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"I deeply believe that if three recent college grads (and one dropout) could turn an online reality tv show into a billion dollar company then literally anyone can be successful online." There are so many things wrong with drawing that conclusion.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
That's a pretty passive attitude to take. One amazing thing about software projects, for a technical person, is that you don't have to wait around to find someone to give you money to play with.
I was suggesting the reason more people (especially non-technical people like the author) don't have successful startups. But it's also true that creating something like Twitch is nearly impossible without funding. They could not have bootstrapped it for 5 years because it was/is not profitable, even though it might be a great long-term business.
For every slow-burn success like Twitch there are likely a hundred niche businesses that could earn a modest profit immediately, but are not large enough to interest funding parties or starry-eyed founders.
"I deeply believe that if three recent college grads (and one dropout) could turn an online reality tv show into a billion dollar company then literally anyone can be successful online." There are so many things wrong with drawing that conclusion.
Yeah...it's akin to saying "I believe that [extreme outliers happen], then [they define the general rule]." Their outcome is wonderful, and I'm happy for them, but it's so many sigmas from the norm they may as well be Toyota consultants from the 90s.
I am not catching the reference. Can you explain or link to something I can read. Are you talking about Kaizen?
"I deeply believe that if three recent college grads (and one dropout) could turn an online reality tv show into a billion dollar company then literally anyone can be successful online." There are so many things wrong with drawing that conclusion.
Yeah...it's akin to saying "I believe that [extreme outliers happen], then [they define the general rule]." Their outcome is wonderful, and I'm happy for them, but it's so many sigmas from the norm they may as well be Toyota consultants from the 90s.
"I deeply believe that if three recent college grads (and one dropout) could turn an online reality tv show into a billion dollar company then literally anyone can be successful online." There are so many things wrong with drawing that conclusion.
> What each of the companies had in common was that they built something that was useful, created a feedback loop of getting user feedback and iterating on the product, and kept at their startups long enough for the market they were in to mature. > I deeply believe that if three recent college grads (and one dropout) could turn an online reality tv show into a billion dollar company then literally anyone can be succe…
The most surefire way to be able to spend 5 years working on a project that isn't profitable is to spend 5 years saving 50% of your salary. How do you save 50% of your income for 5 years? Get a job paying double the median income (~80th percentile [1]) and live like the median person. Or get a job paying at about the 60th percentile ($65K) and live like someone making half that (~30th percentile). Both of them are eminently achievable for many Americans - by the numbers, 20% for the former and 40% for the latter.
Most people don't do this because they feel like they must be better than the people who make half of what they do, and so blow the excess income on a lifestyle that doesn't really make them happier but certainly makes them look better. If you don't give a shit about others thinking that you're a pauper, you can amass a good amount of freedom, power, and yes, money without anyone knowing.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Household_income_in_the_United...
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yeah...it's akin to saying "I believe that [extreme outliers happen], then [they define the general rule]." Their outcome is wonderful, and I'm happy for them, but it's so many sigmas from the norm they may as well be Toyota consultants from the 90s.
"it's so many sigmas from the norm they may as well be Toyota consultants from the 90s" I am not catching the reference. Can you explain or link to something I can read. Are you talking about Kaizen?
"I deeply believe that if three recent college grads (and one dropout) could turn an online reality tv show into a billion dollar company then literally anyone can be successful online." There are so many things wrong with drawing that conclusion.
No there really isn't. Justin is getting at a truth about startups: "If you can just avoid dying, you get rich." Paul Graham wrote that 8 years ago ( http://paulgraham.com/die.html ), and I wonder if it was (subconsciously?) an inspiration to this post by Justin? My guess is that it's actually more likely that Justin feels this truth intuitively. I believe that this is a truth that is so fundamental to startups that…
Having said all that, I think Justin has put the simple success receipe quite succinctly in this article: Produce, get feedback and iterate. Doing this enough number of times in growth market can produce very likely success. That's beautiful, powerful, compact advice.
> What each of the companies had in common was that they built something that was useful, created a feedback loop of getting user feedback and iterating on the product, and kept at their startups long enough for the market they were in to mature. > I deeply believe that if three recent college grads (and one dropout) could turn an online reality tv show into a billion dollar company then literally anyone can be succe…
If it's impossible, it's only because few people have the psychological makeup to delay gratification for years. The most surefire way to be able to spend 5 years working on a project that isn't profitable is to spend 5 years saving 50% of your salary. How do you save 50% of your income for 5 years? Get a job paying double the median income (~80th percentile [1]) and live like the median person. Or get a job paying a…
I will never go back to a cubicle in Silicon Valley. Never.