Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction
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Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction
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Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction
#2It goes to nearly zero if China invades Taiwan, and that seems like it has at least a 10% chance of happening in the next year or two.
Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction
#3Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction
#4It goes to nearly zero if China invades Taiwan, and that seems like it has at least a 10% chance of happening in the next year or two.
I agree. It's funny that this is one of the cited reason for the (relative) value suppression of tsmc, but the same factors should apply to Nvidia too.
Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction
#5> One of the questions of the 2026 acx prediction contest is whether Nvidia’s stock price will close below $100 on any day in 2026.
Maybe I’m missing something, but isn’t this just a standard American put option with a strike of $100 and expiry of Dec 31st?
Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction
#6He doesn't really address his own question.
He's answering the question "How should options be priced?"
Sure, it's possible for a big crash in Nvidia just due to volatility. But in that case, the market as a whole would likely be affected.
Whether Nvidia specifically takes a big dive depends much more on whether they continue to meet growth estimates than general volatility. If they miss earnings estimates in a meaningful way the market is going to take the stock behind the shed and shoot it. If they continue to exceed estimates the stock will probably go up or at least keep its present valuation.
Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction
#7It goes to nearly zero if China invades Taiwan, and that seems like it has at least a 10% chance of happening in the next year or two.
But then again what won't? Non tech stocks?
Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction
#8How much of their turnover is financed directly or indirectly by themselves, then leveraged further by their 'customers' to collaterize further investments?
Are they already "too big to fail"? For better or worse, they are 'all in' on AI.
Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction
#9Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction
#10It goes to nearly zero if China invades Taiwan, and that seems like it has at least a 10% chance of happening in the next year or two.
But then again what won't? Non tech stocks?
Yes, lots of other companies would be affected to a greater or lesser extent (even non-tech stocks), but specifically any company that relies on manufacturing all their product in Taiwan will be affected most of all.