Dataset: Ten Years of NFL Plays Analyzed, Visualized, Quizzified
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Dataset: Ten Years of NFL Plays Analyzed, Visualized, Quizzified
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Re: Dataset: Ten Years of NFL Plays Analyzed, Visualized, Quizzified
#2"You got 2 out of 5 answers correct. When you try this quiz with a sorry quiz-taker like you, that’s the result you’re going to get."
Sassy. Jesus Christ.
Re: Dataset: Ten Years of NFL Plays Analyzed, Visualized, Quizzified
#3"You got 2 out of 5 answers correct. When you try this quiz with a sorry quiz-taker like you, that’s the result you’re going to get." Sassy. Jesus Christ.
Richard Sherman [1] must have written this quiz.
Re: Dataset: Ten Years of NFL Plays Analyzed, Visualized, Quizzified
#4"You got 2 out of 5 answers correct. When you try this quiz with a sorry quiz-taker like you, that’s the result you’re going to get." Sassy. Jesus Christ.
OP here
Made the message a bit friendlier for future folks, thanks for the feedback :)
Re: Dataset: Ten Years of NFL Plays Analyzed, Visualized, Quizzified
#5If you're willing to limit yourself to the last five years, you can avoid the pain of parsing those free-form text descriptions with nflgame[1] or nfldb[2]. Disclaimer: I am the author of those tools. We've been slowly building up a small community of people using it. In fact, I'm currently in a small fantasy playoff league that's running off nflgame.
They also include live updates while games are playing.
I'd be curious to see if you get any substantially different results using structured data (nflgame gets it from NFL.com's JSON feed) as opposed to parsing the text descriptions.
Re: Dataset: Ten Years of NFL Plays Analyzed, Visualized, Quizzified
#6If you're willing to limit yourself to the last five years, you can avoid the pain of parsing those free-form text descriptions with nflgame[1] or nfldb[2]. Disclaimer: I am the author of those tools. We've been slowly building up a small community of people using it. In fact, I'm currently in a small fantasy playoff league that's running off nflgame. They also include live updates while games are playing. I'd be cur…
OP here. That is awesome.
I'd definitely recommend people use this over the download at the bottom of the blog post, it's really painful to parse the free text (there's a lot of weird edge cases). I'll add a link to this stuff in the post.
edit: clarity
update: link added to post
Re: Dataset: Ten Years of NFL Plays Analyzed, Visualized, Quizzified
#7The 4th and 2 on the 2 argument bothers me every time someone brings it up. To me it feels like its an incorrect use of statistics. EV isn't the end all - kicking the field goal has way lower variance. If your goal is winning consistently then giving up high variance high EV plays for low variance slightly lower EV plays is often the right choice, as a football season is made up of a very low number of discrete events.
About 45% of all games finish with a spread of 7 or less according to a quick search. Making a play that has a close to 50% chance of making you be down 3 points is costing you a lot of the margin if you think you are a close favorite.
You can't win more in football but you can lose a sure win, so if you believe you are say a 3-4 point favorite then the right play is to take the field goal every time - giving up the safe points means you take half the games and make them a crap shoot.
Re: Dataset: Ten Years of NFL Plays Analyzed, Visualized, Quizzified
#8If you're willing to limit yourself to the last five years, you can avoid the pain of parsing those free-form text descriptions with nflgame[1] or nfldb[2]. Disclaimer: I am the author of those tools. We've been slowly building up a small community of people using it. In fact, I'm currently in a small fantasy playoff league that's running off nflgame. They also include live updates while games are playing. I'd be cur…
OP here. That is awesome. I'd definitely recommend people use this over the download at the bottom of the blog post, it's really painful to parse the free text (there's a lot of weird edge cases). I'll add a link to this stuff in the post. edit: clarity update: link added to post
> it's really painful to parse the free text
I can only imagine. I've tried motivating myself to do it a few times so I could increase the amount of data in nfldb (I believe they are available in one form or another all the way back to 1999), but it's a rather daunting task when there are so many statistical categories.[1]
[1] - https://github.com/BurntSushi/nfldb/wiki/Statistical-categor...
Re: Dataset: Ten Years of NFL Plays Analyzed, Visualized, Quizzified
#9Fun stuff!
You might want to make it clear you want the decisions most likely to succeed, not the decision most common among professional coaches (who are presumably optimizing some other form of career-stability-against-criticism).
Re: Dataset: Ten Years of NFL Plays Analyzed, Visualized, Quizzified
#10If you're willing to limit yourself to the last five years, you can avoid the pain of parsing those free-form text descriptions with nflgame[1] or nfldb[2]. Disclaimer: I am the author of those tools. We've been slowly building up a small community of people using it. In fact, I'm currently in a small fantasy playoff league that's running off nflgame. They also include live updates while games are playing. I'd be cur…
Oh man, this is just the best -- I can't wait to play around with this.