What are your predictions for the world in general for 2014?
Ask HN: What are your 2014 Predictions?
1–10 of 65 posts
Re: Ask HN: What are your 2014 Predictions?
#2Micropayments go mainstream.
Re: Ask HN: What are your 2014 Predictions?
#3I'll shoot for;
1) We see a 'start-up' bubble form as sites like we funder open the mass market to VC.
2) Bitcoin has some big peaks and dips but ends the year overall on a reasonable up.
3) The US starts to feel inflationary effects from ongoing quantitive easing.
Re: Ask HN: What are your 2014 Predictions?
#4I am 100% sure the world will not end again.
Because if it does no one can call me on this prediction.
Re: Ask HN: What are your 2014 Predictions?
#5webRTC becomes easily usable and almost fully implemented by the end of 2014.
Re: Ask HN: What are your 2014 Predictions?
#61. Stock market: up.
2. Economy (U.S. and world): up.
3. Political polarization: up.
4. Stupid-patent lawsuits: up.
5. World violence: down.
Re: Ask HN: What are your 2014 Predictions?
#7There will be an exponential increase in Bitcoin pseudo-intellectuals in the media (and everywhere else, of course).
Re: Ask HN: What are your 2014 Predictions?
#8People will start switching to Google+
Re: Ask HN: What are your 2014 Predictions?
#91) Actual international-conflict geopolitical risk will not bubble over in 2014. Stupid saber-rattling in Asia, insurgencies and wars in Africa, but nothing critical.
2) Security/privacy will become something normal people and businesses ask about, and ask fairly superficial questions about, during many transactions (e.g. people are going to stop being fucking morons and just relying on "the cloud" for sensitive data without questioning it; they may still end up using the cloud, but will want to make a more informed choice.)
3) Snowden, Manning, and Assange will remain in the same positions on 31 DEC as they started on 1 JAN. weev will remain in prison. aaronsw
4) Zerocoin will launch, and will be a lot more interesting than Bitcoin to many Bitcoin early adopters. Alternative digital currencies which are NOT purely proof-of-work will also start to be interesting; not necessarily USD backed, but maybe equities, or debt instruments, or whatever. Some may be based on bitcoin. Either Open Transactions or a strippled-of-XRP form of Ripple, or something like it (blinded tokens). BTC/USD will remain between 250 and 2000 on 31 DEC, even if it has excursions. If I had to bet, I'd bet today's price/no net change as the most likely center (the "most likely" single price is of course 0, but plenty of other prices are also likely)
5) Apple will continue to slide into irrelevance; the vanguard of most-technical users will move away from iOS and OSX, if not Apple hardware, due to Apple anti-freedom policies
6) Someone will actually put together a credible packaged solution for secure CPE (wifi-wifi, wifi-ether), secure basebandless pda thing, secure laptop (a modified chromebook or something), server solution, and network services, in a way which can be verified down to the metal, for pro and enterprise/intl sales, at semi-sane price points (i.e. not Crypto AG prices)
7) A non-US location will emerge as a serious startup location specifically due to NSA/USG policies. I'm betting on Germany with German/Swiss arbitrage -- people living/working in Berlin on dev and ops in Switzerland. Maybe other non-EU/EU splits.
8) US mid-term 2014 elections will consist of "fuck the incumbents", independent of political party.
9) Yahoo will continue to slide into doom, and will be revealed to be the biggest collaborator among major non-financial, non-travel, non-carrier companies in the US. Alibaba will remain their only real value.
10) China will start to try to take the "moral high ground" on issues as a counterpoint to the US. It won't be universal, but it will hopefully cause US politicians (and electorate) to rethink things. They may offer to help in Afghanistan post US-withdrawal, in the same way they help in Africa today -- economic support, little political involvement.
Re: Ask HN: What are your 2014 Predictions?
#10- Coup d'état in North Korea, with civil war between pro-democratic forces and loyalist forces. American, South Korean forces entering North Korea from the DMZ and Chinese troops entering from the Yalu river. North Korea is divided in half. China declares a large buffer zone, forcing South Korea to concede 25% of the peninsula. Japanese Self Defense Force clashes with Chinese Navy in a limited naval/air battle which results in Chinese loss. Both sides declare victory.
- Another dot-com bust. Facebook is delisted from stock exchange after share prices crash and investors lose confidence in rapidly declining user-base. Amazon crashes, Walmart takes over the space left behind by Amazon after being acquired. The idea of valuation from future profits in technology stocks is wiped out with the major market correction. Warren Buffet addresses it in his annual shareholder's meeting.
- United States announces return to the gold standard angering China as the treasury notes become worthless.Global recession many times bigger than the 2008 market crash soon follows.
- Bitcoin is made illegal as it is discovered the Founder of Bitcoin turns out to be Ross Ulbricht, the founder of Silk Road. Cryptocurrency is banned in United States and other nations follow.