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New research suggests that social mobility in America may be more limited

washingtonpost.com

11–20 of 101 posts

Re: New research suggests that social mobility in America may be more limited

#11
> Only about 20 percent of people in the middle fifth would rise into the top fifth over the course of their lives.

In an equal system, the middle fifth would be expected to migrate into any of the other four fifths equally. Which means exactly 20 percent of them would head into the top as often as 20 percent would head into the bottom.

This is almost identical to the notorious Manager's Complaint: that 40% of sick days are Mondays and Fridays, insinuating employees aren't really sick because "so many" of them extend the weekend. But with a perfect random distribution of sickness (which is an acceptable assumption), precisely 20% would be on Monday and another 20% would be on Friday.

Re: New research suggests that social mobility in America may be more limited

#12

This is inequality over generations. If you seek to remove this, you remove one of the main reasons to strive for success, the means to pass down success to your children. I don't understand what this study is advocating. Government run orphanages that raise all children so that nobody gets an advantage?

So, success == wealth? That's quite a myopic view, IMO.

Re: New research suggests that social mobility in America may be more limited

#13

Is this headline not the very definition of scare-mongering? I'm all for a rational discussion of inequality; but my experience with similarly-titled articles suggests I will find just the opposite therein.

"...conventional measures of immobility, which just look at parents and children, have underestimated mobility by 20 percent compared to looking at three generations or more"

20 percent of anything is a pretty big difference. If the study has merit then the news could be called "striking".

Re: New research suggests that social mobility in America may be more limited

#14
The irony of WashPo publishing this article when Bezos has been under fire for near-servitude conditions in AMZN facilities for years, is palpable.

It's common sense that certain people are predisposed to learning certain fields quickly, especially given a family tradition.

I mean, consider a family where the husband is a carpenter. Then, one day his son decides that he's going to be a carpenter, but his dad has retired so he find another carpenter to apprentice under. That very same day, the carpenter actually hires another apprentice from a family of bankers. Which apprentice would be MOST LIKELY to become the superior apprentice, learn quicker than the other one, complete more satisfactory work, etc?

Multiply that by a hundred years or so, thousands of industries, millions of families, and there it is. Maybe the banker-family-apprentice has a knack for it, and becomes a carpenter one day. If he sticks with it long enough, surely he'll figure the work out. That's what mobility is all about anyways, being able to adapt to new circumstances.

I don't really buy in to this idea that there's shame in coming from a family that has done well. Now, this is from someone (me) who comes from a "family" that has done very poorly, and I've done sorta kinda good. The banker-apprentice has as much chance and opportunity to become a carpenter as the other one, since they were both chosen in the first place.

Knowledge isn't some heirarchical weapon that only the privileged elite can obtain.

"– such as financial resources, personal connections, or knowledge about how Wall Street works from her grandfather – that make it easier for her to become a banker than it is for the average kid."

What about the library? The NYPL SIBL has an entire section of FREE textbooks. You want to learn about Wall St? Free. You want to take the series 7? Free. You want to take the series 66? Free.

The phrasing of "surrendering a larger income to write poetry" or whatever it was, is some sort of prose gymnastics that I think is trying to imply that people are "destined" to become poets, and that there's some boogieman to point the finger at and scream about inequality. If you wanna get rich, maybe you should think twice about writing poems. If you want to create art and have some sort of impact on the social sphere, maybe you should think twice about sacrificing your life for FINRA's sick amusement, - I mean premiere regulatory excellence.

Anyways, this was an OK article. I chuckle whenever I see WashPo trying this pandering to try and convince ambitionless people it's the rest of the world's fault, somehow.

Re: New research suggests that social mobility in America may be more limited

#15
post #6
post #2

Welcome to planet Earth and the immutable human condition that's persisted in every society since the dawn of civilization. Their findings could have big implications for how the government addresses poverty. This is only of interest to anyone because it's used as ammunition for various political agendas.

I find this perspective frighteningly cynical and self-perpetuating. Government policy is one of the few mechanisms that has the possibility to address (if not fix) systemic inequality. And I think there's broad agreement across the political spectrum that inequality is a problem; rather, there are disagreements about how to best address it (social welfare and regulation vs. efficient markets). This isn't ammunition…

>And I think there's broad agreement across the political spectrum that inequality is a problem

No, I don't think there is.

Re: New research suggests that social mobility in America may be more limited

#16
This phenomena (that children are not statistically independent of their grandparents even when controlling for parents) has already been found to be robustly true in Europe and some eastern countries. Gregory Clark wrote a book on it that was widely discussed.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Son_Also_Rises_(book)

The point is that families transmit something across multiple (> 5 generations) that's responsible for strong persistent effects on economic success, and it's almost certainly not money (which can be measured and decays faster).

How can the OP author honestly suggest conclusions about what this means for America without contrasting with Europe, and the known hypotheses? Indeed, Clark argues that multi-generational economic mobility is remarkably constant across vastly different political and economic systems.

Re: New research suggests that social mobility in America may be more limited

#18

This is inequality over generations. If you seek to remove this, you remove one of the main reasons to strive for success, the means to pass down success to your children. I don't understand what this study is advocating. Government run orphanages that raise all children so that nobody gets an advantage?

So, success == wealth? That's quite a myopic view, IMO.

In a rich country, that's a very easy thing to say.

In most of the world and most of human history, success definitely equates to wealth, because the poor are permanently one bad harvest away from starvation. Wealth is the only road towards securing safety for you and your progeny.

Even today in the US, wealth might not imply success, but when unexpected bad things happen, money is the best safety net.

Re: New research suggests that social mobility in America may be more limited

#19
post #10

This is inequality over generations. If you seek to remove this, you remove one of the main reasons to strive for success, the means to pass down success to your children. I don't understand what this study is advocating. Government run orphanages that raise all children so that nobody gets an advantage?

A study doesn't necessarily have to advocate a solution - it can just bring attention to a problem.

Is it a problem?

Re: New research suggests that social mobility in America may be more limited

#20
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I find this perspective frighteningly cynical and self-perpetuating. Government policy is one of the few mechanisms that has the possibility to address (if not fix) systemic inequality. And I think there's broad agreement across the political spectrum that inequality is a problem; rather, there are disagreements about how to best address it (social welfare and regulation vs. efficient markets). This isn't ammunition…

>And I think there's broad agreement across the political spectrum that inequality is a problem No, I don't think there is.

Admittedly this might be one of the white lies I tell myself in order to stomach American political discourse. Good catch.
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