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Branson admits Virgin space mission was going the wrong direction

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Re: Branson admits Virgin space mission was going the wrong direction

#11
post #7

Too early for space tourism.

There have already been tourist flights to space (eg ISS), plus Virgin already has deposits on suborbital flights. So I would argue the door is open and there's money to be made.

Perhaps the winged approach is not optimal for orbital missions, like to the Virgin hotel, but I can't see why they would turn down scores of paying suborbital trips, for which wings probably make a lot more sense. They might as well keep up the SS2 path to finance the higher goals.

Re: Branson admits Virgin space mission was going the wrong direction

#12
post #9

There's no indication that they've figured out that Virgin's real problem is their architecture. They're still trying to use wings to get to space. The Germans and NASA back in the 50s understood that "mass is mass", and wings compete with fuel for weight. They're dead mass you have to accelerate. The lift they provide isn't worth it. The Russians put Sputnik and Gegarin in orbit with a rocket. NASA went to the Moon…

> Branson's problem is that he founded a company started by Burt Rutan (a brilliant airplane designer), and never hired the right rocket designers, and he doesn't have the technical expertise himself to realize what he's doing wrong.

Rutan won the X-Prize, I don't believe you can call that wrong. This was always space tourism, nothing more.

Re: Branson admits Virgin space mission was going the wrong direction

#14
post #9

There's no indication that they've figured out that Virgin's real problem is their architecture. They're still trying to use wings to get to space. The Germans and NASA back in the 50s understood that "mass is mass", and wings compete with fuel for weight. They're dead mass you have to accelerate. The lift they provide isn't worth it. The Russians put Sputnik and Gegarin in orbit with a rocket. NASA went to the Moon…

Would you say that achieving orbit is a problem of achieving velocity more than lifting to a certain altitude, and that wings are a delicate tool for decelerating when coming back to earth?

Re: Branson admits Virgin space mission was going the wrong direction

#15
post #7

Too early for space tourism.

Musk announced couple of days ago a plan to send tourists on a sightseeing trip around Moon. And not as some hypothetical plan, but in a sense that the said tourists have bought the tickets.

Now, with their track record it looks like it's probably going to take 2x more time than the announced schedule says, but on the other hand, 2x is quite much sooner than 'never'.

Re: Branson admits Virgin space mission was going the wrong direction

#16
post #12
post #9

There's no indication that they've figured out that Virgin's real problem is their architecture. They're still trying to use wings to get to space. The Germans and NASA back in the 50s understood that "mass is mass", and wings compete with fuel for weight. They're dead mass you have to accelerate. The lift they provide isn't worth it. The Russians put Sputnik and Gegarin in orbit with a rocket. NASA went to the Moon…

> Branson's problem is that he founded a company started by Burt Rutan (a brilliant airplane designer), and never hired the right rocket designers, and he doesn't have the technical expertise himself to realize what he's doing wrong. Rutan won the X-Prize, I don't believe you can call that wrong. This was always space tourism, nothing more.

"Rutan won the X-Prize"

Yes, he did, but he did with an architecture incapable of doing anything more impressive than win the X-Prize.

I'll give you another example from the self-driving X-prize.

There were always two teams that were very close to winning. One team hand-coded every decision tree for the particular path the car might encounter, and the other team used machine learning and let the car figure it.

Now as it happened in the self-driving challenge, the machine-learning car won, but it was really, really close. For the limited purpose of the challenge, the hand-coded car was nearly good enough. Maybe if they'd hand-coded it just a little better, that car would have won.

But hand-coding doesn't scale from a closed challenge track to real-world self-driving cars. Only machine learning can do that. But because of the artificial constraints on the challenge, the non-scaling solution almost won.

Well for the Ansari X-Prize, the non-scaling solution DID win. That's the Rutan solution, which used wings, which work for 1 passenger but (as Branson has spent 20 years and a billion dollars proving) doesn't even scale to 10 passenger joy-rides, let alone orbit.

Re: Branson admits Virgin space mission was going the wrong direction

#17
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I like "Kepler Syndrome". The runaway proliferation of humans on nearby habitable planets.

So, Earth?

Well, that certainly is the majority of cases we're aware of.

Re: Branson admits Virgin space mission was going the wrong direction

#18
post #12
post #9

There's no indication that they've figured out that Virgin's real problem is their architecture. They're still trying to use wings to get to space. The Germans and NASA back in the 50s understood that "mass is mass", and wings compete with fuel for weight. They're dead mass you have to accelerate. The lift they provide isn't worth it. The Russians put Sputnik and Gegarin in orbit with a rocket. NASA went to the Moon…

> Branson's problem is that he founded a company started by Burt Rutan (a brilliant airplane designer), and never hired the right rocket designers, and he doesn't have the technical expertise himself to realize what he's doing wrong. Rutan won the X-Prize, I don't believe you can call that wrong. This was always space tourism, nothing more.

And suborbital space tourism at that. I think the article largely got the situation correct. It would also be interesting to see what capital both teams were working with... for SpaceX at least up to the first contracted launch.

Re: Branson admits Virgin space mission was going the wrong direction

#19
post #14
post #9

There's no indication that they've figured out that Virgin's real problem is their architecture. They're still trying to use wings to get to space. The Germans and NASA back in the 50s understood that "mass is mass", and wings compete with fuel for weight. They're dead mass you have to accelerate. The lift they provide isn't worth it. The Russians put Sputnik and Gegarin in orbit with a rocket. NASA went to the Moon…

Would you say that achieving orbit is a problem of achieving velocity more than lifting to a certain altitude, and that wings are a delicate tool for decelerating when coming back to earth?

Yes, absolutely. That's why the Apollo capsules and the Dragon spacecraft don't have them. The loads and heat involved are enormous. Even the Space Shuttle had pretty stubby wings, and the special tiles those wings needed to protect themselves were a constant source of high-cost maintenance (and ended up destroying one of the Shuttles and killing all its crew when they failed).

The wings on SpaceShipOne were pretty light and flimsy because they didn't need to be any stronger considering how slow SpaceShipOne's top speed was. It topped out at Mach 3, and you need to reach Mach 25 to achieve orbit. Wings strong enough to handle Mach 25 would be too heavy to ever reach Mach 25; Catch 22!

Re: Branson admits Virgin space mission was going the wrong direction

#20
post #9

There's no indication that they've figured out that Virgin's real problem is their architecture. They're still trying to use wings to get to space. The Germans and NASA back in the 50s understood that "mass is mass", and wings compete with fuel for weight. They're dead mass you have to accelerate. The lift they provide isn't worth it. The Russians put Sputnik and Gegarin in orbit with a rocket. NASA went to the Moon…

I was about to comment on what skunk works did with the U2 and the SR71, but then i saw that virgin wanted to go at 4x the service ceiling of these two planes. These two planes already had several very hard problems to solve (as related in https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/101438.Skunk_Works ), i can't begin to imagine the bigger problems to get higher.
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