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The High-Stakes Race to Rid the World of Human Drivers

theatlantic.com

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Re: The High-Stakes Race to Rid the World of Human Drivers

#11

Post by jurassic »

nostromo wrote: post #8

One thing I haven't heard much about is how humans and AI drivers will interact. If we all assume that AI cars are going to be very conservative and very competent drivers, will people take advantage of that? Will human drivers become even bigger assholes that cut off AI drivers at every possibility, knowing that an AI will not hit them? Why wait in a big line for an exit, when you know an AI car will always let you…

I don't really see the problem with this. Cars should yield to pedestrians and cyclists, and the only reason they don't always do so now is because of some impatient humans at the wheel who prioritize their speed over the safety of other road users.

Without road-raging human drivers behind the wheel, is the vehicle occupant going to care that they got to nap a few minutes longer on the way to work? Or got to read a few more pages of their novel?

Edit to add: Also, I'm looking forward to autonomous police cars who bringing reliable traffic enforcement to all road users.

Re: The High-Stakes Race to Rid the World of Human Drivers

#12

Post by irln »

nostromo wrote: post #8

One thing I haven't heard much about is how humans and AI drivers will interact. If we all assume that AI cars are going to be very conservative and very competent drivers, will people take advantage of that? Will human drivers become even bigger assholes that cut off AI drivers at every possibility, knowing that an AI will not hit them? Why wait in a big line for an exit, when you know an AI car will always let you…

If AI driven cars achieve a superior safety record there won't be many human drivers...the insurance premiums will price most people out of the market. That is, the cost of insurance for human drivers will be exceedingly high.

Re: The High-Stakes Race to Rid the World of Human Drivers

#13

Post by chromaton »

thrownaway2424 wrote: post #9

There's a crazy claim / instance of the Chinese Soda Fallacy in the middle of the article. Why would the first-mover developer of automatic driving software be able to reap 10 cents per mile driven?

>Chinese Soda Fallcy

I've never heard of this particular logical fallacy and search engines are no help. Can you explain?

Re: The High-Stakes Race to Rid the World of Human Drivers

#14

Post by thrownaway2424 »

jurassic wrote: post #11
nostromo wrote: post #8

One thing I haven't heard much about is how humans and AI drivers will interact. If we all assume that AI cars are going to be very conservative and very competent drivers, will people take advantage of that? Will human drivers become even bigger assholes that cut off AI drivers at every possibility, knowing that an AI will not hit them? Why wait in a big line for an exit, when you know an AI car will always let you…

I don't really see the problem with this. Cars should yield to pedestrians and cyclists, and the only reason they don't always do so now is because of some impatient humans at the wheel who prioritize their speed over the safety of other road users. Without road-raging human drivers behind the wheel, is the vehicle occupant going to care that they got to nap a few minutes longer on the way to work? Or got to read a f…

I think you underestimate how crazy and obnoxious people can be. Take San Francisco, as an example. There are people who are poor and disenfranchised, and mentally ill, who feel that it gives them some power to saunter out into traffic and make everybody stop. With an autonomous car, that deranged person can just sit down in front of the car, bringing everything to a halt. Take New York as another example. For years I only walked in NYC and I figured that all drivers were maniacs. Then I drove though Manhattan once and I realized the actual dynamic. If a driver doesn't put on a credible appearance of being willing to run down pedestrians, the pedestrians will never stop crossing the street. How does an autonomous car fit into that?

I think these cars are going to work brilliantly in very polite and orderly places like Zurich, where everybody takes their turn and neither pedestrians nor bicyclists nor drivers feel put upon by the system. I have no idea how they are going to work here in America where we dump our mentally ill on the streets, and then don't give them sidewalks and crosswalks or any sense of dignity. I have a feeling it's going to work quite poorly.

Re: The High-Stakes Race to Rid the World of Human Drivers

#15

Post by woofyman »

jjoonathan wrote: post #10
nostromo wrote: post #8

One thing I haven't heard much about is how humans and AI drivers will interact. If we all assume that AI cars are going to be very conservative and very competent drivers, will people take advantage of that? Will human drivers become even bigger assholes that cut off AI drivers at every possibility, knowing that an AI will not hit them? Why wait in a big line for an exit, when you know an AI car will always let you…

Yes, people will take advantage of AI drivers, but everything will be recorded and I'm sure the autonomous car companies can figure out how to put those recordings to use. Name&shame, sell the info to insurance companies, push to make it an automatic ticket, etc. After a shakedown period a more or less reasonable compromise will surely emerge.

