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An Interview with an Anonymous Data Scientist (2016)

logicmag.io

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Re: An Interview with an Anonymous Data Scientist (2016)

#11
post #4

Good interview, there are a bunch of bits I feel like I ought to be Quoting For Truth but then I'd end up with a pretty bloated reply. > I want to emphasize that historically, from the very first moment somebody thought of computers, there has been a notion of: “Oh, can the computer talk to me, can it learn to love?” And somebody, some yahoo, will be like, “Oh absolutely!” And then a bunch of people will put money in…

> On two occasions I have been asked, — "Pray, Mr. Babbage, if you put into the machine wrong figures, will the right answers come out?" In one case a member of the Upper, and in the other a member of the Lower, House put this question. I am not able rightly to apprehend the kind of confusion of ideas that could provoke such a question.

Luckily math has developed methods such as error-detecting/error-correcting codes (to insure against small typos/transmission errors), constructive results on continuity and robustness of functions (i.e. we can prove that if the error in the input data is less than some concretely computable delta, the solution will have an error less than epsilon; or we can ensure that the error in the solution is less than some computable epsilon if we can ensure that the error in the input data "is not too large" (i.e. bounded by some computable epsilon) etc.

In this sense I don't consider the question as that absurd.

Re: An Interview with an Anonymous Data Scientist (2016)

#12
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Speaking as a 'loon', his AI history is wrong in several places: 1. the Fifth Generation Project ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fifth_generation_computer ) was 19 8 0s officially ending in 1992, not 'late 1990s' (during the Dot-com bubble?!); 2. the Lisp bubble didn't pop because of a failed DoD piloting project, it popped because of the first AI Winter + commodity SPARC/x86 pressure + recession ( https://en.wikiped…

And there's more where he's plain wrong, like Aluminium. Despite all that a great antidote to the overhype that I see most days.

I did notice that one, but aluminum is kind of a complex topic (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aluminium#Synthesis_of_metal): the early cost was both the chemical processing and the low ore content, and one could charitably read him as referring to discovering bauxite and the electrolysis method, and then he's certainly right about the cost of electricity coming down drastically and making aluminum even cheaper. So not clearly wrong IMO, given that it's an extemporaneous interview.

Re: An Interview with an Anonymous Data Scientist (2016)

#13
Eh, pretty disappointing interview. It doesn’t tske a team to utilize gpu computing, it takes one person and I’ve done it. Also, you can’t complain about there being no strong-ai companies and then list accomplishments of strong-ai companies.

I personally don’t like the phrase data scientist but I get it and I get why it’s science as opposed to engineering. I personally like the split between machine learning, BI, and data engineering.

Re: An Interview with an Anonymous Data Scientist (2016)

#14
post #7

Any bets on when the current deep learning bubble is going to burst? It’s shocking to me how much technical people buy into this, how “this time it’s different” and AI isn’t “over-promising and substantially under-delivering” this time. Really odd to watch it come round again, when the reality is we’re more likely to see some near incremental progresses, partly fueled by more compute and algorithmic advances. Partly…

Depends who you ask. If you talk to people knowledgeable about deep learning and its applicability they’ll say we’re in the productivity regime. If you’re asking people who aren’t knowledgeable then they will display their hype.

Re: An Interview with an Anonymous Data Scientist (2016)

#15
I enjoyed his comments on Tensorflow.

> It’s really bad to use. There’s so much hype around it, but the number of people who are actually using it to build real things that make a difference is probably very low.

I wonder how many data scientists out there are actually developing Tensorflow models for a mission-critical project at work. I'm not. I have used Tensorflow successfully within my personal projects, but I've yet to need it for anything "real."

Re: An Interview with an Anonymous Data Scientist (2016)

#16
This articulated so much I have learned about the field in the past 5 years. As someone who inherited the title 'data scientist' because that's how my department designated us when it became fashionable, felt fraudulent due to the unlimited expectations of what data science is vs. what I understood it to be, and subsequently has interviewed probably nearly a hundred data science and machine learning 'experts', there seems to be little cohesion to what these terms describe, little understanding by laypersons about data science besides that it is some kind of magic that only the very gifted can command, and no greater distance between hubris and praxis that I have seen sustain itself for so long and so intensely.

The whole interview was an absolute joy to read.

Re: An Interview with an Anonymous Data Scientist (2016)

#17
post #7

Any bets on when the current deep learning bubble is going to burst? It’s shocking to me how much technical people buy into this, how “this time it’s different” and AI isn’t “over-promising and substantially under-delivering” this time. Really odd to watch it come round again, when the reality is we’re more likely to see some near incremental progresses, partly fueled by more compute and algorithmic advances. Partly…

I think we're just used to computers advancing noticeably on a regular basis: "Is this year's iPhone better enough to justify an upgrade?"

Also, we judge the difficulty of things by our own experience. It took us ~1 billion years to get to the point where we could communicate abstract ideas and play chess. These were once believed to be the challenging problems in AI.

It turned out that chess is easy we're just relatively bad at it.

Re: An Interview with an Anonymous Data Scientist (2016)

#18
It was 2016 and he said "I’ve noticed on AWS prices was that a few months ago, the spot prices on their GPU compute instances were $26 an hour for a four-GP machine, and $6.50 an hour for a one-GP machine. That’s the first time I’ve seen a computer that has human wages.."

Minimum wage (or thereabouts $7.20) now gets you a whopping p2.8xlarge (8 GPU, 32 vcpus, 488GB RAM), and the single GPU machine p2.xlarge is now $0.9 per hour.

This is a crazy data point. What will minimum wage buy you five years from now?

Re: An Interview with an Anonymous Data Scientist (2016)

#19
I work at a tech company and one of the things I have recently noticed is how ML and AI terms are being increasingly used by the business people. The guys who have no technical understanding, these are accountants or marketing guys saying we should ask tech team to design ML to solve these problems. Its as if ML is a thing to through at every kind of imaginable problem and it will be magically solved. I believe a lot of this has to do with PR around this by big tech companies. Take for example, the recent alpha zero vs stock fish PR, it has been spun around by Google in a way as if it was some magic. You hear a lot about how it took just 4 hours and I find it hard to explain to people that 4 hour time is meaningless. It is about how many games it could play in that time. Moreover the match happened between two systems on a different hardware and that is a big difference and also the fact that it used a arbitrary type of time control of, 1 min/move. Again this can make big difference but it is a big struggle to get past this PR fluff. To be clear, I am not denying the advances made by deep mind, I just want people to understand that it has come on back of probably the the world best team of scientists alongside state of the art Google designed hardware and incredible monetary resources of Google.

Re: An Interview with an Anonymous Data Scientist (2016)

#20
I've noticed an alarming uptick in articles around job titles and what people call themselves, so I feel compelled to say something. I couldn't be bothered what someone calls themselves as long as they can actually get shit done. The focus on titles is misplaced, especially for people who work in BigCo, as most titles in such places are handed down by HR anyways so I don't focus too much on them. But what does the person actually doing on a day to day basis? Is it stats? Is it exploratory analysis and modeling? Are they using ML, or working with data that doesn't fit on a single commodity machine? Writing people off based on what titles they might have had at some job (which they probably might not have any control over) is a good way to lose out on talent that you might have appreciated. But of course, this cuts both ways, would you want to work for someone who gets hung on things like that?

Anyway, overall great article, but this was the one thing that bothered me enough to comment.

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