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2015 Set a Frenzy of Climate Records

scientificamerican.com

11–20 of 44 posts

Re: 2015 Set a Frenzy of Climate Records

#11
post #4

The scary thing about this (well, one scary thing) is that we, as a worldwide community, needed to be making hard decisions about the climate two or three decades ago, to stave off the worst of the impact of climate change. We're several years too late to stop it, and we still have half of our government (in the US) utterly denying the problem even exists. The decisions that need to be made now to stave off complete…

I keep thinking that capitalism, the pursuit of money above all else, can't be the correct way forward. Not with weak governments that refuse to correctly TAX pollution and non-recyclable items.

[edit] Down votes, OK. But why do you disagree? I can't think of a solution other than having Guido van Rossum as our benevolent dictator for life for the entire globe.

Re: 2015 Set a Frenzy of Climate Records

#12
post #3

Global warming is the greatest existential threat to civilization. And when today's Republican nominee says that global warming is a "hoax", it makes me almost certain that that's what's going to end up doing us in.

Could you lay out the play-by-play on how global warming is a threat to civilization? It seems to me, at worst, a slow-motion problem that will take almost a century to unfold and perhaps force large chunks of people to relocate to other places. I would appreciate it very much if you wouldn't read any kind of tone into my question. Straight up honest question.

Yes, It would take a very long time for global warming to cause the sea levels to rise such that cities are underwater.

But the primary way that global warming manifests itself is by causing severe weather events to be more frequent and more severe. (This happens mainly because warmer air holds more water vapor.) So the next Katrina will happen sooner, and it will be worse - because of global warming.

Another problem is that warming will cause lots of problems for agriculture. Those of us growing corn in the Midwest will be okay - but places with marginally fertile land will have famines.

Another problem is that insect-borne illnesses (which already kill millions) are helped in a huge way by warming, even just a few degrees' worth.

These are all bad. But the civilization-threatening part is what happens politically with the people displaced by floods, famine, and plagues of malaria/etc. This kind of stuff causes refugee migrations, political upheaval, revolutions, dictators, etc. The U.S. government is legitimately worried about this stuff [1].

[1] https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/docs/National...

Re: 2015 Set a Frenzy of Climate Records

#13
post #3

Global warming is the greatest existential threat to civilization. And when today's Republican nominee says that global warming is a "hoax", it makes me almost certain that that's what's going to end up doing us in.

Could you lay out the play-by-play on how global warming is a threat to civilization? It seems to me, at worst, a slow-motion problem that will take almost a century to unfold and perhaps force large chunks of people to relocate to other places. I would appreciate it very much if you wouldn't read any kind of tone into my question. Straight up honest question.

As climate change leads to more frequent and intense natural hazards, it is expected that climate displacement will only increase in Bangladesh. The best estimates suggest that up to 18 million people may be displaced by sea level rise alone.

I don't think people can comprehend re-housing 18 million souls.

Re: 2015 Set a Frenzy of Climate Records

#14
post #4

The scary thing about this (well, one scary thing) is that we, as a worldwide community, needed to be making hard decisions about the climate two or three decades ago, to stave off the worst of the impact of climate change. We're several years too late to stop it, and we still have half of our government (in the US) utterly denying the problem even exists. The decisions that need to be made now to stave off complete…

There's definitely reason to be optimistic. Emissions have started decreasing majorly in Europe [1], slightly in the USA [2], and are even leveling off in China [3]. Those three entities account for half the world's emissions.

Solar power has become cheap enough now that it's reasonable for developing countries (especially India) to rely on it heavily as they become fully electrified.

[1] http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/...

[2] https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/docs/National...

[3] https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/mar/07/chinas-c...

Re: 2015 Set a Frenzy of Climate Records

#15
post #8
post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Could you lay out the play-by-play on how global warming is a threat to civilization? It seems to me, at worst, a slow-motion problem that will take almost a century to unfold and perhaps force large chunks of people to relocate to other places. I would appreciate it very much if you wouldn't read any kind of tone into my question. Straight up honest question.

Already climate change is causing disease and death on an alarming (and growing) scale. Rich people, as always, have a buffer. We in the developed world will be the last to be hit by it and the least impacted. But, Africans are already feeling it. The Zika virus, which was identified in the 40s, was never been considered a serious health crisis, until climate change enabled it to spread farther and faster. Anything t…

Like the guy you replied to, I don't want any tone inferred into my question.

Those points you made, while worrisome, are not "civilization-ending" or catastrophic. Is there worse, or is that what you expect to continue?

Re: 2015 Set a Frenzy of Climate Records

#16

Global warming is the greatest existential threat to civilization. And when today's Republican nominee says that global warming is a "hoax", it makes me almost certain that that's what's going to end up doing us in.

