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Bitcoin Bubble Makes Dot-Com Look Rational

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11–20 of 138 posts

Re: Bitcoin Bubble Makes Dot-Com Look Rational

#11
I think you are making a mistake by only looking at cryptos as "coins".

There are businesses being run on and around public blockchains and the cryptoeconomic incentives will ensure the perpetuation of the network. As long as there is value in maintaining public blockchains, their tokens (BTC, BCH, ETH, etc) will hold monetary value.

https://i.imgur.com/AfGNEA5.jpg

Re: Bitcoin Bubble Makes Dot-Com Look Rational

#12
> Take dot-com stocks, which were the biggest bubble of the past few decades, and likely the largest in stock market history. At the height of the dot-com stock bubble, the technology-heavy Nasdaq stock index had a price-to-earnings ratio of 175. In the past year, bitcoins have generated transaction fees of nearly $219 million. And at $9,600 a piece, the total value of all bitcoins -- their market cap -- now tops $155 billion. That gives bitcoins the equivalent of a trailing P/E ratio of 708.

What kind of logic is that? Holding bitcoin doesn't give you any earnings. In fact, you need to spend electricity and equipment if you want to collect those fees.

Apples and Oranges.

Re: Bitcoin Bubble Makes Dot-Com Look Rational

#13
post #8

The idea is great, but in reality these stupid crypto coins are practically useless and wasting HUGE amounts of resources. Bitcoin is said to be consuming as much power a some countries, and still rising fast, while the amount of transactions is comically low compared to the power consumption. Bitcoin in its current state can never be a thing to actually buy something with. I don't see any other long-term use for bit…

how do you know?

How do I know what? That it will crash and burn? Because it is a useless resource. It is only worth something because other people say it is worth something, and unlike paper money it is not backed by anything significant. It is a bubble of hot air, ready to pop at any time.

It might continue rising for years or decades. But it is not usable as a real currency, so it will always remain a useless waste of resources.

There might be a replacement cryptocoin that will actually be useful in the future, but it won't be bitcoin. Bitcoin will be the thing that started the "future", but it will not be the thing that remained the future.

Re: Bitcoin Bubble Makes Dot-Com Look Rational

#14
P/E is a nonsensical measure for currency and assets. No one holding BTC expects to earn transaction fees. The miners get those fees. If we're talking about market cap of the miners themselves then this would be useful. Otherwise, the value of BTC should go up the smaller the transaction fees become. Why? Because less value is lost in transmission.

Re: Bitcoin Bubble Makes Dot-Com Look Rational

#15

Bitcoin could hit $10.000 any moment now. Who is buying and why?

VC-like money? The risk/reward schedule on bitcoin is not that far out of ordinary when compared to market conditions on "comparable" investments. For some generous definition of comparable.

Re: Bitcoin Bubble Makes Dot-Com Look Rational

#17
Was the collapse of the German Deutsche Mark, the Zimbabwean Dollar, the Venezuelan Bollivar a bubble too? Good money drives bad money out, so I’d argue that no, Bitcoin’s price is not a bubble. Clearly there’s no price that bitcoin holders will sell at so they’re clearly exiting the USD ecosystem.

I think the logical fallacy that’s occuring right now with critics of bitcoin’s price rise is that all bubbles has dramatic price rises (Pets.com, endless bullshit dot com IPOs, housing bubble) but not all dramatic price rises are bubbles (currency collapses)

Because bitcoin is measurable scarcity one can provable show it’s a good store of wealth.

OTOH, the ICO binge is an apt analogy for the IPO craze of the 90s. Investors are buying up securities with no viable business model expecting returns which isn’t going to happen on software that anyone can copy and run themselves. It doesn’t take a $200 million raise for a few engineers to build an MVP. It does take $200 million to run a successful Ponzi scheme (ICOs are probably not scarce and are therefore improper stores of wealth)

Re: Bitcoin Bubble Makes Dot-Com Look Rational

#18
The idea that you can value bitcoin via P/E, utilizing mining fees as the "E" is incorrect. It's akin to valuing gold through P/E, by utilising the cost of extraction as the "E".

This is obviously wrong because holding gold doesn't entitle the bearer to a portion of those mining costs, same with Bitcoin.

The reality is that gold cannot be objectively valued because it doesn't have an objective value (beyond its industrial use, which accounts for less than 10% of its actual current price).

As a society, we collectively agree that gold is worth something because we agree that it is worth something.

With Bitcoin, we are doing the same. But if we had centuries to consolidate our appreciation of gold, we are compressing price discovery for Bitcoin in just a few years.

Interestingly, Bitcoin offers several improvements over gold (being digital, lightweight, cheap to move, proven limited supply). It also has drawbacks.

Lastly: the author's contention that you can take value away from Bitcoin by just copying its code is misguided. It would be akin to saying that you can replicate Facebook's valuation by copying its codebase. Facebook's value comes from its network. The same happens with Bitcoin, since its fundamental properties (censorship-resistance, security) are functions of network size and node-dispersion.

Re: Bitcoin Bubble Makes Dot-Com Look Rational

#19

Was the collapse of the German Deutsche Mark, the Zimbabwean Dollar, the Venezuelan Bollivar a bubble too? Good money drives bad money out, so I’d argue that no, Bitcoin’s price is not a bubble. Clearly there’s no price that bitcoin holders will sell at so they’re clearly exiting the USD ecosystem. I think the logical fallacy that’s occuring right now with critics of bitcoin’s price rise is that all bubbles has drama…

Bitcoin has scarcity, but so does Litecoin or Bitcoin Cash

What makes Bitcoin special?

Re: Bitcoin Bubble Makes Dot-Com Look Rational

#20
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

how do you know?

How do I know what? That it will crash and burn? Because it is a useless resource. It is only worth something because other people say it is worth something, and unlike paper money it is not backed by anything significant. It is a bubble of hot air, ready to pop at any time. It might continue rising for years or decades. But it is not usable as a real currency, so it will always remain a useless waste of resources. T…

:D yeah, paper money .... backed by what? debt, yes. Militaryindustrial complex, yes. QE, yes. bitcoin is backed by mathematical algorithm, that has a limit on the amount of coins mined.

Go read some more Wallstreet Journal

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