AI won't use as much electricity as we are told (2024)
johnquigginblog.substack.com
AI won't use as much electricity as we are told (2024)
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Re: AI won't use as much electricity as we are told (2024)
#2[deleted]
Re: AI won't use as much electricity as we are told (2024)
#3> By contrast, the unglamorous and largely disregarded business of making cement accounts for around 7 per cent of global emissions.
Oh, that's not a good example of the point they're trying to make. The emissions from concrete are a point of major concern and are frequently discussed. A ton of effort is being put into trying to reduce the problem, and there are widespread calls to reduce the use of the material as much as possible.
Re: AI won't use as much electricity as we are told (2024)
#4> By contrast, the unglamorous and largely disregarded business of making cement accounts for around 7 per cent of global emissions. Oh, that's not a good example of the point they're trying to make. The emissions from concrete are a point of major concern and are frequently discussed. A ton of effort is being put into trying to reduce the problem, and there are widespread calls to reduce the use of the material as m…
The only useful point that they make is that predictions about unending growth are always wrong in detail. Every actual hockey stick turns into a sigmoid, then falls. Meanwhile, a new hockey stick comes along.
Re: AI won't use as much electricity as we are told (2024)
#5> By contrast, the unglamorous and largely disregarded business of making cement accounts for around 7 per cent of global emissions. Oh, that's not a good example of the point they're trying to make. The emissions from concrete are a point of major concern and are frequently discussed. A ton of effort is being put into trying to reduce the problem, and there are widespread calls to reduce the use of the material as m…
Also modern infrastructure is literally built on concrete. Whereas the broad benefits of AI are dubious by comparison.
Re: AI won't use as much electricity as we are told (2024)
#6Many "new" expenditures replace existing stuff. The initial versions are often the worst iterations we'll see so even though the capability is going up, the energy usage will go down over time. It isn't universal (as we've seen a lot of new true growth), but it is common.
Re: AI won't use as much electricity as we are told (2024)
#7And what about the predictions of energy use that did pan out, like air conditioning and stuff? Also in 1999 how many personal computer companies were restarting nuclear power plants to fuel their projected energy consumption? Feels like a weird argument to make when the investments into AI I fra are literally measured in gigawatts. Feels like a weird argument in general - ai consuming lots of energy isn't some weird degrowth conspiracy theory
Re: AI won't use as much electricity as we are told (2024)
#8And what about the predictions of energy use that did pan out, like air conditioning and stuff? Also in 1999 how many personal computer companies were restarting nuclear power plants to fuel their projected energy consumption? Feels like a weird argument to make when the investments into AI I fra are literally measured in gigawatts. Feels like a weird argument in general - ai consuming lots of energy isn't some weird…
Let’s not forget Sam Altman tried to raise $7 trillion dollars for it somehow as well.
Re: AI won't use as much electricity as we are told (2024)
#9> But we have been here before. Predictions of this kind have been made ever since the emergence of the Internet
I don't think I live in the same world as the author. Ever since the emergence of the Internet, "stuff related to IT" has been using more and more energy.
It's like saying "5G won't use as much electricity as we are told! In fact 5G is more efficient than 4G". Yep, except that 5G enables us to use a lot more of it, and therefore we use more electricity.
It's called the rebound effect.
Re: AI won't use as much electricity as we are told (2024)
#10> By contrast, the unglamorous and largely disregarded business of making cement accounts for around 7 per cent of global emissions. Oh, that's not a good example of the point they're trying to make. The emissions from concrete are a point of major concern and are frequently discussed. A ton of effort is being put into trying to reduce the problem, and there are widespread calls to reduce the use of the material as m…
The only useful point that they make is that predictions about unending growth are always wrong in detail. Every actual hockey stick turns into a sigmoid, then falls. Meanwhile, a new hockey stick comes along.
But AI training has been behaving like Bitcoin mining, which constantly increases the difficulty. AI companies so far have been having to release costlier and costlier models to keep up with the Joneses. We don’t want the final iteration to be a Dyson sphere around the sun or the black hole at the center of our galaxy so Gemini 10,000 Pro can tell us “Let there be light.” Or maybe we do, I don’t know.