Peter Thiel Sells Majority Of His Facebook Shares In Deal Planned Pre-IPO
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Re: Peter Thiel Sells Majority Of His Facebook Shares In Deal Planned Pre-IPO
#2I'm going to buy when it gets closer to $10 per share. Half the world uses Facebook every day so let's not pretend it isn't an awesome business with utterly massive potential.
Re: Peter Thiel Sells Majority Of His Facebook Shares In Deal Planned Pre-IPO
#3I'm going to buy when it gets closer to $10 per share. Half the world uses Facebook every day so let's not pretend it isn't an awesome business with utterly massive potential.
"awesome business" and "massive potential" aren't mutually exclusive events. It can have massive potential, but never deliver and still be a terrible business.
Sure, it's got a lot of upside if you can buy it at the right price, but up till now, it hasn't shown advertisers (who make up the majority of their revenue) that it can deliver customers as acceptable CPAs. Until that happens, we'll still be waiting for facebook to be an "awesome business."
Re: Peter Thiel Sells Majority Of His Facebook Shares In Deal Planned Pre-IPO
#4I'm going to buy when it gets closer to $10 per share. Half the world uses Facebook every day so let's not pretend it isn't an awesome business with utterly massive potential.
"awesome business" and "massive potential" aren't mutually exclusive events. It can have massive potential, but never deliver and still be a terrible business. Sure, it's got a lot of upside if you can buy it at the right price, but up till now, it hasn't shown advertisers (who make up the majority of their revenue) that it can deliver customers as acceptable CPAs. Until that happens, we'll still be waiting for faceb…
I don't think CPAs are the right metric. Facebook is massively engaging. I think TV is the most natural synergy b/c people socialize around it today but only in one household.
Facebook should also launch a web search similar to Google just go capture some market share in search-driven advertising.
Around the world, Facebook is the fastest loading website (it often beats Google). Its infrastructure is ready to make a truly global play of some kind.
Expect something huge after the stock price stabilizes a bit.
Re: Peter Thiel Sells Majority Of His Facebook Shares In Deal Planned Pre-IPO
#5Facebook have a problem that Google hasn't.
1. Their social graph is great but it has one major flaw. It's very bad at profiling intent.
They also have a problem they share with Google.
2. They haven't found a way to make advertising work on mobile, an increasing part of their visits.
Unless they find a way to solve those two areas they will not be able grow their revenue without hurting their visitors.
Re: Peter Thiel Sells Majority Of His Facebook Shares In Deal Planned Pre-IPO
#6I think this is just thiel putting his money where his mouth is. Anybody who has followed him knows it's no secret that he's spoken out against companies solving small problems and has even implied facebook to be squarely in that camp.
Re: Peter Thiel Sells Majority Of His Facebook Shares In Deal Planned Pre-IPO
#7Earlier quoted context omitted.
"awesome business" and "massive potential" aren't mutually exclusive events. It can have massive potential, but never deliver and still be a terrible business. Sure, it's got a lot of upside if you can buy it at the right price, but up till now, it hasn't shown advertisers (who make up the majority of their revenue) that it can deliver customers as acceptable CPAs. Until that happens, we'll still be waiting for faceb…
I don't think CPAs are the right metric. Facebook is massively engaging. I think TV is the most natural synergy b/c people socialize around it today but only in one household. Facebook should also launch a web search similar to Google just go capture some market share in search-driven advertising. Around the world, Facebook is the fastest loading website (it often beats Google). Its infrastructure is ready to make a…
Perhaps CPA is not the right metric. But a bunch of hype that glosses over the fact that Facebook doesn't really actually make very much money is not the right metric, either.
Re: Peter Thiel Sells Majority Of His Facebook Shares In Deal Planned Pre-IPO
#8Facebook have a problem that Google hasn't. 1. Their social graph is great but it has one major flaw. It's very bad at profiling intent. They also have a problem they share with Google. 2. They haven't found a way to make advertising work on mobile, an increasing part of their visits. Unless they find a way to solve those two areas they will not be able grow their revenue without hurting their visitors.
> 2. They haven't found a way to make advertising work on mobile, an increasing part of their visits.
And herein is the problem: Apple - Apple is so against advertising that they created their own iAd network to keep other companies out of the game (it doesn't have to really be a success - just enough to keep devs off competing ad networks).
As long as Apple is influential in the mobile world, Google and Facebook are going to have a tough time with mobile ads... do consumers actually want ads? Apple is betting no, and as far as they're concerned - screw the devs and advertisers.
Re: Peter Thiel Sells Majority Of His Facebook Shares In Deal Planned Pre-IPO
#9Facebook have a problem that Google hasn't. 1. Their social graph is great but it has one major flaw. It's very bad at profiling intent. They also have a problem they share with Google. 2. They haven't found a way to make advertising work on mobile, an increasing part of their visits. Unless they find a way to solve those two areas they will not be able grow their revenue without hurting their visitors.
It's not just the graph. Intent is very fleeting. You can't know "instantaneous intent" from someone's history and graph (e.g. what will be my next Google query?)
More about this point on my blog if you're interested: http://diegobasch.com/facebook-and-twitter-dont-know-what-yo...
Re: Peter Thiel Sells Majority Of His Facebook Shares In Deal Planned Pre-IPO
#10Earlier quoted context omitted.
"awesome business" and "massive potential" aren't mutually exclusive events. It can have massive potential, but never deliver and still be a terrible business. Sure, it's got a lot of upside if you can buy it at the right price, but up till now, it hasn't shown advertisers (who make up the majority of their revenue) that it can deliver customers as acceptable CPAs. Until that happens, we'll still be waiting for faceb…
I don't think CPAs are the right metric. Facebook is massively engaging. I think TV is the most natural synergy b/c people socialize around it today but only in one household. Facebook should also launch a web search similar to Google just go capture some market share in search-driven advertising. Around the world, Facebook is the fastest loading website (it often beats Google). Its infrastructure is ready to make a…
if TV is the model facebook should acquire synchtube.