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Despite S.E.C. Warning, Wave of Initial Coin Offerings Grows

nytimes.com

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Re: Despite S.E.C. Warning, Wave of Initial Coin Offerings Grows

#11

Post by richardknop »

rm_-rf_slash wrote: post #5
vanattab wrote: post #3

I am thinking a short position in bitcoin is in my near future. I am not saying bitcoin is doomed to fail but I am pretty confident this shit coin crazy is going to hit the fan sooner or later and it's going to drag the "legitimate" crypto currencies down.

"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." YMMV.

I agree. I would also short crypto but it's too dangerous now as the tulip mania could still grow more before it pops. Once the bubble clearly pops then I'd start actively shorting as there will be months of bear market probably after the reversal.

Re: Despite S.E.C. Warning, Wave of Initial Coin Offerings Grows

#12

Post by jimmykennedy »

austenallred wrote: post #9
vanattab wrote: post #3

I am thinking a short position in bitcoin is in my near future. I am not saying bitcoin is doomed to fail but I am pretty confident this shit coin crazy is going to hit the fan sooner or later and it's going to drag the "legitimate" crypto currencies down.

Even if you had a high degree of confidence that would happen eventually (which I'm not convinced you do), such a play would be absurdly risky, especially given no idea as to the timing.

It's also weird to assume that it'll "drag the "legitimate" crypto currencies down". It's much more likely that the legit ones will be a "safety" asset and only gain in credibility with large investors.

Re: Despite S.E.C. Warning, Wave of Initial Coin Offerings Grows

#13

Post by problems »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #10
jraines wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can short btc on several platforms, including Bitfinex

> You can short btc on several platforms, including Bitfinex There is a horrible counterparty correlation in this trade. If Bitcoin goes up, you're out your short and lose lots of money. If Bitcoin crashes, the exchange runs into problems and you probably lose your original investment. Balanced against those is the limited profit potential from a marginal drop in the price of Bitcoin.

Why would the exchange run into problems in such a case? Some are certainly more reputable than others, but for the most part there's no reason to worry there.

Re: Despite S.E.C. Warning, Wave of Initial Coin Offerings Grows

#14

Post by gruez »

richardknop wrote: post #11
rm_-rf_slash wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." YMMV.

I agree. I would also short crypto but it's too dangerous now as the tulip mania could still grow more before it pops. Once the bubble clearly pops then I'd start actively shorting as there will be months of bear market probably after the reversal.

>Once tre bubble clearly pops then I'd start actively shorting as there will be months of bear market probably after the reversal.

I seriously doubt that logic would work, because it's very possible that by the time you think the bubble clearly "popped", it has already reached the bottom. Not to mention that half the market is planning the same thing.

Re: Despite S.E.C. Warning, Wave of Initial Coin Offerings Grows

#15

Post by walrus1066 »

vanattab wrote: post #3

I am thinking a short position in bitcoin is in my near future. I am not saying bitcoin is doomed to fail but I am pretty confident this shit coin crazy is going to hit the fan sooner or later and it's going to drag the "legitimate" crypto currencies down.

Beware that:

“The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” (John Maynard Keynes)

Especially relevant to short selling

Re: Despite S.E.C. Warning, Wave of Initial Coin Offerings Grows

#16

Post by CamelCaseName »

jimmykennedy wrote: post #12
austenallred wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even if you had a high degree of confidence that would happen eventually (which I'm not convinced you do), such a play would be absurdly risky, especially given no idea as to the timing.

It's also weird to assume that it'll "drag the "legitimate" crypto currencies down". It's much more likely that the legit ones will be a "safety" asset and only gain in credibility with large investors.

Historically that has not been the case, when BTC falls, everything else does as well.

Re: Despite S.E.C. Warning, Wave of Initial Coin Offerings Grows

#18

Post by AznHisoka »

vanattab wrote: post #3

I am thinking a short position in bitcoin is in my near future. I am not saying bitcoin is doomed to fail but I am pretty confident this shit coin crazy is going to hit the fan sooner or later and it's going to drag the "legitimate" crypto currencies down.

And I'm investing in Bitcoin. Just because it is at its peak doesn't mean it can't go even higher!

I might be crazy, but your perspective isn't any more rational than mine :)

Re: Despite S.E.C. Warning, Wave of Initial Coin Offerings Grows

#19

Post by onewaystreet »

vanattab wrote: post #3

I am thinking a short position in bitcoin is in my near future. I am not saying bitcoin is doomed to fail but I am pretty confident this shit coin crazy is going to hit the fan sooner or later and it's going to drag the "legitimate" crypto currencies down.

Just in the past three months bitcoin has gone from $1500 to $3000 to $2500 to $1800 to $2900 to $2500 to $3400. You'd make more with a lot less risk just waiting for a dip and buying.

Re: Despite S.E.C. Warning, Wave of Initial Coin Offerings Grows

#20

Post by JumpCrisscross »

problems wrote: post #13
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You can short btc on several platforms, including Bitfinex There is a horrible counterparty correlation in this trade. If Bitcoin goes up, you're out your short and lose lots of money. If Bitcoin crashes, the exchange runs into problems and you probably lose your original investment. Balanced against those is the limited profit potential from a marginal drop in the price of Bitcoin.

Why would the exchange run into problems in such a case? Some are certainly more reputable than others, but for the most part there's no reason to worry there.

> there's no reason to worry there

There are failure modes that have plagued exchanges for centuries. Namely, when things go down (a) lots of activity happens in a short period of time, often leading to administration and technical failures, and (b) lots of people lose money which presages them (i) refusing to pony up and (ii) suing.

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