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Norway reportedly agrees on banning new sales of gas-powered cars by 2025

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Re: Norway reportedly agrees on banning new sales of gas-powered cars by 2025

#11
post #3

Off topic: Anyone watch Okkupert (occupied in English)? The French-Norwegian made drama about how a modern European country would act if war were to happen there today (like it kind of has in Ukraine...). http://www.imdb.com/title/tt4192998/

Not really off-topic, since the motivation of the evil Europeans in that show was to force Norway to continue to produce oil after Norwegians decided they no longer needed it.

I really enjoyed the program, not least because I was pleasantly surprised to see something non-USA-produced in which USA was not idiotically militaristic. If Norwegians can imagine it, perhaps we can too...

Re: Norway reportedly agrees on banning new sales of gas-powered cars by 2025

#12
post #6

It's not that petrol cars will be forbidden but buying a new non zero emission car in 2025 will be financially not beneficial, according to Norwegian press. 99% of the electricity in Norway comes from hydro power plants, it's a huge exporter of gas and oil and it's rich. That makes it easier to make such a progressive decision but congrats for setting the first deadline.

The US should do it too, if only for ending it's dependency on imported oil.

Re: Norway reportedly agrees on banning new sales of gas-powered cars by 2025

#13
What I don't get is that this is a pretty confident bet that batteries will dramatically improve. It's not a very densely populated country. It's not like you can have a charging station every 3km. Usually law follows technology. Here it seems to anticipate it massively.

Re: Norway reportedly agrees on banning new sales of gas-powered cars by 2025

#14
post #8

what are they going to do between then and now to get older vehicles out of service? are there emissions tests in Norway? Do they have a cut off date, as in the car is beyond a certain age it is not tested? Do they treat trucks and such the same? I think its an interesting idea and it might work depending on how fast fuel cell and battery technology advances. I have never been a believer of the all battery solution a…

The title speciffically states it is about sales of new vehicles, not existing ones.

Re: Norway reportedly agrees on banning new sales of gas-powered cars by 2025

#15
Passing laws now about what SHOULD be in the future is a way for politicians to make it seem like they're doing something when they have no real solutions. It will be technology and industry innovators and disruptors that make this possible, but I'm sure the intelligentsia and politicians will give "forward thinking policy makers" the credit.

Re: Norway reportedly agrees on banning new sales of gas-powered cars by 2025

#16

To anyone who is thinking: 1) Yeah, they are a small resource rich country, not practical for the rest of us. America, Canada, UK, Saudi Arabia and Australia were resource rich and still are ( America is the largest producer of oil ) and had the opportunity to do what Norway did but chose not to do it. UK had a huge surplus from north sea oil during the 1990s which is allowed private companies to profit off. Same wit…

It's a matter of different politics. Norway chose not to basically let private companies take all the profit from natural resources, while in the UK there's this weird system in place that has politicians ruining public orgs like infrastructure providers to afterwards claim they fixed it, once they pushed for privatization, and all they did was get it back to where it was before in quality of service. After that, it's profit-driven and the population has to fight for laws to keep up existing quality standards they pay for with taxes. There are European countries like Finland where you don't worry which school your kids go to because there are no good or bad school districts. Same for hospitals. If you have to pay taxes for public services, then it must be fair and of equal quality for everybody, or you must turn it all into a Friedman-style privatize-everything system, which may or may not work but sounds thought through and might.

Re: Norway reportedly agrees on banning new sales of gas-powered cars by 2025

#17
I get it that they want to use electricity as the primary energy source for vehicles, and make all sort of fossil fuels non-viable options, but still curious - does "gas" generally means just/mostly gasoline, or applies to LPG as well? (Just that in my native tongue a word "benzin" is used for gasoline, and "gas" is always about propane/butane mixes.)

Re: Norway reportedly agrees on banning new sales of gas-powered cars by 2025

#18
post #13

What I don't get is that this is a pretty confident bet that batteries will dramatically improve. It's not a very densely populated country. It's not like you can have a charging station every 3km. Usually law follows technology. Here it seems to anticipate it massively.

It's not as outlandish as you may think.

Tesla has already said that it expects batteries to cost $100/KWh by 2020. Although that may be a little optimistic, I don't think it's off by more than 2, maybe 3 years. By 2020 batteries could cost around $70/KWh, after which Li-Ion batteries at least, will probably stagnate, as it's close to raw material cost, but I expect some new type of batteries to emerge by then with potential for higher density/$.

But let's say batteries will only be $100/KWh by 2025. There was a recent report [1] saying that at $150/KWh, and considering charging and maintenance costs, which are about 1/3 that of a normal car, EVs should be competitive. So you may pay a little more for an EV upfront, but overall it should be very competitive.

I expect by 2025 we'll see 15,000 euro cars with 200+ mile ranges as well, possibly even from Tesla, but even more likely from Renault, Nissan, Hyundai, etc.

But beyond all of this, I suspect one of the reasons why Norway set up this deadline is because just like Denmark, it actually wants fewer cars on the road. So such a law is very compatible with that goal as well, although in a more indirect way. If you must have a (new) car after 2025, then it better be an EV. I think it makes a lot of sense, and I think we'll see a few more countries establish such goals by 2025, or 2030, as well.

[1] - http://www.techinsider.io/electric-vehicle-battery-cost-decr...

Re: Norway reportedly agrees on banning new sales of gas-powered cars by 2025

#19

To anyone who is thinking: 1) Yeah, they are a small resource rich country, not practical for the rest of us. America, Canada, UK, Saudi Arabia and Australia were resource rich and still are ( America is the largest producer of oil ) and had the opportunity to do what Norway did but chose not to do it. UK had a huge surplus from north sea oil during the 1990s which is allowed private companies to profit off. Same wit…

Venezuela is also resource rich.

Re: Norway reportedly agrees on banning new sales of gas-powered cars by 2025

#20

I get it that they want to use electricity as the primary energy source for vehicles, and make all sort of fossil fuels non-viable options, but still curious - does "gas" generally means just/mostly gasoline, or applies to LPG as well? (Just that in my native tongue a word "benzin" is used for gasoline, and "gas" is always about propane/butane mixes.)

Americans refer to petrol/benzin when they say gas.
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