This is not the future

#1

Post by ericdanielski » Tue, Dec 16, 2025, 1:42 PM UTC

This is not the future
blog.mathieui.net

Re: This is not the future

#2

Post by notpachet » Tue, Dec 16, 2025, 2:08 PM UTC

"Mortality as home entertainment -- this cannot be the future!! ...Can it??"

- McCabe (Kurt Russell), Vanilla Sky

Re: This is not the future

#3

Post by gorgoiler » Tue, Dec 16, 2025, 2:11 PM UTC

I like the “wasn’t inevitable” list. The fact that two US corporations control 99% of phones is another one that feels about as comfortable as a rock in my boot and I hope this too is not inevitable, in the long run.

Imagine if the 80s and 90s had been PC vs Mac but you had to go to IBM for one or more critical pieces of software or software distribution infrastructure. The Cambrian explosion IBM-PC compatability didn’t happen overnight of course. I don’t think it will be (or ought to be) inevitable that phones remain opaque and locked down forever, but the day when freedom finally comes doesn’t really feel like it’s just around the corner.

Posted, alas for now, from my iPhone

Re: This is not the future

#4

Post by nancyminusone » Tue, Dec 16, 2025, 2:14 PM UTC

>Garbage companies using refurbished plane engines to power their data centers is not inevitable

Was wondering what the beef with this was until I realized author meant "companies that are garbage" and not "landfill operators using gas turbines to make power". The latter is something you probably would want.

Re: This is not the future

#5

Post by oblio » Tue, Dec 16, 2025, 2:15 PM UTC

After reading and watching things by quite a few historians, one of the points that sticks out is: most things in history were not inevitable. Someone had to do them and other people had to help them or at least not oppose them.

A lot of history's turning points were much closer than we think.

Re: This is not the future

#6

Post by ekianjo » Tue, Dec 16, 2025, 2:16 PM UTC

> The Apple Vision pro was not inevitable

I don't get the reason for this one being in the list. Is that an abusive product in some way?

Re: This is not the future

#7

Post by strix_varius » Tue, Dec 16, 2025, 2:17 PM UTC

gorgoiler wrote: post #3

I like the “wasn’t inevitable” list. The fact that two US corporations control 99% of phones is another one that feels about as comfortable as a rock in my boot and I hope this too is not inevitable, in the long run. Imagine if the 80s and 90s had been PC vs Mac but you had to go to IBM for one or more critical pieces of software or software distribution infrastructure. The Cambrian explosion IBM-PC compatability did…

Also imagine that basic interactions were mediated by those monopolies: you had to print your bus ticket personally with software only available on your IBM.

Re: This is not the future

#8

Post by gorgoiler » Tue, Dec 16, 2025, 2:17 PM UTC

oblio wrote: post #5

After reading and watching things by quite a few historians, one of the points that sticks out is: most things in history were not inevitable. Someone had to do them and other people had to help them or at least not oppose them. A lot of history's turning points were much closer than we think.

What are your top examples of could’ve-beens or near-misses?

Re: This is not the future

#9

Post by jofla_net » Tue, Dec 16, 2025, 2:20 PM UTC

Spouting inevitability is small-minded.

There are plenty "technology" things which have come to pass, most notably weapons, which have been developed which are not allowed to be used by someone to thier fullest due to laws, and social norms against harming others. Theese things are technology, and they would allow someone to attain wealth much more efficiently....

Parrots retort that they are regulated because society sees them as a threat.

Well, therein is the disconnect, society isn't immutable, and can come to those conclusions about other technologies tomorrow if it so chooses...

Re: This is not the future

#10

Post by gwbas1c » Tue, Dec 16, 2025, 2:21 PM UTC

gorgoiler wrote: post #3

I like the “wasn’t inevitable” list. The fact that two US corporations control 99% of phones is another one that feels about as comfortable as a rock in my boot and I hope this too is not inevitable, in the long run. Imagine if the 80s and 90s had been PC vs Mac but you had to go to IBM for one or more critical pieces of software or software distribution infrastructure. The Cambrian explosion IBM-PC compatability did…

> The Cambrian explosion IBM-PC compatability didn’t happen overnight of course.

There's a recording of an interview with Bill Gates floating around where he pretty much takes credit for that. He claims (paraphrasing because I listened to it almost 20 years ago) that he suggested a lot of the hardware to IBM because he knew he could repurpose DOS for it.