War prediction markets are a national-security threat
theatlantic.com
War prediction markets are a national-security threat
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Re: War prediction markets are a national-security threat
#2These are scraps, so far. Now, what could you do if you had access to both markets and the Executive? About 4 billions, it would seem.
Re: War prediction markets are a national-security threat
#3Placing a bet based on insider national security information should be regarded as leaking. But the markets aren't the problem here.
Re: War prediction markets are a national-security threat
#4[deleted]
Re: War prediction markets are a national-security threat
#5Isnt this silly when you can calculate the chance of war in Iran by oil futures instead. Prediction markets are just explicit markers of information that is already being traded on in 100 different ways.
Re: War prediction markets are a national-security threat
#6Isnt this silly when you can calculate the chance of war in Iran by oil futures instead. Prediction markets are just explicit markers of information that is already being traded on in 100 different ways.
Yeah but less direct incentive than "If my friends (and I) bet money on X, and I do X, they (and I) make money."
Re: War prediction markets are a national-security threat
#7Isnt this silly when you can calculate the chance of war in Iran by oil futures instead. Prediction markets are just explicit markers of information that is already being traded on in 100 different ways.
The idea is not economic hedging but gambling and corruption
Re: War prediction markets are a national-security threat
#8Placing a bet based on insider national security information should be regarded as leaking. But the markets aren't the problem here.
Well markets give a huge financial incentive for it. Before you had to get paid a bribe for an intelligence agent. Now you can just "legitimately" bet on a market. It's a LOT easier and more spread out, I imagine.
Re: War prediction markets are a national-security threat
#9Isnt this silly when you can calculate the chance of war in Iran by oil futures instead. Prediction markets are just explicit markers of information that is already being traded on in 100 different ways.
Yeah we should ban derivatives too.
Re: War prediction markets are a national-security threat
#10Related: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47211476 - “Allegations of insider trading over prediction-market bets tied to Iran conflict” (morningstar.com)
97 points | 5 days ago | 55 comments
Also from The Atlantic about prediction markets: https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/2026/03/central-lie-p... - “A Technology for a Low-Trust Society”