Black Swan Farming
paulgraham.com
Black Swan Farming
1–10 of 321 posts
Re: Black Swan Farming
#2I disagree with some of the meta-cognition.
Take the "seems like a bad idea" bit. Many of the big hits are really well-worn ideas done with better marketing, better timing, and a user experience which makes it available to new markets.
Dropbox? File sharing. Facebook? Geocities. Both are interesting in that they take something that was a giant pain in the neck but useful enough to put up with anyway, and then they make it usable enough that virtually anyone can do that stuff routinely.
But the meta-cognition isn't all that important. What's important is that they're getting out there and helping new companies learn and grow. They can be wrong all day (or not) about the why because they've developed a process which provably works, and which they can measure and improve upon.
Re: Black Swan Farming
#3I disagree with some of the meta-cognition. Take the "seems like a bad idea" bit. Many of the big hits are really well-worn ideas done with better marketing, better timing, and a user experience which makes it available to new markets. Dropbox? File sharing. Facebook? Geocities. Both are interesting in that they take something that was a giant pain in the neck but useful enough to put up with anyway, and then they ma…
Can you honestly not tell the difference between Facebook and Geocities?
Also, the fact that Dropbox and Facebook were "unoriginal" is exactly what made them seem like bad ideas at the time. I saw Dropbox present at demoday, and the main question on my mind was, "How is this different from the million other attempts at online file storage? (xdrive, etc)".
Re: Black Swan Farming
#4History tends to get rewritten by big successes, so that in retrospect it seems obvious they were going to make it big. For that reason one of my most valuable memories is how lame Facebook sounded to me when I first heard about it.
As a thought experiment, I would love to hear what pg and team would have thought about the following companies, had they applied to YC before they grew in popularity (assuming YC existed when they were starting out):
PayPal, Twitter, Pandora, SalesForce, Instagram, FourSquare, and Pinterest. And perhaps a few others as well.
Re: Black Swan Farming
#5There will be several self professed disagreements posted here citing very specific situations.
Re: Black Swan Farming
#6I still shake my head with AirBnB, a total ripoff of couch surfing. For it to be comparable in any way, shape or form to the innovative and beautifully executed Dropbox boggles the mind.
Re: Black Swan Farming
#7Is it possible that this is simply just the effect of a Bell Curve (i.e, the normal (Gaussian) distribution of a field)?
Re: Black Swan Farming
#8There is going to be nothing that will "explain" why or which companies could be the big winners. Trying to is falling into the narrative fallacy trap Taleb writes about.
Best strategy is to "win" in other ways, and let the cards fall where they may.
Re: Black Swan Farming
#9I disagree with some of the meta-cognition. Take the "seems like a bad idea" bit. Many of the big hits are really well-worn ideas done with better marketing, better timing, and a user experience which makes it available to new markets. Dropbox? File sharing. Facebook? Geocities. Both are interesting in that they take something that was a giant pain in the neck but useful enough to put up with anyway, and then they ma…
Can you honestly not tell the difference between Facebook and Geocities? Also, the fact that Dropbox and Facebook were "unoriginal" is exactly what made them seem like bad ideas at the time. I saw Dropbox present at demoday, and the main question on my mind was, "How is this different from the million other attempts at online file storage? (xdrive, etc)".
If I had the time, I would do a bunch of research into trying to determine what made Dropbox, Facebook, AirBnB, et al, succeed in their markets. I assume the answer involves the founding teams, but what traits did these founders have that others did not?
I don't have the time though, so if any bloggers/journalists are reading, this could be an interesting article, or even book, if you get enough info.
Whether or not this info would actually help another team become successful is another story though.
Re: Black Swan Farming
#10Is it possible that this is simply just the effect of a Bell Curve (i.e, the normal (Gaussian) distribution of a field)?