Some thoughts on LLMs and software development
martinfowler.com
Some thoughts on LLMs and software development
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Re: Some thoughts on LLMs and software development
#2[flagged]
Re: Some thoughts on LLMs and software development
#3> All major technological advances have come with economic bubbles, from canals and railroads to the internet.
Is this actually correct? I don't see any evidence for a "airflight bubble" or a "car bubble" or a "loom bubble" at the technologies' invention. Also the "canal bubble" wasn't about the technology, it was about the speculation on a series of big canals but we had been making canals for a long time. More importantly, even if it was correct, there are plenty of bubbles (if not significantly more) around things that didn't have value or tech that didn't matter.
Re: Some thoughts on LLMs and software development
#4For my money, I used this analogy at work:
Before AI, we were trying to save money, but through a different technique: Prompting (overseas) humans.
After over a decade of trying that, we learned that had... flaws. So round 2: Prompting (smart) robots.
The job losses? This is just Offshoring 2.0; complete with everyone getting to re-learn the lessons of Offshoring 1.0.
Re: Some thoughts on LLMs and software development
#5> All major technological advances have come with economic bubbles, from canals and railroads to the internet. Is this actually correct? I don't see any evidence for a "airflight bubble" or a "car bubble" or a "loom bubble" at the technologies' invention. Also the "canal bubble" wasn't about the technology, it was about the speculation on a series of big canals but we had been making canals for a long time. More impo…
The Intelligent Investor by Graham talks about investors putting so much money into airlines and air freight that it became impossible to make a return. I don't know if you would call that a bubble, maybe just over exuberance.
Re: Some thoughts on LLMs and software development
#6> hallucinations aren’t a bug of LLMs, they are a feature. Indeed they are the feature. All an LLM does is produce hallucinations, it’s just that we find some of them useful.
Nice.
Re: Some thoughts on LLMs and software development
#7For my money, I used this analogy at work: Before AI, we were trying to save money, but through a different technique: Prompting (overseas) humans. After over a decade of trying that, we learned that had... flaws. So round 2: Prompting (smart) robots. The job losses? This is just Offshoring 2.0; complete with everyone getting to re-learn the lessons of Offshoring 1.0.
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Re: Some thoughts on LLMs and software development
#8For my money, I used this analogy at work: Before AI, we were trying to save money, but through a different technique: Prompting (overseas) humans. After over a decade of trying that, we learned that had... flaws. So round 2: Prompting (smart) robots. The job losses? This is just Offshoring 2.0; complete with everyone getting to re-learn the lessons of Offshoring 1.0.
> Prompting (overseas) humans [...] After over a decade of trying that, we learned that had... flaws.
I think this is a US-centric point of view, and seems (though I hope it's not!) slightly condescending to those of us not in the US.
Software engineering is more than what happens to US-based businesses and their leadership commanding hundreds or thousands of overseas humans. Offshoring in software is certainly a US concern (and to a lesser extent, other nations suffer it), but is NOT a universal problem of software engineering. Software engineering happens in multiple countries, and while the big money is in the US, that's not all there is to it.
Software engineering exists "natively" in countries other than the US, so any problems with it should probably (also) be framed without exclusive reference to the US.
Re: Some thoughts on LLMs and software development
#9For my money, I used this analogy at work: Before AI, we were trying to save money, but through a different technique: Prompting (overseas) humans. After over a decade of trying that, we learned that had... flaws. So round 2: Prompting (smart) robots. The job losses? This is just Offshoring 2.0; complete with everyone getting to re-learn the lessons of Offshoring 1.0.
I'm sure the blacksmiths and weavers will find solace in that take. Their time will return!
Re: Some thoughts on LLMs and software development
#10> All major technological advances have come with economic bubbles, from canals and railroads to the internet. Is this actually correct? I don't see any evidence for a "airflight bubble" or a "car bubble" or a "loom bubble" at the technologies' invention. Also the "canal bubble" wasn't about the technology, it was about the speculation on a series of big canals but we had been making canals for a long time. More impo…
Apologies for arguing from first principles, but for anything that spurs a lot of activity, the only alternative to a bubble is this: people ramp up investment and activity and enthusiasm only as much as the underlying thing can handle, then gradually taper off the increase and gently level off at the equilibrium "carrying capacity" of the new technology.
Does that sound like any human, ever, to you?
(The only time there isn't a bubble is when the thing just isn't that interesting to people and so there's never a big wave of uptake in the first place.)