan flew so many 747s on domestic routes.

Right, but in order for that to work you need to be able to consistently fill the planes to capacity. That's not as easy as it sounds. There's a limited number of routes where it makes sense, so that means you don't really have an economy of scale opportunity.

Yes, for sure. It makes sense on a few routes in china ATM but as airport infrastructure and high speed rail are built out, airbus is surely in trouble (same reason japan no longer uses any 747s domestically, and Boeing has basically relegated the 747 to a freighter, albeit a very successful one).

Re: Airbus ready to axe A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

#16

Post by namdnay »

code4tee wrote: post #6

Boeing played the market correctly here. When everyone was oohing over the A380 Boeing said super jumbos were on their way out and focused on the 787. If it hadn’t been for Emirates buying so many A380s to begin with it would have been a flop from the start (Emirates alone operates almost half of the A380s ever built). The future in long haul is mid-size highly efficient twin engine jets and here Airbus is scrambling…

I think that for airlines that want to differentiate on comfort/quality, the A380 is a must-have: You can pimp up the interior of a 787 as much as you want, it will never be as comfortable as what you can do with an A380 (see my other comment on the Emirates A380).

However this segment probably isn't big enough to justify such an expensive production line...

@frik - for some reason you are "dead" - no-one can see your comments since 5 days ago. Edit: now you're not! Congratulations I guess?

Re: Airbus ready to axe A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

#17

Post by vladd »

danmaz74 wrote: post #9

> Emirates, however, has been a strong believer in the A380 and is easily the largest customer with total orders of 142 aircraft, of which it has taken just over 100. ... > Emirates, for its part, wants a guarantee that Airbus will keep production going for a decade to protect its investment. Closing the A380 production line isn't going to happen for years anyway, considering the backlog they have, so, this leak look…

>> Closing A380 isn't going to happen for years considering the backlog they have

The article mentions: "96 unfilled orders -- But based on airlines’ intentions or finances, 47 of those are unlikely to be delivered, which halves the number of jets in play."

So the actual backlog stands at 96 - 47 = 49 planes.

This page - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Airbus_A380_orders_and... - shows that they've been delivering between 20 and 30 airplanes per year in the last years, which would allow a backlog depletion within 2 years. Even if they slow down, it still doesn't cover the decade gap requested by Emirates.

Re: Airbus ready to axe A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

#18

Post by Xixi »

brndnmtthws wrote: post #5

When it comes to airplanes, bigger isn't necessarily better. I guess the novelty value has worn off and giant jets like this have limited appeal. If there was a significant cost saving (there isn't) then of course it would make sense, but due to the limited number of airports that can service these planes and the high cost, I don't see much future in them. The efficiency just isn't there.

The success of the 747 was wrongly analyzed by Airbus: it was not successful because it was big, it was successful because it could fly further than anything else. It is however because it was big that it could fly far: if I remember correctly the fuel needed to fly grows with the surface of the plane (in 2 dimensions), while the fuel that can be hauled grows with its volume (in 3 dimensions).

The 777 had already made the 747 largely obsolete, and the kings of long haul flights going forward will be Boeing 787-9 and Airbus A350-900. With probably a mix of both in most long haul fleets.

It's surprising that Airbus did hit the jackpot with its A330, seemingly by accident, and yet seems to have been unable to foresee that it really was the future. Boeing built a better A330, called 787, and even though the A350 is a success, simply by virtue of being a larger plane that goes further it will probably not sell as much as the 787.

Re: Airbus ready to axe A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

#19

Post by code4tee »

namdnay wrote: post #16
code4tee wrote: post #6

Boeing played the market correctly here. When everyone was oohing over the A380 Boeing said super jumbos were on their way out and focused on the 787. If it hadn’t been for Emirates buying so many A380s to begin with it would have been a flop from the start (Emirates alone operates almost half of the A380s ever built). The future in long haul is mid-size highly efficient twin engine jets and here Airbus is scrambling…

I think that for airlines that want to differentiate on comfort/quality, the A380 is a must-have: You can pimp up the interior of a 787 as much as you want, it will never be as comfortable as what you can do with an A380 (see my other comment on the Emirates A380). However this segment probably isn't big enough to justify such an expensive production line... @frik - for some reason you are "dead" - no-one can see you…

I’ve flown just about every commercial model of airplane made in the last 30 years including Emirates A380 biz class. While that was undoubtedly an amazing trip, it had a lot more to do with the airline than the airplane. My enthusiasm for the trip also dropped off when I had to spend several hours waiting around in the middle of the night at their hub in Dubai.

Re: Airbus ready to axe A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

#20

Post by stergios »

Boeing most likely has already delivered the last passenger 747 ever to be built [1]. Cargo demand will keep the line alive, but at greatly reduced numbers, which in total have been 1536 units since it's commercial introduction in 1970 [2].

IMHO, the A380 was not created to meet market demand, but instead was conceived to meet the national interests of England and France's own military industrial complex, and in that regard it was a success.

1. http://money.cnn.com/2017/07/19/news/companies/the-last-747-...

2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_747

edit: format fix.

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