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North Korea fires missile over Japan

theguardian.com

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Re: North Korea fires missile over Japan

#11

Post by wisdomdata »

ajross wrote: post #6
monksy wrote: post #2

This leads to the next thing. Violating Japan's airspace with a missile may be a provocation for war. If that's the case, you're going to hear from our (US) president that we're officially going to war or conflict with North Korea. Unfortunately, in this case, I believe that Bannon is right. (We're screwed in that situation)

We aren't going to war, at least not intentionally. The downsides of a conflict with a nuclear state, even one with questionable capabilities like the DPRK, vastly outweigh the upsides. And Kim knows this, which is why he feels free to continue to call our bluffs. Trump's inability to bluff (or communicate with precision in general) has really messed things up at this point. I mean, taking his words as spoken he has…

NK will not be going to war, unless by miscalculation. Kim knows that of all the scenarios in a war, none end with him munching on caviar in a palace. There are two major powers that would make certain of that. Why do you think he was so keen to assassinate his half brother?

Re: North Korea fires missile over Japan

#12

Post by ekianjo »

PhasmaFelis wrote: post #7
madads wrote: post #5

Is there any way an amateur can verify claims of a missile being fired? Does it appear on radar at all? Thinking one of the flight tracking sites. In today's world I'm skeptical to say the least.

Certainly NK has every reason to lie, but I can't imagine why Japan would. Open war with NK would be very dangerous for them.

Not saying they are lying but Abe has been continously playing with the fear of NK to push his military agenda (the change of constitution and surveillance laws).

Re: North Korea fires missile over Japan

#13

Post by maruhan2 »

wisdomdata wrote: post #11
ajross wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We aren't going to war, at least not intentionally. The downsides of a conflict with a nuclear state, even one with questionable capabilities like the DPRK, vastly outweigh the upsides. And Kim knows this, which is why he feels free to continue to call our bluffs. Trump's inability to bluff (or communicate with precision in general) has really messed things up at this point. I mean, taking his words as spoken he has…

NK will not be going to war, unless by miscalculation. Kim knows that of all the scenarios in a war, none end with him munching on caviar in a palace. There are two major powers that would make certain of that. Why do you think he was so keen to assassinate his half brother?

This is where I couldn't figure out his motive. He clearly wants to maintain his reign, but if so, why did he start provoking in the first place?

Re: North Korea fires missile over Japan

#14

Post by jonnathanson »

ajross wrote: post #6
monksy wrote: post #2

This leads to the next thing. Violating Japan's airspace with a missile may be a provocation for war. If that's the case, you're going to hear from our (US) president that we're officially going to war or conflict with North Korea. Unfortunately, in this case, I believe that Bannon is right. (We're screwed in that situation)

We aren't going to war, at least not intentionally. The downsides of a conflict with a nuclear state, even one with questionable capabilities like the DPRK, vastly outweigh the upsides. And Kim knows this, which is why he feels free to continue to call our bluffs. Trump's inability to bluff (or communicate with precision in general) has really messed things up at this point. I mean, taking his words as spoken he has…

Where do we go from here? To the very brink, at least if Trump is left to his own (mobile) devices. My guess is he will reroute a CBG or two towards the Korean peninsula and make a lot of bluster about whatever new line he is prepared to draw.

Meanwhile, everyone else works frantically on a backchannel plan that allows both Kim and Trump to save some face. I don't see how this happens unless brokered by China, who emerges the big winner on the world stage.

Re: North Korea fires missile over Japan

#15

Post by TazeTSchnitzel »

maruhan2 wrote: post #13
wisdomdata wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

NK will not be going to war, unless by miscalculation. Kim knows that of all the scenarios in a war, none end with him munching on caviar in a palace. There are two major powers that would make certain of that. Why do you think he was so keen to assassinate his half brother?

This is where I couldn't figure out his motive. He clearly wants to maintain his reign, but if so, why did he start provoking in the first place?

The threats are to extract concessions.

The nukes are to make them too dangerous to invade.

