I regularly forget how Bayes works. Everytime that happens I browse up to that page: https://www.bayestheorem.net/ I love the way it’s explained there.
[deleted]
Think Bayes: Bayesian Statistics Made Simple (2012)
11–20 of 66 posts
Re: Think Bayes: Bayesian Statistics Made Simple (2012)
#12For those unclear on the concrete (rather than philosophical) difference between Bayesian and frequentist statistics in the first place, I hope it's not inappropriate for me to share this 5-minute example that I wrote a while back: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11096129
For me, this book's first chapters explained nicely about ML, MAP and Bayesian using real computer vision problems. The author included helpful visual aids (gaussian plots, contour plots, filters output, etc)
http://www.computervisionmodels.com
This is a rather unusual book where it gives primer on probabilistic method that is actually applicable in non computer vision problems. It is Bayesian heavy and rarely touches neural networks; the book is released in 2012, the year deep learning boom started.
Re: Think Bayes: Bayesian Statistics Made Simple (2012)
#13My youngest has Allen Downey as a professor this year. She says he is crazy. And she means this in the best way possible. His productivity is prolific having written Think Java in 13 days. He memorized pictures and bios of all 90 students in the first year class at Olin College of Engineering.
Edit typo
Re: Think Bayes: Bayesian Statistics Made Simple (2012)
#14I regularly forget how Bayes works. Everytime that happens I browse up to that page: https://www.bayestheorem.net/ I love the way it’s explained there.
How Bayes kinda works, or how I see it. Conditional probability (with some caveats that someone in the comments can fill in on): P(a,b) = P(b,a) P(a|b) * P(b) = P(b|a) * P(a) P(a|b) = P(b|a) * P(a) / P(b) a can be model and b can be data so it becomes P(model | data) = P(data | model) * P(model) / P(data) We have or can estimate the things on the right side. We want to ultimately get the thing on the left side.
[deleted]
Re: Think Bayes: Bayesian Statistics Made Simple (2012)
#15For those unclear on the concrete (rather than philosophical) difference between Bayesian and frequentist statistics in the first place, I hope it's not inappropriate for me to share this 5-minute example that I wrote a while back: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11096129
For me, this book's first chapters explained nicely about ML, MAP and Bayesian using real computer vision problems. The author included helpful visual aids (gaussian plots, contour plots, filters output, etc) http://www.computervisionmodels.com This is a rather unusual book where it gives primer on probabilistic method that is actually applicable in non computer vision problems. It is Bayesian heavy and rarely touche…
Yeah, there are lots of good books out there. My goal was to get the point across in a 5-minute read (give or take).
Re: Think Bayes: Bayesian Statistics Made Simple (2012)
#16My youngest has Allen Downey as a professor this year. She says he is crazy. And she means this in the best way possible. His productivity is prolific having written Think Java in 13 days. He memorized pictures and bios of all 90 students in the first year class at Olin College of Engineering. Edit typo
Allen's classes were always some of the most over-enrolled ever since I can remember at Olin =).
Re: Think Bayes: Bayesian Statistics Made Simple (2012)
#17COMPOSITE HACKS
• If Truly you Are In Need Of A PROFESSIONAL HACKER Who Will Get Your Job Done Efficiently With Swift Response, You Have Met the Right Person.
MOTIVE: • I don't care who you are, The reason why I am hired is to simply get the job done however, I engage in"silent" attacks so the target remains unaware of the hack.
MY HACKING CAPABILITIES: There are series of people who needs to Hack their target email I.D, social media websites,apps or smartphones, for many reasons such as husband cheating on wife, girlfriend cheating on boyfriend or vice versa. Or important information needed to be dumped/sniffed from the target email address, website, a particular location, or for whatsoever reason you want to hire a Hacker Or As a parent you might need to monitor what your children are doing on social media and on their personal computers so that they don’t get into trouble. Or if you want to hack a private domain email account(business email), or you want to eraze your name from court’s criminal records, perhaps you might want to Hack into the database of any government agency, All these are what I can get done within few hours.
Frankly speaking, I always give a 100% guarantee on any job I am been asked to do, because I have always been successful in Almost all my jobs for the past 10years and my clients can testify to that . To hack anything needs time though, but I can provide a swift response to your job depending on how fast and urgent you need. Time also depends on what exactly you want to hack and how serious you are. Enough time with social engineering is required for hacking. So if you want to bind me in a short time, then just don't contact me because I can't hack within one hour,sorry. Basically, time depends on your luck. If its good luck, then it is possible to hack within one hour but, if its in the other way round, it would take few hours. I have seen FAKE HACKERS claiming they can hack in 1hr , but there is no REAL HACKER who can say this (AVOID THEM).
If your target account is Facebook, MySpace, Twitter, sexual accounts or other social accounts, Bitcoin wallets, etc, or you want to hack into someones smartphone so you can monitor their calls, read their messages, chats, and social account activities without their notice, Or you wana track someone’s location, Or you want to retrieve lost files,messages, feel free to contact me, we would have a nice deal! I will explain to you how I am going to get the job done.
You can also contact me for other Cyber Attacks And Hijackings, i do almost All Any binary options scam victims that is eager to recover lost money can also reach out to me, I'm Always ready to Help.
compositehacks@gmail.com
Re: Think Bayes: Bayesian Statistics Made Simple (2012)
#18Let's take a recent election as an example:
A Bayesian pollster began with a certain set of prior probabilities. That the college educated were more likely to vote in previous elections, for example, informed the sample population, because it wouldn't make much sense to ask the opinions of those who would stay home.
Thus, based on priors that were updated with new empirical data, a new set of probabilities emerged, that gave a certain candidate a high probability of victory.
Members of the voting public, aware of this high probability, decided that this meant with certainty that this candidate would win and therefore decided to stay home on election day.
In reality the Bayesian models were incorrect as amongst other factors, a much higher number of non-college educated individuals decided to vote and to vote for the other candidate.
As it is with Bayesian intelligence, shared as much by pollsters as machine learning algorithms:
Real-time heads up display
Keeps the danger away
But only for the things that already ruined your day.Re: Think Bayes: Bayesian Statistics Made Simple (2012)
#19For me the best so far book on Bayesian probability was "Probability Theory: The Logic of Science: Principles and Elementary Applications" by E. T. Jaynes.
The book starts from the deduction of Bayesian theorem from the first principles of logic and shows its applications to a wide range of topics. There is thorough discussion of various "paradoxes" and the author sharply criticizes the frequentist statistics. In addition there is a lot of historical references.
Re: Think Bayes: Bayesian Statistics Made Simple (2012)
#20“I broke this rule because I developed some of the code while I was a Visiting Scientist at Google, so I followed the Google style guide, which deviates from PEP 8 in a few places. Once I got used to Google style, I found that I liked it. And at this point, it would be too much trouble to change.”
Why would you write a book that targets the Python community and ignore PEP8 styling, inconveniencing an entire community, simply because it would be too much trouble for you to change?
“Also on the topic of style, I write “Bayes’s theorem” with an s after the apostrophe, which is preferred in some style guides and deprecated in others.”
It is deprecated in all modern style guides and should not be used. You’ll get dinged in college English and writing classes for using this outdated and redundant style.
I’m sure this book is great, but, as a point of constructive criticism, I would suggest the author do a better job at adhering to the styles of code and English expected by his target audience, rather than what is comfortable for him.