Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts
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Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts
#2Highly skeptical of using a betting platform as an indication of insider knowledge and something to base your decisions off of. People will bet, and it's a 50/50 decision between "ceasfire yes / no". People vote with their gut.
Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts
#3For most people, that's a plus of course.
Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts
#4Highly skeptical of using a betting platform as an indication of insider knowledge and something to base your decisions off of. People will bet, and it's a 50/50 decision between "ceasfire yes / no". People vote with their gut.
A few major actors in predictions markets
(1) Recreational or addicted gamblers
(2) Hedging your investments or exposure to an event by betting on it as insurance
(3) Insiders
(4) Information arbitrage (researchers, etc)
Three (3) and Four (4) are probably the most important for conveying useful information in pricing. I see it as a good, not bad thing, they are involved.
Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts
#5I would be interested to know who shorted oil in the hours before the purported negotiations post on Truth Social, and who then went long on it in shortly after the price readjusted and before the Iranians denied these negotiations.
Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts
#6Highly skeptical of using a betting platform as an indication of insider knowledge and something to base your decisions off of. People will bet, and it's a 50/50 decision between "ceasfire yes / no". People vote with their gut.
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Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts
#7Highly skeptical of using a betting platform as an indication of insider knowledge and something to base your decisions off of. People will bet, and it's a 50/50 decision between "ceasfire yes / no". People vote with their gut.
A few major actors in predictions markets (1) Recreational or addicted gamblers (2) Hedging your investments or exposure to an event by betting on it as insurance (3) Insiders (4) Information arbitrage (researchers, etc) Three (3) and Four (4) are probably the most important for conveying useful information in pricing. I see it as a good, not bad thing, they are involved.
mh. Guess my view of betting is too naive. I wouldn't have expected anything beyond (1).
With my usual addictive behaviour, I think it's prob best I stay away from that though.. :)
Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts
#8It’s likely a misdirection, it’s hard to say what might happen. It might not even be five days wait.
Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts
#9Highly skeptical of using a betting platform as an indication of insider knowledge and something to base your decisions off of. People will bet, and it's a 50/50 decision between "ceasfire yes / no". People vote with their gut.
A few major actors in predictions markets (1) Recreational or addicted gamblers (2) Hedging your investments or exposure to an event by betting on it as insurance (3) Insiders (4) Information arbitrage (researchers, etc) Three (3) and Four (4) are probably the most important for conveying useful information in pricing. I see it as a good, not bad thing, they are involved.
There could also be some degree of "(5) bandwagon effect" players, who pump money into an outcome specifically to get people talking about its possibility, thereby increasing its probability of coming into fruition.
Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts
#10Highly skeptical of using a betting platform as an indication of insider knowledge and something to base your decisions off of. People will bet, and it's a 50/50 decision between "ceasfire yes / no". People vote with their gut.
I would be too - if we didn't have prior evidence of massive insider trading on prediction markets.