How long until AI automates all cognitive labor?
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How long until AI automates all cognitive labor?
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Re: How long until AI automates all cognitive labor?
#2> The overlapping AGI definition I use here is "Most purely cognitive labor is automatable at better quality, speed, and cost than humans". For some of these researchers, saying they use this definitions is a bit of a stretch, but I included everyone who I judged as close enough to be informative.
Seems "AGI" is on the same level as "art" or "love" in that everyone knows what we're talking about but no one can nail down unanimously what it is.
Re: How long until AI automates all cognitive labor?
#3> The overlapping AGI definition I use here is "Most purely cognitive labor is automatable at better quality, speed, and cost than humans". For some of these researchers, saying they use this definitions is a bit of a stretch, but I included everyone who I judged as close enough to be informative. Seems "AGI" is on the same level as "art" or "love" in that everyone knows what we're talking about but no one can nail d…
I have no idea why this "AGI is not even well defined" meme gained so much traction recently.
AGI is something that can do everything better than humans. Write a novel, seduce someone, prove a theorem, fix a pipe, whatever. And it's clear right now we don't have it.
Re: How long until AI automates all cognitive labor?
#4That is an absolutely beautiful infographic and should become the standard for time series change!
Re: How long until AI automates all cognitive labor?
#5It's a specific subtype of Gell-Mann Amnesia effect. They "know" AI cant do their own jobs, but it seems pretty good at summarizing what others do without understanding the nuance. It seems to really apply to the AI Lab CEOs who appear "shocked" everyone isn't simply replaced with LLMs by now so the timelines get kicked.
Re: How long until AI automates all cognitive labor?
#6> The overlapping AGI definition I use here is "Most purely cognitive labor is automatable at better quality, speed, and cost than humans". For some of these researchers, saying they use this definitions is a bit of a stretch, but I included everyone who I judged as close enough to be informative. Seems "AGI" is on the same level as "art" or "love" in that everyone knows what we're talking about but no one can nail d…
So it's not a human intelligence. The transformer works very differently. We're trying to emulate human intelligence on a very different architecture.
Although, for the most part, what we actually seem to care about is that the job gets done. It's just that all the training data we have is "guy shaped" (linear), not transformer shaped. We haven't actually figured out how to train a transformer yet.
Re: How long until AI automates all cognitive labor?
#7> The overlapping AGI definition I use here is "Most purely cognitive labor is automatable at better quality, speed, and cost than humans". For some of these researchers, saying they use this definitions is a bit of a stretch, but I included everyone who I judged as close enough to be informative. Seems "AGI" is on the same level as "art" or "love" in that everyone knows what we're talking about but no one can nail d…
I have no idea why this "AGI is not even well defined" meme gained so much traction recently. AGI is something that can do everything better than humans. Write a novel, seduce someone, prove a theorem, fix a pipe, whatever. And it's clear right now we don't have it.
You make a good point that not having it is easy to spot. But what precisely would flip the switch?
Seducing someone for example, how often would that have to work? On all people? Maybe that was just thrown out as an example but it points to how subjective these goal posts are.
Re: How long until AI automates all cognitive labor?
#8> The overlapping AGI definition I use here is "Most purely cognitive labor is automatable at better quality, speed, and cost than humans". For some of these researchers, saying they use this definitions is a bit of a stretch, but I included everyone who I judged as close enough to be informative. Seems "AGI" is on the same level as "art" or "love" in that everyone knows what we're talking about but no one can nail d…
I have no idea why this "AGI is not even well defined" meme gained so much traction recently. AGI is something that can do everything better than humans. Write a novel, seduce someone, prove a theorem, fix a pipe, whatever. And it's clear right now we don't have it.
Is seducing someone a cognitive task?
In a way I guess it is but often there are a lot of meatspace factors at play as well.
Maybe a bit off topic but your comment made me wonder.
I think generally we don’t have a good definition of what intelligence is.
Re: How long until AI automates all cognitive labor?
#9> The overlapping AGI definition I use here is "Most purely cognitive labor is automatable at better quality, speed, and cost than humans". For some of these researchers, saying they use this definitions is a bit of a stretch, but I included everyone who I judged as close enough to be informative. Seems "AGI" is on the same level as "art" or "love" in that everyone knows what we're talking about but no one can nail d…
I have no idea why this "AGI is not even well defined" meme gained so much traction recently. AGI is something that can do everything better than humans. Write a novel, seduce someone, prove a theorem, fix a pipe, whatever. And it's clear right now we don't have it.
Well, the 2nd one requires a human form (I think? Or at least video), and the 3rd one requires robotics.
By the 3rd example we won't have AGI until we have plumber-level robotics, and by the 2nd example we won't have AGI until the plumber is really hot.
Re: How long until AI automates all cognitive labor?
#10> The overlapping AGI definition I use here is "Most purely cognitive labor is automatable at better quality, speed, and cost than humans". For some of these researchers, saying they use this definitions is a bit of a stretch, but I included everyone who I judged as close enough to be informative. Seems "AGI" is on the same level as "art" or "love" in that everyone knows what we're talking about but no one can nail d…
I have no idea why this "AGI is not even well defined" meme gained so much traction recently. AGI is something that can do everything better than humans. Write a novel, seduce someone, prove a theorem, fix a pipe, whatever. And it's clear right now we don't have it.
Given your definition what's the difference between AGI and superintelligence?
AGI should at least match, not surpass humans in every cognitive task.