Memoirs of a Poker Bot Developer
mattmazur.com
Memoirs of a Poker Bot Developer
1–10 of 29 posts
Re: Memoirs of a Poker Bot Developer
#2Everything casino related should be considered spam, unless there is absolutely no mention of a real casino website.
They are masters of deception and even if the post is tech related it should be watched closely.
I know them for I've been inside the beast.
Re: Memoirs of a Poker Bot Developer
#3An interesting juxtaposition against the series being written at Coding the Wheel.
Both are very clear about the difficulties involved - my suspicion is they push the "eating glass" type analogies primarily so that they don't appear to be encouraging further development. After all, the challenges involved appear to be what motivates them (and many Hackers) in the first place.
Re: Memoirs of a Poker Bot Developer
#4Once you’ve agreed on a time period and a way to count the results, how can you be sure that the results weren’t a product of luck and variance instead of skill?
That should only matter if your motivation for developing a poker bot was to develop a program that could demonstrate "skill" rather than one that could produce the highest profits (such as if you were a computer scientist). If you wanted to produce the highest profits, then your metric for comparing implementations would be net profit over the long run.
It is okay to come up with some set of metrics to attempt to measure "skill" in the short term while developing your algorithm, perhaps, but that's when you're in "computer scientist" mode. Ultimately skill is irrelevant if your goal is to make a profit over time, and if it were not, I suspect you would not be working on such a project in the first place.
Re: Memoirs of a Poker Bot Developer
#5Everything casino related should be considered spam, unless there is absolutely no mention of a real casino website. They are masters of deception and even if the post is tech related it should be watched closely. I know them for I've been inside the beast.
How you managed to amass 500+ karma points, I'll never know. I routinely see your comments voted down into oblivion. Kudos for persistence, I guess.
Re: Memoirs of a Poker Bot Developer
#6Once you’ve agreed on a time period and a way to count the results, how can you be sure that the results weren’t a product of luck and variance instead of skill? That should only matter if your motivation for developing a poker bot was to develop a program that could demonstrate "skill" rather than one that could produce the highest profits (such as if you were a computer scientist). If you wanted to produce the high…
Net profit is a factor of many things that have nothing to do with the bot. How good of a system you have for getting new accounts/ip addresses, how well you can funnel money from one dummy account back to you, how well you avoid detection, etc.
Still, you can easily determine the mathematical certainty for a given win rate and sample size.
Re: Memoirs of a Poker Bot Developer
#7Once you’ve agreed on a time period and a way to count the results, how can you be sure that the results weren’t a product of luck and variance instead of skill? That should only matter if your motivation for developing a poker bot was to develop a program that could demonstrate "skill" rather than one that could produce the highest profits (such as if you were a computer scientist). If you wanted to produce the high…
Net profit is a factor of many things that have nothing to do with the bot. How good of a system you have for getting new accounts/ip addresses, how well you can funnel money from one dummy account back to you, how well you avoid detection, etc. Still, you can easily determine the mathematical certainty for a given win rate and sample size.
Matt you hit the nail on the head.
People like to think that if you can build a winning bot you can easily run it on a dozen computers and rake in millions of dollars. In reality, the logistics of running such an operation are prohibitively difficult--at least if you want to stay within the bounds of the law.
Re: Memoirs of a Poker Bot Developer
#8Earlier quoted context omitted.
Net profit is a factor of many things that have nothing to do with the bot. How good of a system you have for getting new accounts/ip addresses, how well you can funnel money from one dummy account back to you, how well you avoid detection, etc. Still, you can easily determine the mathematical certainty for a given win rate and sample size.
Matt you hit the nail on the head. People like to think that if you can build a winning bot you can easily run it on a dozen computers and rake in millions of dollars. In reality, the logistics of running such an operation are prohibitively difficult--at least if you want to stay within the bounds of the law.
are you planning on writing the next in the series soon? pretty interesting.
Re: Memoirs of a Poker Bot Developer
#9Once you’ve agreed on a time period and a way to count the results, how can you be sure that the results weren’t a product of luck and variance instead of skill? That should only matter if your motivation for developing a poker bot was to develop a program that could demonstrate "skill" rather than one that could produce the highest profits (such as if you were a computer scientist). If you wanted to produce the high…
Net profit is a factor of many things that have nothing to do with the bot. How good of a system you have for getting new accounts/ip addresses, how well you can funnel money from one dummy account back to you, how well you avoid detection, etc. Still, you can easily determine the mathematical certainty for a given win rate and sample size.
Net profit is a factor of many things that have nothing to do with the bot. How good of a system you have for getting new accounts/ip addresses, how well you can funnel money from one dummy account back to you, how well you avoid detection, etc.
Those are ancillary factors that have an effect on net profit. They are not metrics. Taking the story from the post, if my "friends and family" were asking me about the "success" of a poker bot, I'd still point to net profit as the best metric with which to define success (unless you're doing it for CS/math reasons).
It's a bit like if I'm a professional, regular poker player and family members ask me how I'm doing. I'd tell them how much money I've won (or lost), not the intricate details of how I play.
Re: Memoirs of a Poker Bot Developer
#10Earlier quoted context omitted.
Net profit is a factor of many things that have nothing to do with the bot. How good of a system you have for getting new accounts/ip addresses, how well you can funnel money from one dummy account back to you, how well you avoid detection, etc. Still, you can easily determine the mathematical certainty for a given win rate and sample size.
Matt you hit the nail on the head. People like to think that if you can build a winning bot you can easily run it on a dozen computers and rake in millions of dollars. In reality, the logistics of running such an operation are prohibitively difficult--at least if you want to stay within the bounds of the law.
Yeah, I've gone through much of the rest of the process before between bonus abusing casinos, running a rakeback site, and my own poker play.
Once upon a time Party Poker offered a guaranteed 10% APR on all balances up to $10k, paid out monthly given a certain relatively small level of pay. I imagine their multiple account detection process back then was relatively crude compared to what Stars has now, but it caused me some pain. And I know Full Tilt is very good at it now.