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Nate Silver’s Lessons for Big Data from the Unpredicted Trump Victory

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Re: Nate Silver’s Lessons for Big Data from the Unpredicted Trump Victory

#11
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, they weight the polls, and in doing so got a very accurate results for the popular vote. Individual state polls had more variance than the national polls, but those were wrong in both directions, both over and understating Trump's support, mostly depending on the number of less educated white people in the state, who were apparently hard to poll, or to estimate their likelihood to actually vote. Both you and the…

"accurate results for the popular vote" is irrelevant for good reasons.

I think you're in the wrong thread, this one is about who "did a significantly better job than Nate Silver and 538 in estimating the level of Donald Trump support", not who would win the electoral college.

Re: Nate Silver’s Lessons for Big Data from the Unpredicted Trump Victory

#12
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"accurate results for the popular vote" is irrelevant for good reasons.

I think you're in the wrong thread, this one is about who "did a significantly better job than Nate Silver and 538 in estimating the level of Donald Trump support", not who would win the electoral college.

Funny, because that's the only level of support that matters. 538 got it wrong where it counts.
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