How often is your gut instinct right? • Hacker News Board

Re: How often is your gut instinct right?

#11

Post by zaidf » Tue, Apr 10, 2007, 2:47 PM UTC

mdakin wrote: post #8

Back when I was in school I noticed a pattern emerge while taking tests over freshman year: If I changed a test answer a statistically HUGE amount of the time I changed it from the correct answer to an incorrect one. After noticing this pattern I stopped second guessing myself!

Last semester I had a professor who banned changing answers once you fill it in on the scantron. That means no erasers. He gave a similar line of reasoning as your experience.

Re: How often is your gut instinct right?

#12

Post by nostrademons » Tue, Apr 10, 2007, 4:38 PM UTC

mdakin wrote: post #8

Back when I was in school I noticed a pattern emerge while taking tests over freshman year: If I changed a test answer a statistically HUGE amount of the time I changed it from the correct answer to an incorrect one. After noticing this pattern I stopped second guessing myself!

I actually noticed the opposite pattern: about 95% of the time, the double-check caught careless mistakes and I ended up with a higher score for it. Perhaps it was because of my typical test-taking strategy: I'd race through the questions and answer every one immediately, then I'd go back and double-check all the steps to make sure I hadn't done anything silly.

I did notice that my score tended to decrease if I triple- or quadruple-checked my answers, though.

Re: How often is your gut instinct right?

#13

Post by mdakin » Tue, Apr 10, 2007, 6:45 PM UTC

nostrademons wrote: post #12

mdakin wrote: post #8

Back when I was in school I noticed a pattern emerge while taking tests over freshman year: If I changed a test answer a statistically HUGE amount of the time I changed it from the correct answer to an incorrect one. After noticing this pattern I stopped second guessing myself!

I actually noticed the opposite pattern: about 95% of the time, the double-check caught careless mistakes and I ended up with a higher score for it. Perhaps it was because of my typical test-taking strategy: I'd race through the questions and answer every one immediately, then I'd go back and double-check all the steps to make sure I hadn't done anything silly. I did notice that my score tended to decrease if I tripl…

I guess the real key is to "know thyself" well enough to know one's optimal strategy!

Re: How often is your gut instinct right?

#14

Post by melhorn » Tue, Apr 10, 2007, 7:45 PM UTC

Question is: Do you really need something like gut instinct?

I think there's one thing that it is appropriate for: Quickly needed decisions with a "social background", if you are experienced at judging human behavior (I don't know the exact English word for "Menschenkenntnis").

Else: Don't do it. Do not decide based on pure gut instinct. Try to get something more dependable: Ask friends, ask experts, talk to people who know more than you or provide a different point of view and then judge their comments against each other. There's almost always a way to get the information you need if you have the time, and it's very seldom you don't have time.

Then it brakes down to experience and self-confidence, I guess. Luckily, my gut instinct is right, usually :-)