This makes me nervous and I fear that Kim Jung Un will have to do something big in order to save face. I hope we make him feel that he has a non-violent way to posture for his people as that's really what this is all about: posturing.
China orders N.K. firms to close down within 120 days
11–20 of 127 posts
Re: China orders N.K. firms to close down within 120 days
#12Will it really be enforceable though? It seems relatively easy for firms in China to change names, create shells, etc If China can't effectively police their own fly-by-night domestic firms from doing by things like selling industrial salts as fake table salt, how likely is it they'll be able to shut down NK oriented firms, or even be aggressively inclined to investigate and enforce this order? That is, perhaps this…
I feel like China is really starting to feel the pain of being associated with NK. I can imagine that they will be pretty thorough on this.
China just wants peace in the area. It's not at all in their interest to see a conflict right next door to them.
At the same time, I think it's not far-fetched that China would flex its muscle against the US if we escalate this conflict.
Re: China orders N.K. firms to close down within 120 days
#13Will it really be enforceable though? It seems relatively easy for firms in China to change names, create shells, etc If China can't effectively police their own fly-by-night domestic firms from doing by things like selling industrial salts as fake table salt, how likely is it they'll be able to shut down NK oriented firms, or even be aggressively inclined to investigate and enforce this order? That is, perhaps this…
The enforcement of regulations in China is frighteningly efficient and effective, while the issue at hand is foremost in the minds of leaders. The government insists on retaining personal control over the country, and weakens the country's autonomous systems, which means it must spend some of a limited amount of attention to address any given issue. The moment the Eye of Sauron turns to look at a particular problem, everything immediately falls into order. The moment it turns away to something else, everyone gets up to their old shenanigans. It's the trade-off of retaining personal control.
In this case, these NK firms will certainly be a topic of focus, and likely remain so for quite a while.
Re: China orders N.K. firms to close down within 120 days
#14It seems like KJU needs an enemy to stay in power to justify his rule, so he can’t back down on his nuclear program. But now the options are narrowing even more for him, and if he abdicated it doesn’t have anywhere to go. So he may just force a war...
In any war he’d be destroyed.
NK has to balance on the knife edge between being threatening enough to get concessions but not so much other countries give up and ignore them (or level them).
KJU doesn’t seem to know how to walk that line, and didn’t have enough time to learn it from his father.
I’d say ‘we’re getting close to the end’ but no one who has ever made that prediction has been right. It’s too unique (especially with Trump now) to be able to get a good guess.
Re: China orders N.K. firms to close down within 120 days
#15Earlier quoted context omitted.
I feel like China is really starting to feel the pain of being associated with NK. I can imagine that they will be pretty thorough on this.
China just wants peace in the area. It's not at all in their interest to see a conflict right next door to them. At the same time, I think it's not far-fetched that China would flex its muscle against the US if we escalate this conflict.
> At the same time, I think it's not far-fetched that China would flex its muscle against the US if we escalate this conflict.
I don't think so. I think they would actually just let NK be nuked and maybe try to capture it afterwards.
Re: China orders N.K. firms to close down within 120 days
#16Earlier quoted context omitted.
I feel like China is really starting to feel the pain of being associated with NK. I can imagine that they will be pretty thorough on this.
China just wants peace in the area. It's not at all in their interest to see a conflict right next door to them. At the same time, I think it's not far-fetched that China would flex its muscle against the US if we escalate this conflict.
Not just a war, a massive humanitarian crisis. If the NK government were to disappear how many needy people would flood over their border and cause massive resource issues?
It’s a weird situation where basically everyone hates NK (I imagine China would be more happy if that was just more of their normal territory) but everyone is terrified of what happens when the NK State dissolves.
SK wants to reunite but that would have to be done slowly to avoid the same issues China is afraid of (ignoring any ‘diehards’ causing terrorism or just unrest).
Re: China orders N.K. firms to close down within 120 days
#17Earlier quoted context omitted.
I feel like China is really starting to feel the pain of being associated with NK. I can imagine that they will be pretty thorough on this.
China just wants peace in the area. It's not at all in their interest to see a conflict right next door to them. At the same time, I think it's not far-fetched that China would flex its muscle against the US if we escalate this conflict.
Conflict in North Korea would lead to a humanitarian crisis for China and South Korea to deal with. I dont think either would want to deal with that
Re: China orders N.K. firms to close down within 120 days
#18Question, will this have a noticeable impact on the N.K. economy or is it more of an inconvenience?
I think it will. The regime gets much of the hard currency it needs to run the 'gift economy' from foreign operations.
These companies also form an excellent mechanism to maintain control. Many of them are labor providers; young NK men are conscripted to do logging in Siberia, gold mining in China and other such work. Their wages are sent back to Room 39 and any accumulation of despondent young men is eliminated.
Re: China orders N.K. firms to close down within 120 days
#19Question, will this have a noticeable impact on the N.K. economy or is it more of an inconvenience?
I don't know about the economy at large, but this will certainly be more than an inconvenience to many of the Kim family's wealthy and influential friends.
This is borderline off-topic, maybe a bit naive even, but I can't help but ask as I'm genuinely curious and don't know.
What do the 'wealthy' look like in NK? Is there an upper class of non-relatives and, if so, via what means -- government ties (business or personal)? What do they do on a daily basis, for work, fun, etc? It just seems to isolated, and perhaps that's my internet adoration speaking -- but is there a class of wealth in NK, what does it look like, how does it come to be?
And I'm honestly curious: if there is a wealthy class, what do they do for fun/enjoyment/entertainment purposes -- and how will this impact that?
Re: China orders N.K. firms to close down within 120 days
#20Will it really be enforceable though? It seems relatively easy for firms in China to change names, create shells, etc If China can't effectively police their own fly-by-night domestic firms from doing by things like selling industrial salts as fake table salt, how likely is it they'll be able to shut down NK oriented firms, or even be aggressively inclined to investigate and enforce this order? That is, perhaps this…
The enforcement of regulations in China is frighteningly efficient and effective, while the issue at hand is foremost in the minds of leaders . The government insists on retaining personal control over the country, and weakens the country's autonomous systems, which means it must spend some of a limited amount of attention to address any given issue. The moment the Eye of Sauron turns to look at a particular problem,…
On getting back to their old shenanigans, this is such a deeply rooted concept in China that it inspired a phrase that has remained in common use for 700 years. "Heaven is high and the emperor is far away" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tian_gao,_Huangdi_yuan