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Beat the Fed

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11–20 of 47 posts

Re: Beat the Fed

#11
post #6

Perhaps I am economically naive, but why does there need to be any inflation? Why isn't 0 a target?

The consensus is that slight deflation is much more dangerous than slight inflation, so while zero would be ideal it's not worth the risk of deflation

Re: Beat the Fed

#12
post #3

At first glance, had no idea what I was supposed to do or how it worked. At second glance, it seems like you're just setting price inflation on a number of components, trying to get the weighted average to be 2%. Wildly overhyped "game"?

Yeah, I don't get it either. I dragged each control to the maximum one by one, until I got to 2%. Then I clicked the button and won, even though I hadn't touched half of the controls yet. I assume there's supposed to be some underlying lesson in it....

Re: Beat the Fed

#13
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To encourage spending

Inflation of zero is just as good for encouraging spending as small positive inflation -- the rate you'll get by low-risk investing will always beat inflation by a bit. But the moment inflation dips below zero it really starts discouraging spending. So I suspect it's about having a margin for error. Target zero and it will spend a lot of time negative, target mildly positive and it will spend most of its time mildly…

>But the moment inflation dips below zero it really starts discouraging spending.

While this view is common, it is incorrect.

This is obviously evident when you consider the price of computers and other tech products over the decades.

Re: Beat the Fed

#14
This "game" seems to allow me to modify the outcome of the Fed's policies, and not the inputs. Unless it's advocating price controls as a means to economic prosperity, I don't see the relevance.

Am I missing something here?

Re: Beat the Fed

#15
post #12
post #3

At first glance, had no idea what I was supposed to do or how it worked. At second glance, it seems like you're just setting price inflation on a number of components, trying to get the weighted average to be 2%. Wildly overhyped "game"?

Yeah, I don't get it either. I dragged each control to the maximum one by one, until I got to 2%. Then I clicked the button and won, even though I hadn't touched half of the controls yet. I assume there's supposed to be some underlying lesson in it....

I'm guessing the 'lesson' from your iteration is that you increased prices most on a subset of goods- housing and utilities, health care, and financial services and insurance- while leaving the rest to track their industry.

The problem with that, and with health care especially, is that the 'native' price increase already far outstrips inflation. With that monetary policy, you've introduced an extra 5% tax on already quickly growing industry. So a family going through a health care crisis or crisis of changing insurance will be affected negatively, whereas a family only buying groceries and liquor will feel no undue changes.

So that's what I'm guessing the article is saying, where can/should/will the Fed attempt to affect American savings and purchases.

Re: Beat the Fed

#16
post #12
post #3

At first glance, had no idea what I was supposed to do or how it worked. At second glance, it seems like you're just setting price inflation on a number of components, trying to get the weighted average to be 2%. Wildly overhyped "game"?

Yeah, I don't get it either. I dragged each control to the maximum one by one, until I got to 2%. Then I clicked the button and won, even though I hadn't touched half of the controls yet. I assume there's supposed to be some underlying lesson in it....

[deleted]

Re: Beat the Fed

#17
post #6

Perhaps I am economically naive, but why does there need to be any inflation? Why isn't 0 a target?

A popular modern economic theory is that if prices rise slowly over time, people will tend to purchase today instead of saving money to purchase tomorrow, since they believe the price of what they want will be higher tomorrow. If prices drop slowly over time, people will tend to save as long as possible before purchasing, since they believe the price of what they want will be lower tomorrow. Since simple economic productivity is measured by summing the amount of dollars spent, the theory is that for these reasons low inflation leads to productivity.

Re: Beat the Fed

#18
post #6

Perhaps I am economically naive, but why does there need to be any inflation? Why isn't 0 a target?

http://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/economy_14400.htm

Leave it to economists to claim a correlation, and simply forget to say that the best models (supported by lots of empirical evidence) predict it's a causation.

Re: Beat the Fed

#19
post #6

Perhaps I am economically naive, but why does there need to be any inflation? Why isn't 0 a target?

Boost equity prices. Putting money in mattress gets -(inflation) return, so how about stocks?

Very theoretically it sets a "you must be this tall to play" floor on stock financed capital projects. So if inflation is 4% and you think new railroad locomotives will pay off at 5% average, then you do it, or if new locos only pay off at 3% then you don't because you'd get a sub-inflation rate of return on stocks or bonds.

Another argument is its essentially a long term debt jubilee, given the extremely optimistic assumption that wages rise with inflation (LOL, not so much since the 80s or so). So at both personal and corporate level, debts as a problem kind of go away with time. A decade of 70s style wage inflation would certainly help with the student loan crisis and the real estate price crisis.

Re: Beat the Fed

#20
post #15
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, I don't get it either. I dragged each control to the maximum one by one, until I got to 2%. Then I clicked the button and won, even though I hadn't touched half of the controls yet. I assume there's supposed to be some underlying lesson in it....

I'm guessing the 'lesson' from your iteration is that you increased prices most on a subset of goods- housing and utilities, health care, and financial services and insurance- while leaving the rest to track their industry. The problem with that, and with health care especially, is that the 'native' price increase already far outstrips inflation. With that monetary policy, you've introduced an extra 5% tax on already…

Of course, the Fed doesn't make that kind of targeting decisions because monetary policy -- the only lever the Fed has -- doesn't work that way. Targeted effects are the domain of fiscal policy (where government choose to tax and spend), not monetary policy, and are the domain of Congress, not the Federal Reserve.
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