Why Almost Everyone Loses–Except a Few Sharks–On Prediction Markets
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Re: Why Almost Everyone Loses–Except a Few Sharks–On Prediction Markets
#2Re: Why Almost Everyone Loses–Except a Few Sharks–On Prediction Markets
#3> "John Pederson outside the homeless shelter in Detroit where he has been living since losing money on Kalshi...Pederson lost $41,000 on a mention-market bet related to hip-hop artist A$AP Rocky in January"
Re: Why Almost Everyone Loses–Except a Few Sharks–On Prediction Markets
#4> "John Pederson outside the homeless shelter in Detroit where he has been living since losing money on Kalshi...Pederson lost $41,000 on a mention-market bet related to hip-hop artist A$AP Rocky in January"
> At first, it worked. Pederson turned about $2,000 into close to $8,000 by betting on daily snowfall totals in Detroit
Re: Why Almost Everyone Loses–Except a Few Sharks–On Prediction Markets
#5> On Kalshi, too, losers vastly outnumber winners. Spokeswoman Elisabeth Diana said there are 2.9 unprofitable users for each profitable one based on data from the past month
So 25% of users are profitable? That's vastly more than on financial sites - stocks/futures/forex/options trading where only 5% of bettors are profitable.
Re: Why Almost Everyone Loses–Except a Few Sharks–On Prediction Markets
#6On a related note:
"Someone allegedly used a hairdryer to rig Polymarket weather bets" https://www.engadget.com/big-tech/someone-allegedly-used-a-h...
Re: Why Almost Everyone Loses–Except a Few Sharks–On Prediction Markets
#7> On Kalshi, too, losers vastly outnumber winners. Spokeswoman Elisabeth Diana said there are 2.9 unprofitable users for each profitable one based on data from the past month So 25% of users are profitable? That's vastly more than on financial sites - stocks/futures/forex/options trading where only 5% of bettors are profitable.
Uhm, I'd like to introduce you to our Lord and Savior index funds. Simply buy vtsax and forget for 30 years.
Re: Why Almost Everyone Loses–Except a Few Sharks–On Prediction Markets
#8> On Kalshi, too, losers vastly outnumber winners. Spokeswoman Elisabeth Diana said there are 2.9 unprofitable users for each profitable one based on data from the past month So 25% of users are profitable? That's vastly more than on financial sites - stocks/futures/forex/options trading where only 5% of bettors are profitable.
All those other markets are vastly bigger in scale and trade in trillions on a daily basis so it's an irrelevant comparison. Also the expectation is that the majority of that 25% are insiders. So you're comparing catching fish in a barrel where 25% of the participants hooked the fish prior to you getting a turn vs fishing in the open ocean (so 5% is pretty good with additional voting rights/tax benefits).
Re: Why Almost Everyone Loses–Except a Few Sharks–On Prediction Markets
#9On a related note: "Someone allegedly used a hairdryer to rig Polymarket weather bets" https://www.engadget.com/big-tech/someone-allegedly-used-a-h...
Re: Why Almost Everyone Loses–Except a Few Sharks–On Prediction Markets
#10> On Kalshi, too, losers vastly outnumber winners. Spokeswoman Elisabeth Diana said there are 2.9 unprofitable users for each profitable one based on data from the past month So 25% of users are profitable? That's vastly more than on financial sites - stocks/futures/forex/options trading where only 5% of bettors are profitable.
> vastly more than on financial sites - stocks/futures/forex/options trading where only 5% of bettors are profitable
Source? I'm not doubting that there are products and forums where 95% of traders lose money. But that's far from representative for most financial-market participants.