Re: North Korea fires missile over Japan

#16

Post by astrodust »

jonnathanson wrote: post #14
ajross wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We aren't going to war, at least not intentionally. The downsides of a conflict with a nuclear state, even one with questionable capabilities like the DPRK, vastly outweigh the upsides. And Kim knows this, which is why he feels free to continue to call our bluffs. Trump's inability to bluff (or communicate with precision in general) has really messed things up at this point. I mean, taking his words as spoken he has…

Where do we go from here? To the very brink, at least if Trump is left to his own (mobile) devices. My guess is he will reroute a CBG or two towards the Korean peninsula and make a lot of bluster about whatever new line he is prepared to draw. Meanwhile, everyone else works frantically on a backchannel plan that allows both Kim and Trump to save some face. I don't see how this happens unless brokered by China, who em…

Imagine you're North Korea. Like you give a fuck if the US starts flying things close to your borders. They know that if the US attacks it's game over for South Korea, so unless the US is willing to throw South Korea under the bus the US won't do a damned thing.

The US will also have to convince China it was attacked in order to get support. Otherwise China will sit out any conflict, as ugly as it might get.

North Korea is really smacking the bear around with a stick here seeing how far they can go before they get bit.

Re: North Korea fires missile over Japan

#17

Post by 0xffff2 »

madads wrote: post #5

Is there any way an amateur can verify claims of a missile being fired? Does it appear on radar at all? Thinking one of the flight tracking sites. In today's world I'm skeptical to say the least.

>In today's world I'm skeptical to say the least.

Why? NK has been launching missiles for quite some time now, and this fits reasonably well with their overall pattern of escalation. I don't really pay that much attention to NK, but this launch is utterly unsurprising to me based on my very limited and amateur interest in the subject.

Re: North Korea fires missile over Japan

#18

Post by jonnathanson »

maruhan2 wrote: post #13
wisdomdata wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

NK will not be going to war, unless by miscalculation. Kim knows that of all the scenarios in a war, none end with him munching on caviar in a palace. There are two major powers that would make certain of that. Why do you think he was so keen to assassinate his half brother?

This is where I couldn't figure out his motive. He clearly wants to maintain his reign, but if so, why did he start provoking in the first place?

Because Kim's reign is predicated on maintaining credibility with his generals. He does that by rattling his saber and extracting economic concessions from the global community in general (and the US in particular).

Why he needs to go precisely this far is a good question. Possibly because Trump has consistently misplayed his hand and made a series of stupid bluffs that were quick and easy to call. Kim is probably testing the edges of his geopolitical box, figuring that it's a bit roomier than he'd previously calculated.

Re: North Korea fires missile over Japan

#19

Post by helthanatos »

astrodust wrote: post #16
jonnathanson wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where do we go from here? To the very brink, at least if Trump is left to his own (mobile) devices. My guess is he will reroute a CBG or two towards the Korean peninsula and make a lot of bluster about whatever new line he is prepared to draw. Meanwhile, everyone else works frantically on a backchannel plan that allows both Kim and Trump to save some face. I don't see how this happens unless brokered by China, who em…

Imagine you're North Korea. Like you give a fuck if the US starts flying things close to your borders. They know that if the US attacks it's game over for South Korea, so unless the US is willing to throw South Korea under the bus the US won't do a damned thing. The US will also have to convince China it was attacked in order to get support. Otherwise China will sit out any conflict, as ugly as it might get. North Ko…

North Korea could be completely carpet bombed before they got a middle to South Korea. Why no one is willing to stop North Korea is bewildering.

Re: North Korea fires missile over Japan

#20

Post by krapp »

jonnathanson wrote: post #14
ajross wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We aren't going to war, at least not intentionally. The downsides of a conflict with a nuclear state, even one with questionable capabilities like the DPRK, vastly outweigh the upsides. And Kim knows this, which is why he feels free to continue to call our bluffs. Trump's inability to bluff (or communicate with precision in general) has really messed things up at this point. I mean, taking his words as spoken he has…

Where do we go from here? To the very brink, at least if Trump is left to his own (mobile) devices. My guess is he will reroute a CBG or two towards the Korean peninsula and make a lot of bluster about whatever new line he is prepared to draw. Meanwhile, everyone else works frantically on a backchannel plan that allows both Kim and Trump to save some face. I don't see how this happens unless brokered by China, who em…

We get the leaders of Japan, China and South Korea together on a conference call and all agree not to start World War 3 when China decides to push through some "regime change." Why would China do this? Because North Korea is useful to them as a buffer state and a proxy to aggravate the West, but only so long as they can be controlled. Once they pose a real threat to their neighbors, they also pose a real threat to China. And China would rather have the chance to prove its dominance than let US do so.

So, Kim Jong-Un accidentally trips down the stairs and lands head-first on a bullet, along with his entire regime, and we all look the other way, and the US sends everybody lots and lots and lots of money.

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