The AI Superforecasters Are Here
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The AI Superforecasters Are Here
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Re: The AI Superforecasters Are Here
#2If the forecasting models were so good that people were actually consistently beating prediction markets, they wouldn't be starting startups to be selling it.
And even if it is good enough, once you're shelling out thousands of dollars a year in research costs, does that give you any remaining alpha?
Re: The AI Superforecasters Are Here
#3If the forecasting models were so good that people were actually consistently beating prediction markets, they wouldn't be starting startups to be selling it. And even if it is good enough, once you're shelling out thousands of dollars a year in research costs, does that give you any remaining alpha?
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Re: The AI Superforecasters Are Here
#4This new forecasting industry is pushed by very dirty people.
Re: The AI Superforecasters Are Here
#5If the forecasting models were so good that people were actually consistently beating prediction markets, they wouldn't be starting startups to be selling it. And even if it is good enough, once you're shelling out thousands of dollars a year in research costs, does that give you any remaining alpha?
You got it (I was going to say "nailed it" but that's becoming an LLM marker).
This is exactly what I feel about a lot of the paid investment advice out there. Compounding can make any decent alpha worth a ton, to the point that these people would be investment bankers and not advisors if they knew what they were talking about.
Re: The AI Superforecasters Are Here
#6If the forecasting models were so good that people were actually consistently beating prediction markets, they wouldn't be starting startups to be selling it. And even if it is good enough, once you're shelling out thousands of dollars a year in research costs, does that give you any remaining alpha?
You got it (I was going to say "nailed it" but that's becoming an LLM marker). This is exactly what I feel about a lot of the paid investment advice out there. Compounding can make any decent alpha worth a ton, to the point that these people would be investment bankers and not advisors if they knew what they were talking about.
Same with get rich quick books.
Re: The AI Superforecasters Are Here
#7For Pete’s sake lets outlaw prediction markets already instead of hyping them in crappy greed-posts like this one
I am embarrassed this “rationalist, I’m so much smarter than you, so I know better” asshole Scott Alexander hasn't been skewered yet for promotion of gambling (prediction markets) that people like Trumps son are making millions of on
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2026/may/...
Re: The AI Superforecasters Are Here
#8I kinda like Taleb’s take on forecasters; get another job.
Re: The AI Superforecasters Are Here
#9Tell me you don't understand Taleb without telling me you don't understand Taleb.
Re: The AI Superforecasters Are Here
#10If the forecasting models were so good that people were actually consistently beating prediction markets, they wouldn't be starting startups to be selling it. And even if it is good enough, once you're shelling out thousands of dollars a year in research costs, does that give you any remaining alpha?
Yes, but have you considered the performance of a few lucky outliers? Catch 'em fast before they regress to the mean!