W.H.O. Forecast for Ebola Worsens as Mortality Rate Rises
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Re: W.H.O. Forecast for Ebola Worsens as Mortality Rate Rises
#2I'm trying to remain calm about this, but its growing increasingly difficult.
We're not far off pandemic territory. 10k new cases per week?
Very very alarming.
Re: W.H.O. Forecast for Ebola Worsens as Mortality Rate Rises
#3I'm trying to remain calm about this, but its growing increasingly difficult. We're not far off pandemic territory. 10k new cases per week ? Very very alarming.
I'm really interested to see if the r-naught is sustainable in developed countries. This paper (http://www.eurosurveillance.org/ViewArticle.aspx?ArticleId=2...) projects it as between 1.0 and 2.0 -- the nurse in Dallas makes it at least 1 for the first US case, but it could be a few more weeks to know if she was the only one.
Re: W.H.O. Forecast for Ebola Worsens as Mortality Rate Rises
#4I'm worried about the coming flu season. Many people will have the early symptoms shared by both flu and ebola (a fever and a headache). The medical establishment will need to find needles in the haystack.
Don't skip the flu shot this (or any) year, folks.
Re: W.H.O. Forecast for Ebola Worsens as Mortality Rate Rises
#5I'm worried about the coming flu season. Many people will have the early symptoms shared by both flu and ebola (a fever and a headache). The medical establishment will need to find needles in the haystack. Don't skip the flu shot this (or any) year, folks.
I've never gotten the flu shot, and hadn't planned to this year. I'm in great health; my immune system seems to be functioning extremely well. I never get sick.
However, I am concerned about the needle-haystack phenomenon with ebola.
Can you link me to a reasonable, digestible abstract about the real pros-and-cons of flu shot?
Re: W.H.O. Forecast for Ebola Worsens as Mortality Rate Rises
#6I'm worried about the coming flu season. Many people will have the early symptoms shared by both flu and ebola (a fever and a headache). The medical establishment will need to find needles in the haystack. Don't skip the flu shot this (or any) year, folks.
I have never gotten a flu shot in my life. The last time I remember having the flu was over 10 years ago ... actually, the last time I can remember actually being diagnosed with the flu was on the day before going to first grade. So make that 20 years ago.
Do those shots really do anything much?
edit: the last time I had a serious viral sickness it was a combination viral and bacterial angina (mononucleosis combined with a normal angina) and that was about 8 years ago.
Re: W.H.O. Forecast for Ebola Worsens as Mortality Rate Rises
#7I'm trying to remain calm about this, but its growing increasingly difficult. We're not far off pandemic territory. 10k new cases per week ? Very very alarming.
I'm really interested to see if the r-naught is sustainable in developed countries. This paper ( http://www.eurosurveillance.org/ViewArticle.aspx?ArticleId=2... ) projects it as between 1.0 and 2.0 -- the nurse in Dallas makes it at least 1 for the first US case, but it could be a few more weeks to know if she was the only one.
>Our statistical analysis of the reproduction number of EVD in West Africa has demonstrated that the continuous growth of cases from June to August 2014 signalled a major epidemic, which is in line with estimates of the Rt above 1.0. Moreover, the timing of Rt reaching levels above one is in line with a concomitant surge in cases in Sierra Leone and Liberia. In a worst-case hypothetical scenario, should the outbreak continue with recent trends, the case burden could gain an additional 77,181 to 277,124 cases by the end of 2014.
Not good. R~2 is a deeply scary figure. R1.7 is better but still wildly explosive. 1.4 puts us in run of the mill "ballooning epidemic" territory.
The best case estimates of R-naught for Africa don't have a whole lot of "best" about them.
Clearly the dataset outside Africa isn't large enough to support meaningful analysis yet. I hope it stays that way, and Africa can get its arms around this thing before it kills millions.
Re: W.H.O. Forecast for Ebola Worsens as Mortality Rate Rises
#8I'm worried about the coming flu season. Many people will have the early symptoms shared by both flu and ebola (a fever and a headache). The medical establishment will need to find needles in the haystack. Don't skip the flu shot this (or any) year, folks.
I have never gotten a flu shot in my life. The last time I remember having the flu was over 10 years ago ... actually, the last time I can remember actually being diagnosed with the flu was on the day before going to first grade. So make that 20 years ago. Do those shots really do anything much? edit: the last time I had a serious viral sickness it was a combination viral and bacterial angina (mononucleosis combined…
They handed them out at one of my previous jobs (corporate gig). Everyone that went for them came down with a mild flu after the shot and then proceeded to catch every other flu that came around during the winter.
edit: I hadn't realised sharing experience was such a downvotable offence... note I observed this over 3 years. Obviously the flu jab targets specific strains of flu, if the jab you get doesn't target the strains that happen to come round that winter then it's not going to help at all. I've no idea how well they can predict which strains will be in circulation but in my experience, not very well.
Re: W.H.O. Forecast for Ebola Worsens as Mortality Rate Rises
#9I'm worried about the coming flu season. Many people will have the early symptoms shared by both flu and ebola (a fever and a headache). The medical establishment will need to find needles in the haystack. Don't skip the flu shot this (or any) year, folks.
I have never gotten a flu shot in my life. The last time I remember having the flu was over 10 years ago ... actually, the last time I can remember actually being diagnosed with the flu was on the day before going to first grade. So make that 20 years ago. Do those shots really do anything much? edit: the last time I had a serious viral sickness it was a combination viral and bacterial angina (mononucleosis combined…
They raise your antibody serum levels so you are better able to fight live virus.
Re: W.H.O. Forecast for Ebola Worsens as Mortality Rate Rises
#10I'm trying to remain calm about this, but its growing increasingly difficult. We're not far off pandemic territory. 10k new cases per week ? Very very alarming.
I'm really interested to see if the r-naught is sustainable in developed countries. This paper ( http://www.eurosurveillance.org/ViewArticle.aspx?ArticleId=2... ) projects it as between 1.0 and 2.0 -- the nurse in Dallas makes it at least 1 for the first US case, but it could be a few more weeks to know if she was the only one.
For others who wondered about the R-naught reference - how many people one infected person will then onwards infect.
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number
Measles is 12-18, Ebola 1-2. Before that makes you feel comforted, 1918 flu had r0 of 2-3.
Great.