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Currency War: U.S. Hedge Funds Mount New Attacks on China's Yuan

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11–20 of 153 posts

Re: Currency War: U.S. Hedge Funds Mount New Attacks on China's Yuan

#11
post #8

Non WSJ-paywalled article by Reuters: http://www.reuters.com/article/uk-china-forex-hedgefunds-idU... Not the same article, FWIW.

Isn't that what the 'web' rules under the title is for?

We really need an official with HN FAQ: https://h4labs.wordpress.com/2015/09/14/hacker-news-faq-1-ho...

Re: Currency War: U.S. Hedge Funds Mount New Attacks on China's Yuan

#12

Isn't everyone and their dog trying to devalue their currency these days to boost exports? What's the problem with weak yuan? Sure, iPhones will get even more expensive to buy in China (rather funny since they are made there) but other than that it should be a boon to exports, no?

Devaluing the currency is great for exporting countries, but remember that China's official plan is to develop a consumer based economy. People who use a devalued currency have no purchasing power and inflation can become a huge problem for growth.

Re: Currency War: U.S. Hedge Funds Mount New Attacks on China's Yuan

#13
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They're trying to do the same time thing as Soros did, yes. But even after its recent $300 billion spending spree to defend the yuan, China still has trillions in foreign currency reserves left, orders of magnitude more than the BoE ever did. And they have a cultural imperative against "giving in" to Western capitalist pigs. I really don't think these guys have thought their plan through.

Exactly this. China also likes shows of strength, and would be more than happy to expend large amounts of cash to bankrupt the people trying this, rather than lose face being broken by them.

If they run out of cash they will start to devalue their currency, that's the bet.

Re: Currency War: U.S. Hedge Funds Mount New Attacks on China's Yuan

#14

Isn't everyone and their dog trying to devalue their currency these days to boost exports? What's the problem with weak yuan? Sure, iPhones will get even more expensive to buy in China (rather funny since they are made there) but other than that it should be a boon to exports, no?

Devaluing the currency is great for exporting countries, but remember that China's official plan is to develop a consumer based economy. People who use a devalued currency have no purchasing power and inflation can become a huge problem for growth.

Why does the economy need to grow? No growth = no bubbles = no busts. Don't see everyone's obsession with growth, growth, growth.

Re: Currency War: U.S. Hedge Funds Mount New Attacks on China's Yuan

#15
post #7

Isn't everyone and their dog trying to devalue their currency these days to boost exports? What's the problem with weak yuan? Sure, iPhones will get even more expensive to buy in China (rather funny since they are made there) but other than that it should be a boon to exports, no?

The main problem is a devalued currency stokes inflation, so consumer costs go up (so do producer costs, but that's offset by better export earnings). China is in the middle of a shift from an export-driven economy to a consumption-driven economy, part of the normal development arc of major economies. But increasing export profits at the expense of households pushes that balance in the wrong direction. For more (much…

Devaluation causes inflation? Not necessarily: http://www.economicshelp.org/macroeconomics/macroessays/does...

Re: Currency War: U.S. Hedge Funds Mount New Attacks on China's Yuan

#16
I don't subscribe to the WSJ so I can't read the OP, but I thought the Yuan was wanting to rise, and that china was slowly letting it revalue. I thought all the economic pressure was aligned that way. Chinese have currency controls so they can't easily sell the yuan to buy other currencies (bitcoin is down for the past couple weeks- the one currency which chinese people love and which doesn't have any controls).

Re: Currency War: U.S. Hedge Funds Mount New Attacks on China's Yuan

#17
post #11
post #8

Non WSJ-paywalled article by Reuters: http://www.reuters.com/article/uk-china-forex-hedgefunds-idU... Not the same article, FWIW.

Isn't that what the 'web' rules under the title is for? We really need an official with HN FAQ: https://h4labs.wordpress.com/2015/09/14/hacker-news-faq-1-ho...

Relabel 'web' to 'no paywall'?

Re: Currency War: U.S. Hedge Funds Mount New Attacks on China's Yuan

#18
post #3

China's economic growth simply isn't sustainable, and that's even if it was true growth. There isn't a top economist alive who believes China's self-reported GDP numbers aren't fudged in one way or another (source: http://www.businessinsider.com/economist-reactions-to-chinas... ). Either one of those situations (an economic slowdown, China fudging the numbers, or the more likely situation: a combination of both) make…

Last I looked, China was a big export economy. So the population size is irrelevant. Look elsewhere for indicators of China's future economic growth.

And never forget, that big revolutionary wave of iPhones and iPads? It came from China manufacturers.

In today's world, if you only look ahead, you will be blindsided from the rear. China is not China any more.

Re: Currency War: U.S. Hedge Funds Mount New Attacks on China's Yuan

#19
What I'm about to say is unfortunate but true. China has a big us against the world mentality. Economic "attacks" are often seen as attacks by nation states, not by individuals, and as such, directly reflect foreign policy attitudes. Language like this only adds fuel to the fire. Given the different worldview about how the world works, motivations will always be suspect. Official party mouthpieces will never view such actions as a secular step to simply make money, and many especially uneducated people (who still make up a huge portion of the country) would agree with the mouthpieces on how to understand it. I'm not saying that we should coddle nation states. I am saying that it's unfortunate that I think an economic exercise would result in strained foreign relations at all levels. At the very least, it easily gives the government a scapegoat on which to blame things.

Re: Currency War: U.S. Hedge Funds Mount New Attacks on China's Yuan

#20
post #3

China's economic growth simply isn't sustainable, and that's even if it was true growth. There isn't a top economist alive who believes China's self-reported GDP numbers aren't fudged in one way or another (source: http://www.businessinsider.com/economist-reactions-to-chinas... ). Either one of those situations (an economic slowdown, China fudging the numbers, or the more likely situation: a combination of both) make…

I would shy away from the word "fudged," but almost every country's gdp numbers are the result of subjective interpretation.
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