Why do so many ex-offenders go back to prison? A new study suggests they don't

Post by gsibble » Tue, Nov 24, 2015, 6:51 PM UTC

srgseg wrote: post #6

srgseg wrote: post #3

A way of explaining it that (hopefully) makes it clearer: Let's say you have just invented the concept of prison, and let's say 50% of people come back every year after going to prison for the first time, and 50% never come back again. In year 2, you'd observe that of the year 1 population, 50% returned, and 50% didn't. In year 2, you'd also add a new influx of prisoners. Therefore, in year 3, you'd observe that of t…

To expand on their mall analogy: There is a big difference between asking "what percentage of this week's mall visitors will return next week", and asking "when people visit this mall for the first time, what percentage of them will return the following week".

Post by scottshepard » Tue, Nov 24, 2015, 6:58 PM UTC

gsibble wrote: post #11

ncallaway wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While it may not be the principal account for incarceration rates, the paper does note that 17% of the current prison population is in prison on drug-related charges. Additionally, it notes that 20% of the growth in prison populations can be attributed to drug-related charges, and that about 20% of the flow of prisoners can be attributed to drug-related charges. That 20% number is still a massive number of people inc…

If the CPU usage of my code jumped by a massive percentage, and only 20% of it can be attributed to one problem, I'm certainly going to pay attention to it. But I'm going to pay a lot more attention to the problems causing the other 80%.

Post by Abraln » Tue, Nov 24, 2015, 7:01 PM UTC

gsibble wrote: post #12

srgseg wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To expand on their mall analogy: There is a big difference between asking "what percentage of this week's mall visitors will return next week", and asking "when people visit this mall for the first time, what percentage of them will return the following week".

So the difference in their studies is what percentage of first time offenders will return to prison vs. what percentage of overall prisoners will return to prison?

Post by [deleted] » Tue, Nov 24, 2015, 7:23 PM UTC

mod wrote: post #9

tptacek wrote: post #7

A better source, with a previous HN discussion, that says much the same thing, is far better sourced, and makes a lot of other important points: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10091586 HN readers will be unhappy to read that the war on drugs is not principally, directly responsible for US incarceration rates. HN readers will probably thrilled to read that responsibility for over-incarceration is placed squarely…

> the rate at which arrestees are charged with felonies has climbed sharply, despite an overall drop in crime. My gut reaction is that it's probably because of an overall drop in crime. Gotta keep putting up good numbers!

Post by hackuser » Tue, Nov 24, 2015, 7:30 PM UTC

tptacek wrote: post #7

A better source, with a previous HN discussion, that says much the same thing, is far better sourced, and makes a lot of other important points: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10091586 HN readers will be unhappy to read that the war on drugs is not principally, directly responsible for US incarceration rates. HN readers will probably thrilled to read that responsibility for over-incarceration is placed squarely…