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AI Bubble vs. Dot Com Crash. History Is Repeating

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Re: AI Bubble vs. Dot Com Crash. History Is Repeating

#4

Post by rogerkirkness »

Insanity wrote: post #2

At least the dot com crash left us with m useful infrastructure. And it didn’t price regular customer out of the computer market. Going to have to sell a kidney to build a new gaming PC the next few years.

Around 2002 there was way more internet bandwidth and infrastructure available than utilized, eventually (not immediately) leading to business models like Netflix current one. I do think a lot about what the AI analogy will be.

Re: AI Bubble vs. Dot Com Crash. History Is Repeating

#7

Post by jdw64 »

Everyone feels it's a bubble, but the key question is when it will burst. People keep pointing this out in so many places, from Closed loops to everything else. I wish someone would just predict when that moment will come

I've seen so many of these articles that I'm actually looking forward to a YouTube video or article that talks about a techno-feudal future, where API tenant farmers become the scenario if AI companies succeed. Sometimes I just want to see something new.

Re: AI Bubble vs. Dot Com Crash. History Is Repeating

#8

Post by rmunn »

Insanity wrote: post #2

At least the dot com crash left us with m useful infrastructure. And it didn’t price regular customer out of the computer market. Going to have to sell a kidney to build a new gaming PC the next few years.

If you can wait until one of the major companies goes bankrupt (assuming that that happens, of course) before buying a new PC, then it should be a lot cheaper than today. Because when a company goes bankrupt, a lot (or possibly all depending on how bankrupt they are) the hardware they bought will be sold off to pay their debts, meaning a LOT of now-scare RAM will go back on the market, bringing prices back down as supply suddenly catches up with demand.

It's not guaranteed, and the pent-up demand for RAM from all the other people who had been holding off on buying new hardware will mean that supply won't exceed demand for quite some time. But that's my strategy: wait for one of the companies who are currently outspending their resources to go bankrupt, then buy hardware once the supply is no longer quite so ridiculously tight as it is now.

Re: AI Bubble vs. Dot Com Crash. History Is Repeating

#9

Post by rmunn »

jdw64 wrote: post #7

Everyone feels it's a bubble, but the key question is when it will burst. People keep pointing this out in so many places, from Closed loops to everything else. I wish someone would just predict when that moment will come I've seen so many of these articles that I'm actually looking forward to a YouTube video or article that talks about a techno-feudal future, where API tenant farmers become the scenario if AI compan…

I'm not going to predict the moment, because I thought the dotcom bubble would pop back in 1999. I could see how overvalued things were, what I couldn't predict was how long the market would remain irrational.
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