Warm Oceans Turned a 3-Inch Forecast into a Record NYC Blizzard
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Warm Oceans Turned a 3-Inch Forecast into a Record NYC Blizzard
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Re: Warm Oceans Turned a 3-Inch Forecast into a Record NYC Blizzard
#2Beautiful new york
Re: Warm Oceans Turned a 3-Inch Forecast into a Record NYC Blizzard
#3They don't know what's going to happen tomorrow but they know what's going to happen in 30 years.
Re: Warm Oceans Turned a 3-Inch Forecast into a Record NYC Blizzard
#4They don't know what's going to happen tomorrow but they know what's going to happen in 30 years.
Are you really equating daily weather predictions with meteorological science? That's like saying "they don't know what the next 3 coin flips are going to be but they know half of the next 10,000 will be tails"
Re: Warm Oceans Turned a 3-Inch Forecast into a Record NYC Blizzard
#5They don't know what's going to happen tomorrow but they know what's going to happen in 30 years.
Are you really equating daily weather predictions with meteorological science? That's like saying "they don't know what the next 3 coin flips are going to be but they know half of the next 10,000 will be tails"
Unfortunately weather predictions aren’t as simple as a coin flip. But I’m sure meteorologists would manage to fuck up coin flips too.
Re: Warm Oceans Turned a 3-Inch Forecast into a Record NYC Blizzard
#6Earlier quoted context omitted.
Are you really equating daily weather predictions with meteorological science? That's like saying "they don't know what the next 3 coin flips are going to be but they know half of the next 10,000 will be tails"
Unfortunately weather predictions aren’t as simple as a coin flip. But I’m sure meteorologists would manage to fuck up coin flips too.
and humans haven't figured out anything more complex than a coin flip...
Re: Warm Oceans Turned a 3-Inch Forecast into a Record NYC Blizzard
#7They don't know what's going to happen tomorrow but they know what's going to happen in 30 years.
Yes, that's essentially correct. Unintuitive if you don't understand statistics, but correct.
Re: Warm Oceans Turned a 3-Inch Forecast into a Record NYC Blizzard
#8They don't know what's going to happen tomorrow but they know what's going to happen in 30 years.
Are you really equating daily weather predictions with meteorological science? That's like saying "they don't know what the next 3 coin flips are going to be but they know half of the next 10,000 will be tails"
That's not exactly true, it seems. Forecasts become less accurate the further out you go, unlike coin flips.
Weather forecasts are generally accurate about 90% of the time for a five-day forecast and around 80% for a seven-day forecast. Forecasts beyond ten days are only correct about half the time.
Re: Warm Oceans Turned a 3-Inch Forecast into a Record NYC Blizzard
#9They don't know what's going to happen tomorrow but they know what's going to happen in 30 years.
Do you really not understand that this actually makes a lot of sense?
Re: Warm Oceans Turned a 3-Inch Forecast into a Record NYC Blizzard
#10They don't know what's going to happen tomorrow but they know what's going to happen in 30 years.
Are you really equating daily weather predictions with meteorological science? That's like saying "they don't know what the next 3 coin flips are going to be but they know half of the next 10,000 will be tails"
You can’t predict a coin flip because it is random. However, we have an accurate understanding of the random process producing coin flips and therefore, we can make accurate predictions about large quantities of flips.
Weather may or may not be random. It could be entirely deterministic for all we know. However, we lack the ability to fully model all the factors that contribute to weather and therefore our predictions are inaccurate.
Now let’s consider long term climate predications. Do you think these predictions are more like coin flips, where we have an extremely accurate model of the process, or more like weather, where unknown unknowns have outsized impact on accuracy?
That’s not to say climate change isn’t real, but your analogy doesn’t make sense.