I don't want to live in a society where every car becomes a tool of law enforcement.

Re: The High-Stakes Race to Rid the World of Human Drivers

#16

Post by thrownaway2424 »

chromaton wrote: post #13
thrownaway2424 wrote: post #9

There's a crazy claim / instance of the Chinese Soda Fallacy in the middle of the article. Why would the first-mover developer of automatic driving software be able to reap 10 cents per mile driven?

>Chinese Soda Fallcy I've never heard of this particular logical fallacy and search engines are no help. Can you explain?

Hrmm, I did find exactly one instance of the phrase on Google. I'm surprised, too.

As it was explained to me, a Chinese Soda Fallacy is a business plan wherein you stand to make a dollar selling a Coke to everybody in China. You will make a billion dollars! Except that the market-clearing price for Coke in China isn't a dollar, and not everybody wants one, and so on and so forth.

The idea that you will make a dime every time anyone drives a mile strikes me as perfectly congruent with that fallacy.

Edit: This article seems to address the topic without using the phrase.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB100014240529702048303045741335...

A COKE FOR EVERY KID IN CHINA This gambit rests its case on a plethora of secondary data to show how large and fast-growing a market is. The plan then makes a heroic leap and assumes that the new venture will grab X percent of that market it could be 1%, 10%, 30% or whatever. "Surely," the plan argues, "with the large number of customers in our market, we'll easily get enough. We only need a small fraction to have a very nice business."

Re: The High-Stakes Race to Rid the World of Human Drivers

#17

Post by zkhalique »

woofyman wrote: post #15
jjoonathan wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, people will take advantage of AI drivers, but everything will be recorded and I'm sure the autonomous car companies can figure out how to put those recordings to use. Name&shame, sell the info to insurance companies, push to make it an automatic ticket, etc. After a shakedown period a more or less reasonable compromise will surely emerge.

I don't want to live in a society where every car becomes a tool of law enforcement.

Unfortunately, that's where things are headed regardless. More cameras, cheaper sensors, big data. Every intersection will eventually give you a red light ticket. Etc etc.

Re: The High-Stakes Race to Rid the World of Human Drivers

#18

Post by larrymcp »

Well if this is a "race" as the headline says, it sure is gonna be a long race, folks. These cars haven't yet been programmed to handle things like snow-covered roads where you can't see the lines, or construction zones that have you driving on the opposite side of the road at the direction of flaggers, etc... there's just a ton of work remaining to be done if your goal is truly to "rid the world of human drivers".

Re: The High-Stakes Race to Rid the World of Human Drivers

#19

Post by sanswork »

thrownaway2424 wrote: post #14
jurassic wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't really see the problem with this. Cars should yield to pedestrians and cyclists, and the only reason they don't always do so now is because of some impatient humans at the wheel who prioritize their speed over the safety of other road users. Without road-raging human drivers behind the wheel, is the vehicle occupant going to care that they got to nap a few minutes longer on the way to work? Or got to read a f…

I think you underestimate how crazy and obnoxious people can be. Take San Francisco, as an example. There are people who are poor and disenfranchised, and mentally ill, who feel that it gives them some power to saunter out into traffic and make everybody stop. With an autonomous car, that deranged person can just sit down in front of the car, bringing everything to a halt. Take New York as another example. For years…

>that deranged person can just sit down in front of the car, bringing everything to a halt.

They can do that now unless you are suggesting running them over as a solution.

Re: The High-Stakes Race to Rid the World of Human Drivers

#20

Post by mikeash »

chiph wrote: post #6
rconti wrote: post #2

I just bought a 2016 Volkswagen that has laser cruise control and lane assist. I ordered the fully loaded package because the incremental cost was not large, and I figured I might as well have all the toys if I was going to the expense of buying a brand-new car. I consider myself an enthusiast; I have a fair bit of time on the racetrack in lapping days and amateur races, sometimes I volunteer at car control clinics a…

I have mixed opinions on the new assistive technology. Blind-spot monitoring is pretty good - it's not intrusive (just a yellow light in your outside mirror) and can save you from an embarrassing accident. Same with the ultrasonic/radar parking assist. I rarely parallel park (there just aren't that many of that style parking spots any more) so the system really helps me judge where the back corners of the car are. I…

I personally found that lane departure warning made me a much more precise driver. I like that a lot. It goes off in error sometimes too, but it's rare now that I've been trained to properly stay within the lines.
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