Scary 1929 market chart gains traction
marketwatch.com
Scary 1929 market chart gains traction
1–10 of 42 posts
Re: Scary 1929 market chart gains traction
#2FYI, with charts like this it's kind of important to do some quantitative work, not just take a look. Check out this taxonomy of charts:
http://blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor/2013/05/15/an-r-squar...
Re: Scary 1929 market chart gains traction
#3Yeah, patterns like this are much easier to find than you'd think and don't have any predictive value.
Yes, the market could take a dive (or shoot upwards) any time, but not because of the pattern in this chart.
Re: Scary 1929 market chart gains traction
#4Folks smarter than me: is it prudent to move my assets into cash for a couple of months? Is there really anything to this?
Re: Scary 1929 market chart gains traction
#5Folks smarter than me: is it prudent to move my assets into cash for a couple of months? Is there really anything to this?
The basic strategy that I've always seen outlined: put a bit each month into an index fund. If the market tanks, that means you are buying low!
Re: Scary 1929 market chart gains traction
#6Folks smarter than me: is it prudent to move my assets into cash for a couple of months? Is there really anything to this?
The basic strategy that I've always seen outlined: put a bit each month into an index fund. If the market tanks, that means you are buying low!
it's even simpler and effective to be buying only at ema crossovers!
Re: Scary 1929 market chart gains traction
#7Folks smarter than me: is it prudent to move my assets into cash for a couple of months? Is there really anything to this?
For all times t, there is a chart that makes it look like the market will tank at t+1.
Re: Scary 1929 market chart gains traction
#8Yeah, patterns like this are much easier to find than you'd think and don't have any predictive value. Yes, the market could take a dive (or shoot upwards) any time, but not because of the pattern in this chart.
i HATE "news" like this. we know it's not correlated, but it's scary how the media can essentially manipulate the market. hope this doesn't get covered by more popular news outlets.
Re: Scary 1929 market chart gains traction
#9I think that if this chart does have predictive power, the implications are far stronger and weirder than just "the stock market is going to drop next month". If there is a match to these random ups and downs, then why? What does each of them signify?
Luckily, it has no such predictive power.
Re: Scary 1929 market chart gains traction
#10The y-axis tells the story. In 1928-29, the market lost about 45% of its value (375 down to 200). If the pattern holds, the current market will go from about 16400 to 12400, which is 25% of its value. That's still bad, but not as bad as 1928-1929.