AI productivity gains are closer to 10% than 10x
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Re: AI productivity gains are closer to 10% than 10x
#2AI has the potential to be extremely powerful but it is also very new. People and organisations are just at the beginning of the learning process.
Re: AI productivity gains are closer to 10% than 10x
#310% seems low. I think 1.5-3x is more like it without sacrificing quality. You can easily go 10x if you don’t care about the results too much.
Re: AI productivity gains are closer to 10% than 10x
#4AI has the potential to be extremely powerful but it is also very new. People and organisations are just at the beginning of the learning process.
Sure but the hype has been about the 10x productivity increases and how less employees are needed. Also all the AGI/singularity stuff being just around the corner, not simply AI potentially making employees a lot more productive.
Re: AI productivity gains are closer to 10% than 10x
#510% seems low. I think 1.5-3x is more like it without sacrificing quality. You can easily go 10x if you don’t care about the results too much.
There are probably larger gains in some areas like testing and coding. other areas, less so as they depend on messy data. I can tell you that only some areas of project management benefit from AI. the rest is more of a people problem.
Re: AI productivity gains are closer to 10% than 10x
#6This is very similar to how you can double the employees in a company and only get marginal improvement in productivity.
If that’s true, AI gives the same gains doubling labour. No?
Re: AI productivity gains are closer to 10% than 10x
#710% seems low. I think 1.5-3x is more like it without sacrificing quality. You can easily go 10x if you don’t care about the results too much.
> You can easily go 10x if you don’t care about the results too much.
People are also much faster when they dont care about quality at all.
Re: AI productivity gains are closer to 10% than 10x
#8My unsolicited thoughts:
* AI will drive additional features as development accelerates
* There will be a window where fast adopting AI companies can deliver features faster than peers
* Those fast adopting AI companies will be able to garner additional revenue
* Gap closes as AI benefits slow in their impact to feature development and slower adopting companies catch up
* Companies that were faster adopters can no longer charge more for additional revenue without giving up market share to now caught-up competitors
* New normal is that companies are in a bind - they have to pay for tokens/AI aided development else they lose speed and therefore market share - but the paying is now without additional revenue and exists as a tax
Assumptions:
* No AGI
* LLMs have bounded impact on features
* Timeframe is long enough that companies that trail in AI won't be starved out
Re: AI productivity gains are closer to 10% than 10x
#910% is still huge.
Re: AI productivity gains are closer to 10% than 10x
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