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AVC: Tough Times Ahead for the Web (...or not?)

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Re: AVC: Tough Times Ahead for the Web (...or not?)

#2

Post by garbowza »

I think we're all trained to expect a downturn after a sustained run of good times. It does not appear that tech will trigger the downturn (if there will be one) this time, but the question is how much will tech be affected?

Personally I believe that the solid business models will continue to prevail since internet traffic will continue to increase. However, marginal ideas and products will have more trouble finding the quick cash they are looking for.

Re: AVC: Tough Times Ahead for the Web (...or not?)

#3

Post by bharath »

Startups that make what people really want are likelier to survive the downturn when it does come. For example, Peter Lynch has said that downturns are a good time to invest in companies that make breakfast cereal -- people don't ever stop buying that. A case in point are the Indian outsourcing companies that saw their stock skyrocket during the last recession -- at a time when American companies were using them as a means to cut costs.

Re: AVC: Tough Times Ahead for the Web (...or not?)

#4

Post by colortone »

garbowza wrote: post #2

I think we're all trained to expect a downturn after a sustained run of good times. It does not appear that tech will trigger the downturn (if there will be one) this time, but the question is how much will tech be affected? Personally I believe that the solid business models will continue to prevail since internet traffic will continue to increase. However, marginal ideas and products will have more trouble finding…

I agree in total with this take...

The Net isn't going to stop growing in traffic or utility, that's for sure.

My fear is that the glut of mediocrity will put a chilling effect on this "sector" from an investment standpoint.

Based on my recent experience, it's seems like it would be easy to spook Angel investors, and I don't think that would be good for seed-stage NetCo' [even the good ones].

Re: AVC: Tough Times Ahead for the Web (...or not?)

#5

Post by joshwa »

This ties into a question I was going to ask as a discussion item... how far "ahead of the curve" is best for startups, in terms of maximizing chances of success?

Obviously one can be too far ahead of the curve, and the market, and run out of cash before you can get profitable, but neither do you want to be a me-too player in a crowded market where differentiation is difficult (and the best-funded player wins).

Where's the sweet spot?

Re: AVC: Tough Times Ahead for the Web (...or not?)

#6

Post by nostrademons »

bharath wrote: post #3

Startups that make what people really want are likelier to survive the downturn when it does come. For example, Peter Lynch has said that downturns are a good time to invest in companies that make breakfast cereal -- people don't ever stop buying that. A case in point are the Indian outsourcing companies that saw their stock skyrocket during the last recession -- at a time when American companies were using them as a…

The last downturn also saw some companies flourish that made stuff nobody would think of as "really wanting", though. HotOrNot, LiveJournal, FuckedCompany, Blogger, Del.icio.us.

I think the biggest predictor of success during a bust tends to be low costs. Recessions force honesty on business people: you are economically viable if you contribute more value (actual value, not predicted value) than you consume in resources. It's relatively easy for one guy working out of his home to produce more value than he consumes. If his product is at all useful, he's basically got it covered. It's relatively difficult for a startup with $20M of financing to produce more than it consumes, because his product has to be roughly 200 times more useful than the solo entrepreneur.

Re: AVC: Tough Times Ahead for the Web (...or not?)

#7

Post by dpapathanasiou »

colortone wrote: post #4
garbowza wrote: post #2

I think we're all trained to expect a downturn after a sustained run of good times. It does not appear that tech will trigger the downturn (if there will be one) this time, but the question is how much will tech be affected? Personally I believe that the solid business models will continue to prevail since internet traffic will continue to increase. However, marginal ideas and products will have more trouble finding…

I agree in total with this take... The Net isn't going to stop growing in traffic or utility, that's for sure. My fear is that the glut of mediocrity will put a chilling effect on this "sector" from an investment standpoint. Based on my recent experience, it's seems like it would be easy to spook Angel investors, and I don't think that would be good for seed-stage NetCo' [even the good ones].

seems like it would be easy to spook Angel investors

My experience is the opposite: since angels use their own money, they answer to no one and can stick with you (assuming they continue to believe in your vision), even as the environment changes.

OTOH, VC firms (or any other organization with limited partners) are subject to more oversight and 3rd party scrutiny, and are much more likely to follow the herd.

There are, of course, exceptions in both cases.

Re: AVC: Tough Times Ahead for the Web (...or not?)

#8

Post by sabat »

It's BS like this that helps actually create a downturn. Repeat the idea enough in the media, and people will naturally begin acting like it's a reality -- making it a reality.

The real cause? Our need to punish ourselves for doing well. "We deserve a good downturn right about now. Things have been too good. We need to feel some solid pain to keep ourselves in check."

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