Rationing, errors and mammogram math
nytimes.com
Rationing, errors and mammogram math
1–6 of 6 posts
Re: Rationing, errors and mammogram math
#2Wow! Bayesian analysis in the New York Times. Maybe there is hope for this world after all.
Re: Rationing, errors and mammogram math
#3Wow! Bayesian analysis in the New York Times. Maybe there is hope for this world after all.
I'll start by saying that I'm not trolling.
Using conditional probability, or bayes theorem to calculate a conditional probabilitiy, does not make something bayesian analysis.
I haven't read the original report (it's on my list) but what is presented in this article isn't really anything except probability. It would be bayesian if they put a distribution on the proportion of people that have a "certain cancer."
Re: Rationing, errors and mammogram math
#4Wow! Bayesian analysis in the New York Times. Maybe there is hope for this world after all.
I'll start by saying that I'm not trolling. Using conditional probability, or bayes theorem to calculate a conditional probabilitiy, does not make something bayesian analysis. I haven't read the original report (it's on my list) but what is presented in this article isn't really anything except probability. It would be bayesian if they put a distribution on the proportion of people that have a "certain cancer."
http://yudkowsky.net/rational/bayes
He uses the mammogram statistics as an example to explain Bayes' Theorem.
Re: Rationing, errors and mammogram math
#5The mammogram examples are everywhere! Where did it come from?
Re: Rationing, errors and mammogram math
#6Wow! Bayesian analysis in the New York Times. Maybe there is hope for this world after all.
John Allen Paulos seems to be very intent on increasing the numeric literacy (I think he calls it numeracy) of people in general. Its a laudable goal indeed.
This is the kind of example that we can give to grade school kids and have them work it out. It would be a great "ah ha!" moment for some of them.