Carl Sagan's Baloney Detection Kit: Tools for Thinking Critically (2025)
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Re: Carl Sagan's Baloney Detection Kit: Tools for Thinking Critically (2025)
#2Original Title:
Carl Sagan’s Baloney Detection Kit: Tools for Thinking Critically & Knowing Pseudoscience When You See It
Re: Carl Sagan's Baloney Detection Kit: Tools for Thinking Critically (2025)
#3Acclaimed science author Carl Sagan illustrated this challenge with his “dragon in the garage” analogy. If someone claims to have a dragon that is invisible, silent, intangible, and undetectable by any means, there is no practical difference between the dragon’s existence and non-existence. Similarly, without verifiable evidence, the existence of an immortal soul remains unproven.
https://www.rxjourney.net/the-possibility-of-life-after-deat...
Re: Carl Sagan's Baloney Detection Kit: Tools for Thinking Critically (2025)
#4Acclaimed science author Carl Sagan illustrated this challenge with his “dragon in the garage” analogy. If someone claims to have a dragon that is invisible, silent, intangible, and undetectable by any means, there is no practical difference between the dragon’s existence and non-existence. Similarly, without verifiable evidence, the existence of an immortal soul remains unproven. https://www.rxjourney.net/the-possib…
>If someone claims to have a dragon that is invisible, silent, intangible, and undetectable by any means, there is no practical difference between the dragon’s existence and non-existence.
“Everyone knows that dragons don’t exist. But while this simplistic formulation may satisfy the layman, it does not suffice for the scientific mind. The School of Higher Neantical Nillity is in fact wholly unconcerned with what does exist. Indeed, the banality of existence has been so amply demonstrated, there is no need for us to discuss it any further here. The brilliant Cerebron, attacking the problem analytically, discovered three distinct kinds of dragon: the mythical, the chimerical, and the purely hypothetical. They were all, one might say, nonexistent, but each non-existed in an entirely different way.” ― Stanisław Lem, The Cyberiad
Re: Carl Sagan's Baloney Detection Kit: Tools for Thinking Critically (2025)
#5Acclaimed science author Carl Sagan illustrated this challenge with his “dragon in the garage” analogy. If someone claims to have a dragon that is invisible, silent, intangible, and undetectable by any means, there is no practical difference between the dragon’s existence and non-existence. Similarly, without verifiable evidence, the existence of an immortal soul remains unproven. https://www.rxjourney.net/the-possib…
>If someone claims to have a dragon that is invisible, silent, intangible, and undetectable by any means, there is no practical difference between the dragon’s existence and non-existence. “Everyone knows that dragons don’t exist. But while this simplistic formulation may satisfy the layman, it does not suffice for the scientific mind. The School of Higher Neantical Nillity is in fact wholly unconcerned with what doe…
Re: Carl Sagan's Baloney Detection Kit: Tools for Thinking Critically (2025)
#6Acclaimed science author Carl Sagan illustrated this challenge with his “dragon in the garage” analogy. If someone claims to have a dragon that is invisible, silent, intangible, and undetectable by any means, there is no practical difference between the dragon’s existence and non-existence. Similarly, without verifiable evidence, the existence of an immortal soul remains unproven. https://www.rxjourney.net/the-possib…
The dragon in the room is the hidden qualifier for "undetectable by any means" is "that is currently known to humanity".
That makes Carl Sagan's claim some what Balonish. Not sure why the smart Sagan fell for it.
Re: Carl Sagan's Baloney Detection Kit: Tools for Thinking Critically (2025)
#7Acclaimed science author Carl Sagan illustrated this challenge with his “dragon in the garage” analogy. If someone claims to have a dragon that is invisible, silent, intangible, and undetectable by any means, there is no practical difference between the dragon’s existence and non-existence. Similarly, without verifiable evidence, the existence of an immortal soul remains unproven. https://www.rxjourney.net/the-possib…
The dragon in the room is the hidden qualifier for "undetectable by any means" is "that is currently known to humanity". That makes Carl Sagan's claim some what Balonish. Not sure why the smart Sagan fell for it.
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Re: Carl Sagan's Baloney Detection Kit: Tools for Thinking Critically (2025)
#8Earlier quoted context omitted.
The dragon in the room is the hidden qualifier for "undetectable by any means" is "that is currently known to humanity". That makes Carl Sagan's claim some what Balonish. Not sure why the smart Sagan fell for it.
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>Not sure why this comment got downvoted, but after all this is HN: very pro-tech while at the same time anti-science. Computers do everything so knowledge doesn't matter.
As Dr. Sagan (quite correctly) pointed out:
Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.
1. Sagan's example was a metaphor for an unfalsifiable hypothesis;
2. Dragons (okay, kimodo dragons do, but that's orthogonal to the discussion) don't actually exist;
3. Even if dragons with the properties posited by Sagan actually do exist, Evidence must be provided to confirm the "garage dragon" hypothesis or it's irrelevant. If it cannot be detected, it may as well not exist.
While it's true that "Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence," not being able to verify the non-existence of something doesn't confirm its existence.
I suggest you use the rest of the tools provided in Sagan's "Baloney Detection Kit" (helpfully linked above) to help you get the point.
I'd also point out that the guidelines[0] say:
Please don't comment about the voting on comments. It never does any good,
and it makes boring reading.
Re: Carl Sagan's Baloney Detection Kit: Tools for Thinking Critically (2025)
#9Earlier quoted context omitted.
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>Not sure why this comment got downvoted, but after all this is HN: very pro-tech while at the same time anti-science. Computers do everything so knowledge doesn't matter. As Dr. Sagan (quite correctly) pointed out: Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. Whether there's any particular method right now , next week or next year for such "detection" isn't relevant in this context for several reasons: 1. Sa…
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Re: Carl Sagan's Baloney Detection Kit: Tools for Thinking Critically (2025)
#10Acclaimed science author Carl Sagan illustrated this challenge with his “dragon in the garage” analogy. If someone claims to have a dragon that is invisible, silent, intangible, and undetectable by any means, there is no practical difference between the dragon’s existence and non-existence. Similarly, without verifiable evidence, the existence of an immortal soul remains unproven. https://www.rxjourney.net/the-possib…
>If someone claims to have a dragon that is invisible, silent, intangible, and undetectable by any means, there is no practical difference between the dragon’s existence and non-existence. “Everyone knows that dragons don’t exist. But while this simplistic formulation may satisfy the layman, it does not suffice for the scientific mind. The School of Higher Neantical Nillity is in fact wholly unconcerned with what doe…
Love that book!