I dont doubt that it is a threat, but disagree that its the greatest threat. I think it will have costs and that the 1st world will be able to (reluctantly) afford these costs. Its the people who cannot afford the costs that will suffer, due to reasons listed below, such as disease, food and water supply, etc.

I'd list accidental nuclear war as the greatest threat to civilization, fwiw.

Re: 2015 Set a Frenzy of Climate Records

#17
post #4

The scary thing about this (well, one scary thing) is that we, as a worldwide community, needed to be making hard decisions about the climate two or three decades ago, to stave off the worst of the impact of climate change. We're several years too late to stop it, and we still have half of our government (in the US) utterly denying the problem even exists. The decisions that need to be made now to stave off complete…

I keep thinking that capitalism, the pursuit of money above all else, can't be the correct way forward. Not with weak governments that refuse to correctly TAX pollution and non-recyclable items. [edit] Down votes, OK. But why do you disagree? I can't think of a solution other than having Guido van Rossum as our benevolent dictator for life for the entire globe.

Capitalistic democracies are the only thing likely to solve the problem. The dictatorships are among the worlds worst offenders in terms of pollution and overall environmental protection.

Re: 2015 Set a Frenzy of Climate Records

#18
post #4

The scary thing about this (well, one scary thing) is that we, as a worldwide community, needed to be making hard decisions about the climate two or three decades ago, to stave off the worst of the impact of climate change. We're several years too late to stop it, and we still have half of our government (in the US) utterly denying the problem even exists. The decisions that need to be made now to stave off complete…

There's definitely reason to be optimistic. Emissions have started decreasing majorly in Europe [1], slightly in the USA [2], and are even leveling off in China [3]. Those three entities account for half the world's emissions. Solar power has become cheap enough now that it's reasonable for developing countries (especially India) to rely on it heavily as they become fully electrified. [1] http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat…

The problem is the real, unbiased, can't be faked data shows that the CO2 level is rising the most it has in recorded history. It has jumped 4 ppm in the last year alone [1].

1. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/

Re: 2015 Set a Frenzy of Climate Records

#19
post #9
post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Could you lay out the play-by-play on how global warming is a threat to civilization? It seems to me, at worst, a slow-motion problem that will take almost a century to unfold and perhaps force large chunks of people to relocate to other places. I would appreciate it very much if you wouldn't read any kind of tone into my question. Straight up honest question.

You seem to assume that the temperature will slowly increase, giving us time to adapt, without descending into another global war due to all the shufling of agricultural areas and mass migrations. But there's a scarier scenario, where temperatures change much more rapidly due to a positive feedback loop: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Runaway_climate_change

The even more scary thing is our models are so bad that we have no idea of how likely a positive feedback loop is. We are basically driving down the freeway at 100 miles per hour with our eyes shut with the hope the road stays straight.

Re: 2015 Set a Frenzy of Climate Records

#20
post #15
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Already climate change is causing disease and death on an alarming (and growing) scale. Rich people, as always, have a buffer. We in the developed world will be the last to be hit by it and the least impacted. But, Africans are already feeling it. The Zika virus, which was identified in the 40s, was never been considered a serious health crisis, until climate change enabled it to spread farther and faster. Anything t…

Like the guy you replied to, I don't want any tone inferred into my question. Those points you made, while worrisome, are not "civilization-ending" or catastrophic. Is there worse, or is that what you expect to continue?

That's what I expect this decade. My concern is that it is all happening faster than even many of the most pessimistic scientists in the field expected, and it seems to be accelerating.

What I see when I try to extrapolate from what is happening today: Less food and clean water for more people, sometimes dramatically so in places that are already stressed for food and clean water (again, this will strike the poor far sooner than it will hit the developed world...but, that doesn't make it less horrifying, to me, and it is merely a leading indicator of what we will all experience). More forced migration, more refugee crises, more war over resources (including resources we don't yet generally currently consider worth going to war over, like water and arable land), more disease epidemics (and with no effective antibiotics to treat them), more mosquitoes, etc.

All of these things are already happening. We can see and measure them. And, they are trending in the wrong direction, and accelerating.

I just don't see how to interpret what we see happening as anything other than a slow moving disaster. There's only so much "relocation" can solve, when speaking of a world with billions of people. If you consider literally millions (or even billions) of people dying off to be a non-catastrophic event, I guess it's not catastrophic. But, it looks like a catastrophe, to me. And, when that many people are put at risk of starvation and disease, the likelihood of war, even world war, seems likely to increase remarkably.

Edit: A useful current article on the subject, with references: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/aug/03/climat...

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